China Briefing 28 November 2024: How China approached COP29; Xi cuts energy deals in South America; Solar’s ‘disorderly’ expansion

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China’s role at COP29 and beyond

‘COOPERATIVE’ COP: China’s “role” at the COP29 climate talks, which concluded over the weekend in Baku, Azerbaijan, was “markedly different to previous years”, with its negotiators being “unusually cooperative”, according to an anonymous “chief negotiator” for a “powerful” country quoted by BBC News. Bloomberg cited sources “close to the Chinese delegation” explaining that “Chinese officials moved to soothe angry delegations from India, Saudi Arabia, Africa and the small island group” during the tense final plenary. It added that China’s delegation head Zhao Yingmin, who is also the vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), held “one-on-one conversations with delegates in the final hours to warn things would be worse without COP29’s finance agreement”. COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev wrote in the Guardian that China “coordinat[ed] their response to the negotiations…with the G77 group”. Babayev also claimed that “the Chinese were willing to offer more [climate finance] if others did so too”. (For more on China’s role at COP29, see the Spotlight.)

GLOBAL CALLS: As concerns over the US’s future role loomed over the two-week summit, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the world “will need China’s continued leadership” to meet climate goals, Politico reported. This was echoed by South Africa’s environment minister, who said China “has an opportunity to lead the global fight against climate change”, according to Bloomberg. BBC News quoted Jonathan Pershing, program director of environment at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, saying that, should China become the de-facto leader at future COPs, it “won’t lead from the front, like the US and Europe”, but instead would “discreetly interven[e] to unblock disputes…behind closed doors”.

CHINA’S REACTION: In response to Stiell, Politico quoted Zhao saying: “China has contributed in addressing climate change. But, in the future, China will do our best to contribute more.” Zhao also said in an interview with business news outlet 21st Century Herald that China will be “the backbone of the global response to climate change”. Nevertheless, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told Beijing News that “people expect China and the EU to work together to fill this gap [of US leadership], which is a very good wish, but, in practice, it is very difficult”. (Read more in the Spotlight below.) China’s foreign ministry noted that agreements at COP29 demonstrated global “willingness” to address climate change, although it added that developed countries should “effectively fulfil their obligations and responsibilities”, Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper said. A commentary in the party-affiliated People’s Daily under the nom de plume “Heyin”, which is used for articles expressing the view of party leadership on international affairs, said COP29 “consolidated the momentum” of the global energy transition, adding that “no matter how the [geopolitical] climate changes, China’s determination…to actively address climate change will remain unchanged”. Elsewhere, an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily argued COP29 was an “unusual climate diplomacy success” as it broke “the long-standing multilateral negotiations stalemate over climate financing”.

New China research

EARLY PEAK: Meanwhile, on the sidelines of COP29, an assessment by research institute the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) of China’s energy transition in 2024 found that the clean energy industry “continued to exceed forecasts”, but that spiking energy consumption meant record additions served only to “stabilise emissions, not to push them down”. It added that 52% of experts surveyed by CREA expected China’s coal consumption to peak by 2025 and 44% believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025.

POLLUTING PROVINCES: Al Gore-backed research institute Climate Trace released a report finding that Shanghai was the world’s “most polluting” city, Fortune said. It added that “seven states or provinces spew more than 1bn metric tonnes of greenhouse gases [per year]”, six of which are in China – the exception being Texas.

POWER SYSTEM REFORM: The International Energy Agency also presented a report at COP29 examining the “evolving flexibility requirements of China’s power system” during its energy transition, finding that “non-fossil resources, such as hydropower, battery storage and demand response, could fulfil nearly 60% of [China’s] short-term flexibility needs by 2030”, according to a press statement.

‘INSUFFICIENT’ SPEED: The 2024 Global Carbon Neutrality Progress Report, released by Beijing’s Tsinghua University, evaluated progress in 151 countries that have set carbon neutrality targets. The report said that developing countries have higher “ambitions” and willingness to reduce emissions than developed countries. However, it added that the “current speed of renewable energy development globally is insufficient” to meet the target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 – a goal set at COP28 in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5C.

