BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports rose 8.6% in June from a year earlier, and imports unexpectedly shrank 2.3%, customs data showed on Friday, suggesting manufacturers are front-loading orders in anticipation of tariffs from a growing number of trade partners.
A Reuters poll of economists had forecast exports would grow 8.0% by value and imports would rise 2.8%, compared with 7.6% and 1.8%, respectively, in the previous month.
Stronger-than-expected exports have been one of the few bright spots for an economy otherwise still struggling for momentum despite official efforts to stimulate domestic demand following the pandemic. A prolonged property slump and worries about jobs and wages are weighing heavily on consumer confidence.
Still, as the number of countries considering stepping up curbs on Chinese goods increases, so too does the pressure on its exports to prop up progress towards the government’s economic growth target for this year of around 5%.
China’s trade surplus grew to $99.05 billion, compared with a forecast of $85 billion and $82.62 billion in May. The United States has repeatedly highlighted the surplus as evidence of one-sided trade favouring the Chinese economy.
Washington in May hiked tariffs on an array of Chinese imports, including quadrupling duties on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%. Brussels last week confirmed it would impose tariffs on EVs as well, but only up to 37.6%.
Chinese exporters are also on edge heading into U.S. elections in November in case either major party tips fresh trade restrictions.
Turkey last month announced it would impose a 40% additional tariff on Chinese-made EVs, and Canada said it was considering curbs.
Meanwhile, Indonesia plans to impose import duties of up to 200% on textile products, which come mainly from China; India is monitoring cheap Chinese steel; and talks with Saudi Arabia over a free trade agreement have reportedly stalled over dumping concerns.
Analysts expect China to roll out more policy support measures in the short term, and a government pledge to boost fiscal stimulus is seen helping kick domestic consumption into a higher gear.
Economists and investors are awaiting for the Third Plenum to be held on July 15-18, with hundreds of China’s top Communist Party officials gathering in Beijing for a meeting that comes every five years.
