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Anger over Labour’s position on the war in Gaza led to some council losses and raised fears over its performance in the West Midlands mayoralty contest, clouding an otherwise strong set of local election results for the party.
Britain’s main opposition party stacked up gains across England in areas ranging from the north-east coastal “red wall” town of Hartlepool to Rushmoor in the southern county of Hampshire.
The spread of victories was a positive omen for Sir Keir Starmer ahead of the general election expected this year, particularly given Labour’s thumping by-election win against the Tories in Blackpool South.
But support appeared to drain away in some areas with larger proportions of Muslim voters, a sign of the damage done by the party’s evolving position on the Israel-Hamas war since October.
The issue threatened to derail Labour’s attempt to unseat Andy Street as Tory mayor of the West Midlands; that result is not expected until Saturday.
One senior Labour figure said its candidate Richard Parker had made gains in areas such as Northfield and Dudley but had shed support in inner-city Birmingham to pro-Palestine independent Akhmed Yakoob.
“We have got inner city wards where he [Yakoob] has picked up 70 per cent of the vote, that has put Richard’s chances in peril . . . in wards with lots of Muslim residents pretty much all of them are lost,” they said.
A failure to take the West Midlands would compound Labour’s unsuccessful run at ousting Tees Valley Tory mayor Lord Ben Houchen.
The conflict in the Middle East has also cash a shadow over the London mayoral election, where Labour and the Tories say the race is very tight. Allies of incumbent Labour mayor Sadiq Khan fear turnout was lower than expected among progressive voters, in part because of apathy but also frustration over the party’s stance on Gaza.
Khan is still expected to win the vote, due to be announced on Saturday afternoon, adding to a set of local election results that point to a comfortable win for Labour at the general election.
Starmer has been criticised by some traditional Labour supporters for only gradually shifting the party’s position towards supporting a ceasefire in Gaza. His reluctance to change stance led to 10 frontbenchers quitting last November.
He also caused anger by saying in the aftermath of Hamas’s deadly October 7 attack that Israel had the right to cut off water and electricity to Gaza, remarks he later amended.
On Friday Labour lost control of Oldham council in England’s north-west after ceding seats to independent councillors who had run on a pro-Palestine ticket. The party had controlled the council for 13 years.
Pat McFadden, the party’s national election co-ordinator, conceded that Labour’s position on the Israeli offensive in Gaza had “been a factor in some places”, telling the BBC: “I don’t think there’s any point in denying it.”
But he added that the party had been “losing seats in Oldham for a few years”.
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Labour also appeared to lose support to the Greens in wards with large Muslim populations. Its vote share in those areas fell 16 per cent compared with 2021, whereas it made 5 per cent gains nationwide, according to a BBC analysis.
In Newcastle and Bolton, Labour lost council seats to Greens and independents. Labour’s council leader in Bolton, Nick Peel, said the Israel-Hamas war had been a clear factor in the party’s results.
“As a direct result of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine, many South Asian voters have not supported Labour or the Conservatives,” he said.
Peel added that though he had called for a ceasefire in Gaza, the public had expressed “real anger” over Labour’s stance on the Israeli offensive.
The results are a sign of the risk a clutch of Labour MPs — including shadow health secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford and shadow justice secretary Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham — could face in the general election.
Ali Milani, chair of the Labour Muslim Network, warned the Labour party’s leadership on Friday that its position on the conflict in Gaza “is going to have a serious electoral consequence”.
“If I was a Labour MP in Bradford, or Birmingham, or Leicester, or parts of London, or Manchester, I would be seriously concerned,” he told the BBC.
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Prior to the local elections more than 100 councillors had left the Labour party since October over the Gaza war.
Labour strategists believe there are about half a dozen seats in east London and northern England that could be vulnerable in the general election because of anger over Gaza.
Despite the losses in some areas, Labour made significant council gains from the Tories, including Rushmoor and Redditch near Birmingham. It also took control of both Thurrock and Hartlepool councils.
Asked if he was concerned about the impact of the Gaza conflict on Labour in some seats in Greater Manchester and Newcastle, Starmer avoided the question, telling the BBC he was “concerned wherever we lose votes”.
“There’s no denying that across the country, whether it’s Hartlepool in the north or Rushmoor in the south or Redditch, a bellwether seat, we are winning votes across the country,” he said.