Xi at APEC and G20 

SUNNIER CLIMES: As his subordinates hashed out details in Baku, President Xi Jinping’s attendance of the APEC economic leaders’ meeting in Peru and G20 summit in Brazil “fuelled expectations that China will continue championing…better global governance”, China Daily said, adding that during APEC Xi “emphasised the importance of innovation, openness, green development and inclusive growth”. Xi also inaugurated Peru’s Chancay port – built by a Chinese company – as Beijing “look[s] to further tap into resource-rich Latin America”, Reuters reported. At the G20 summit, Xi noted the importance of supporting developing countries in “responding to…climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental pollution”, state news agency Xinhua said. China also signed 37 agreements with Brazil, according to the Associated Press, which included specific agreements on mining, solar and nuclear power. 
UK-CHINA TIES: In the first high-level meeting between the UK and China since 2018, UK prime minister Keir Starmer told Xi that the UK “would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate”, Reuters reported. Starmer told the UK House of Commons that the two countries need to “work together on challenges such as climate change and delivering growth”, adding that he and Xi “agreed a new dialogue on these issues, which [UK chancellor Rachel Reeves] will take forward with vice premier He [Lifeng] in Beijing” next year, according to a transcript of his remarks.

‘Disorderly expansion’ of solar factories targeted

RAISING REQUIREMENTS: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) raised minimum capital requirements for construction and expansion of solar-manufacturing projects, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post said, adding that MIIT also urged manufacturers to limit projects that are “merely meant to increase capacity”. Lin Boqiang, director of Xiamen University’s China Energy Policy Research Institute, told business news outlet Yicai the move will “control the disorderly expansion of production capacity”.

LOWERING REBATES: China’s finance and tax bodies also “announced a reduction in the export tax rebate” for solar products, “squeezing profit margins” and possibly leading to companies “increasing export prices”, PV Magazine reported, in what may be “part of a longer-term strategy”. Finance news outlet Wall Street CN noted that rebates for batteries will also shrink, but that manufacturers will still have a “price advantage in overseas markets”. 

EXPERT VIEWS: Liu Shijin, former vice-president of the Development Research Centre (DRC) and chief advisor at the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), said in a speech covered by Yicai that “overcapacity” is a “normal process of market competition”, adding that the government should avoid “disturbing” industries through “administrative intervention and unfair competition”, and instead encourage market expansion by “accelerating the shift from dual-control of energy consumption to dual-control of carbon emissions”.

COP29: How China approached the UN climate talks in Baku

As ever at COPs, a key question was how the world’s current largest annual emitter, China, would approach the talks. This year, with Donald Trump being reelected as the US president, more expectations fell on China to step up and do more.

In this article, Carbon Brief summaries some of the key points China made at COP29. This is a summary of “China at COP29” in Carbon Brief’s in-depth summary of the event’s key outcomes.

China arrived at the COP29 UN climate talks in Baku with the fifth-largest delegation, continuing its recent trend of major showings at the annual summit.

At the high-level opening of the talks, China’s vice premier Ding Xuexiang – who is president Xi Jinping’s “special representative” at COP – declared that his country had “provided and mobilised project funds of more than 177bn yuan ($24.5bn) for developing countries’ climate response” since 2016. 

This was the first time China used the language of climate finance to talk about its overseas aid. It quickly drew attention to Beijing’s intentions and levels of ambition for climate finance. 

Kate Logan, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), wrote on Twitter that this placed China “on the same order – if not higher than – many developed countries’ efforts” on climate finance. 

Dialogue Earth reported that Beijing has contributed more than $30bn to global climate finance since the launch of its “Belt and Road Initiative”, putting China “on a par with the UK, to become the joint fifth-largest provider of climate finance after Japan, Germany, the US and France”. 

However, entering week two, China’s stance on climate finance remained firm – it said it would not agree to make any compulsory contributions, including to the new climate finance goal (NCQG) that was being negotiated at the summit. 

China’s new climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, replacing Xie Zhenhua, told the Paper, a Shanghai-based outlet, that paying for the NCQG was “their business”, referring to developed countries.

During the closing stages of COP29, Xia Yingxian, director of the department of climate change of the Ministry of Environment and Ecology, said that a serious climate finance offer from developed countries was the “master switch and golden key” to a deal in Baku. 

Liu was also quoted by state-run newspaper China Daily, saying China is “not obliged to contribute to the post-2025 climate financing target that is expected to be announced during COP29”. 

At the closing plenary, Carbon Brief heard Zhao Yingmin, head of Chinese delegation and the vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), saying that developed countries’ NCQG commitments were still “fall far short of meeting the needs of developing nations” and that developed countries’ “financial obligations must be further clarified”.

Nevertheless, China said it remained open to multilateral cooperation on climate change. 

Chen Zhihua, deputy director of China’s National Centre for Climate Strategy and International Cooperation, told Carbon Brief that Donald Trump being reelected as the US president “certainly is a big thing that people talk about and [we] have concerns about how things will turn out”. 

He added: “It will have big impacts, but China won’t change its strategy – we will cooperate with whoever for global cooperation on climate change.” 

