As renewables rise, the world may be nearing a climate turning point » Yale Climate Connections

Climate pollution caused by burning fossil fuels hit a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024, marking a 0.8% rise from the previous year – and dashing hopes that a peak in global emissions might occur this year.

That’s according to the latest annual Global Carbon Budget, which underscores a deeper challenge: the world’s ongoing reliance on coal, oil, and gas, which continues to drive emissions and disrupt the climate. The report, organized by a global consortium of scientists centered at the University of Exeter, paints a complex picture of global energy trends, with troubling increases in some areas and signs of progress in others.

Emissions from most wealthy countries fell this year, though by relatively small amounts in many cases. Meanwhile, climate pollution from most developing economies rose, driven by economic growth and a rising demand for energy. Global consumption of coal, oil, and gas all increased, though coal and oil saw less than 1% growth.

While global emissions have yet to reach a clear “peak” – the point at which carbon pollution stops rising and eventually shifts to a consistent decline – there are signs that this turning point could be on the horizon. The rapid deployment of clean technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs) may help accelerate this shift, although much faster progress will be needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

These global trends have urgent implications for our climate, economies, and ecosystems. To understand what’s behind this year’s record highs and what they signal for the future, let’s explore the key factors shaping climate pollution today.

China’s climate emissions are peaking

Given China’s status as the world’s largest emitter, understanding its emissions trajectory is key to assessing global climate progress. Between 2000 and 2023, China’s climate pollution more than tripled. In 2023, the country’s emissions grew nearly 5%. But this year they remained nearly unchanged, rising by an estimated 0.2%.

Most of China’s explosive emissions growth since the turn of the century stemmed from a rapid expansion of coal power, built to meet the energy demands of the country’s fast-growing economy. But in recent years, clean energy has taken over as the dominant source of new power generation in China, so emissions from coal increased by just 0.3% in 2024.

And more than half of new vehicle sales in China are now fully electric or plug-in hybrids. Global Carbon Budget estimates that the country’s oil consumption declined by 0.8% in 2024 and is expected to continue falling as the transition to electric transportation continues.

Other industry trends are at play here, too. Real estate construction activity in China has been contracting due to a glut of unsold homes and unfinished projects. As a result, Chinese climate pollution from cement production decreased by a dramatic 8.1% in 2024. That was offset by an 8% increase in the country’s consumption of natural gas, which is largely composed of methane, a potent climate-warming gas. But China’s solar and wind energy production is growing much faster than gas power, and China’s clean energy supply may soon be sufficient to meet the country’s power demand and stem the need for more natural gas.

Taken together, the evidence indicates that China’s climate pollution may have peaked this year and be poised for a decline in the near future. Given that China is the world’s second-most populated country with the highest total emissions of any country, that’s a positive sign for efforts to curb global climate pollution.

Other wealthy countries made some progress, too

While China was the standout, climate pollution declined in most other wealthy developed countries in 2024 – although often by a smaller margin than in the prior year.

The European Union was successful in curbing climate pollution by an estimated 3.8%, although less than its 8.4% decline in 2023. That’s likely due to the fact that Europe dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian gas in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine but couldn’t sustain such a rapid phaseout this year. European gas consumption nevertheless dropped 1.3% in 2024. Coal was responsible for most of the countries’ emissions decline, falling by nearly 16% thanks to the continued transition to clean power generation.

In the United States, climate pollution fell by about 0.6%. Coal consumption continued its long-term decline, and EV sales contributed to a 0.7% reduction in oil consumption. But despite continuing deployment of clean power generation, American natural gas consumption rose by about 1% in 2024.

Why? After more than a decade of steady total power consumption, U.S. electricity demand is now growing, driven largely by the electrification of vehicles and buildings, along with the growth of data centers, artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrency mining. Solar, wind, and nuclear power deployments have only been sufficient to meet some of those growing needs, and so natural gas use has modestly risen to meet the rest, while some coal power plant retirements have also been delayed.

In some other examples around the rest of the wealthy world, climate pollution declined by a fraction of a percent in Canada and Australia. Although Australian coal and gas consumption significantly contracted due to rapid renewable energy growth, its oil use rose as EV sales slumped this year. In neighboring New Zealand, climate pollution fell by nearly 5% behind a drop in coal and oil use.

The story was similar in Japan and South Korea, both of which saw a 4% emissions decline as consumption of all fossil fuels fell in 2024. And the United Kingdom reduced its climate pollution by nearly 3% thanks to large drops in coal and gas, despite oil consumption rising this year.

Developing nations need help to curb their climate pollution

Emissions rose in India and the rest of the world, behind increases in the consumption of all fossil fuels. That’s the norm in developing countries, whose energy demands rise as their economies grow and more citizens rise out of poverty.

To date, most of that increased demand has been met through the burning of fossil fuels, but that needn’t be the case. Many developing countries would prefer to leapfrog fossil fuels and instead meet their growing needs with clean energy. But that requires international investment, which has historically been lacking.

This was one of the key topics of the recent 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. An independent climate finance expert group recommended $1 trillion in international climate finance per year by 2030, including around $300 billion supplied by governments, supplemented by public and private finance. The countries participating in CO29 reached a deal close to meeting those recommendations. But it remains to be seen whether the promised money can be delivered – most of the funds are hoped to be raised via private financing – and many developing countries were left deeply dissatisfied.

Nature’s role in absorbing climate pollution

While human activities continue to drive the rise in global emissions, nature also plays a vital role in counteracting some of these effects. Consistent with past years, Earth’s soils and plants absorbed about one-quarter of human climate pollution in 2024, and the oceans removed close to a further 30%. The remaining 45% was added to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

That level of natural carbon removal is a welcome relief, because in 2023, Earth’s soil and plants absorbed an unusually small amount of carbon, leading some to speculate that nature’s carbon sink could be failing. That instead appears to have been a temporary result of a significant El Niño event last year, which tends to cause drought conditions that lessen the biosphere’s short-term carbon uptake.

Measures to reduce deforestation and expand forests have also delivered some success over the past decade. While deforestation is still a problem in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Congo, the rate of global forest removal in recent years is only half as much as a decade ago.

But extensive wildfires this year, especially climate-worsened fires in the Amazon, hampered the total amount of climate pollution absorbed by nature in 2024. Concerns remain that as the planet continues to warm and amplify droughts and wildfires, Earth’s ability to remove human climate pollution could begin to lessen.

A turning point in global climate pollution?

While global emissions trends illustrate the challenges we face, there are signs that humanity may be nearing a peak in global climate pollution. Emissions from wealthy countries have been declining, but these efforts must accelerate, and financial support for developing countries is essential to help them transition to clean energy solutions.

China’s shift in emissions growth offers some hope for the climate’s future, indicating that even the largest emitters can make meaningful progress – by taking bold action today.