Wen Hua, deputy director-general of the Department of Resources Conservation and Environmental Protection at China’s top planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at another event attended by Carbon Brief: “China is willing to take a more active role in global climate governance.”

Throughout COP29, China strongly identified itself as a developing country. China, together with the G77 group of developing counties, rejected an initial draft for the NCQG framework. According to BBC News, they wanted “public grants of $500bn per year”.

At the South-South Cooperation on Climate Change forum hosted by China, Carbon Brief heard Huang Runqiu, minister of the MEE, saying that the world needs multilateral cooperation on combating climate change, but that “green trade barriers” prevent better cooperation, especially for developing countries.

Wang Can, director of the department of environmental planning and management at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, explained to Carbon Brief that the “green trade barriers” are “bans and tariffs…mainly from the US” on renewable technology products. 

Both Chinese academics and multiple senior officials expressed their desire for international cooperation on energy transition at COP29. 

For example, Wen called the energy transition “fundamental” for China at an event hosted by the country’s COP29 pavilion. 

China also stated some of its specific targets and actions for addressing climate change, such as the latest emissions standards for coalbed methane introduced by Liu at a methane summit held during COP29. 

Regarding China’s next NDC, an anonymous scholar told Carbon Brief that shifts in the new pledge could lie in “adjusting the timeline of [the] ‘dual-carbon’ goal”, which currently targets a peak in emissions “before 2030” and carbon neutrality “by 2060”. (For more views, see Carbon Brief’s “Experts: What to expect in China’s climate pledge for 2035.”)

China has already adjusted its “dual-carbon” goal from “achieving carbon peak by 2030” to “before 2030”. Bai Quan, director of the Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research (AMR), a government-affiliated “national high-end thinktank”, told Carbon Brief that while “we would love to try our best…we can’t rule out all possibilities to peak even earlier than planned”.

(Read Carbon Brief’s full-length interview with Bai and his colleague Lyu Wenbin.)

China’s historical carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within its borders are now higher than the 27 member states of the EU combined, new Carbon Brief analysis found, although it is “still far behind” and “unlikely to ever overtake” the US total. The analysis – which was covered by the New York Times under the headline: “China’s soaring emissions are upending climate politics” – noted that when viewed on a per-capita basis, using 2024 figures, China’s contribution is “just 227tCO2 per capita, less than a third of the 682tCO2 for people in the EU27”.

PROGRESS UPDATE: China Water Risk published an analysis of China’s progress towards its carbon targets and its “potential” to accelerate its shift away from coal.

MINERAL TRANSITION: The China-Global South Podcast, aired by the Sinic Podcast Network, discussed “Indonesia’s uncomfortable position squeezed between China and the US in the race to dominate transition mineral supply chains”.

KEYNOTE: The South China Morning Post interviewed Ma Jun, founder of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE), on prospects for future US-China climate diplomacy and China’s path to carbon neutrality.
MEXICAN STANDOFF: The electric vehicle-focused newsletter Dunne Insights assessed why Chinese car exports to Mexico have spiked in recent months, and how it might be “pressured” by the US and Canada to respond.

The number of extreme weather events in China that had their “severity or likelihood” increased by climate change, out of a total of 114 attribution studies covering the country, according to Carbon Brief analysis. The figures come from Carbon Brief’s updated “attribution map”, which covers every attribution study published since the method was developed in 2004. The map includes more than 600 studies, with China making up 16%. More than 70% of the China-focused studies were published in the past four years, significantly higher than average.

Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China 

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 

The number of heat-related diabetes deaths in Chinese cities is expected to increase by the end of the century as a result of global warming, a new study warned. The authors predicted deaths due to extreme heat over 2010-2100 in 32 “major” Chinese cities. They projected that under the low warming SSP1-2.6 scenario, the heat-attributable fraction of diabetes deaths will rise from 2.3% in the 2010s to 4.6% in the 2090s. Under the high warming SSP5-8.5 scenario, the fraction could rise to 19.2% in the 2090s, they added.

Provincial inequalities in life cycle carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutants from electric vehicles in China

Communications Earth & Environment 

Electric vehicles in China have nearly a 12% reduction in CO2 as compared to internal combustion engines, according to new research. Researchers carried out a life-cycle analysis of internal combustion engines, plug-in hybrid vehicles and battery EVs in each of China’s provinces. They found that while battery EVs reduced CO2 and nitrogen oxide emissions, they had higher emissions of sulphur dioxide and particulate matter. The authors wrote that “improving technological progress and optimising electricity mix will greatly assist in achieving emissions reduction”.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to [email protected]