Climate change is a growing threat to UK farming » Yale Climate Connections

Farming has always been at the mercy of the weather, but climate change is amplifying that dependence dramatically. UK farmers are encountering unprecedented disruptions, from record rainfall and erratic seasons to more frequent droughts. These climate extremes are not only reshaping growing cycles – they also pose a serious threat to the country’s food security.

Recent weather events illustrate this transformation. The UK has been getting wetter over the last few decades, culminating in the wettest 18 months on record between October 2022 and March 2024, with 1,696mm of rain falling across England. This deluge flooded fields and waterlogged soils, severely harming crops: Vegetable yields dropped nearly 5% in 2023, whilst fruit production volumes fell by 12%. 

Extreme heat is also on the rise. During the July 2022 heat wave, temperatures hit a historic high of 40.3 °C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, for example, and led to widespread crop failures, particularly affecting salad leaves, peas, and legumes. 

These severe weather events are not isolated incidents but rather a new norm reshaping UK agriculture. Below, we’ll explore how these disruptions are impacting farming practices, their broader implications, and what steps can be taken to help farms adapt.

Weather whiplash: The new normal in UK agriculture

Extreme weather patterns are becoming a defining feature of UK agriculture, disrupting everything from vegetable farming to livestock production. The UK’s Food Security Report of 2021 identifies climate change as the biggest medium- to long-term risk for domestic food production.

Beyond temperature extremes, climate change affects crops and livestock by altering rainfall patterns, reducing water availability, and degrading soil quality. It also complicates food supply by increasing pest and disease exposure and affecting pollinator activity.

• Impacts from heavy rain and flooding. Heavy rains and flooding are wreaking havoc on farmlands across England, causing soil erosion, crop destruction, and delayed planting. The 2024 potato harvest, for instance, was hard hit by excessive rains, leading to widespread rot. Storm Babet in 2023 washed away fields, leaving less land for planting and less grazing land for animals. In Scotland, farmers struggled to rescue livestock from rising waters, highlighting the severe impacts on both crops and animals. In northern England, winter 2024’s extreme rains led to an especially difficult lambing season, with significant losses to hypothermia.

• Challenges from heat and drought. Heat waves and drought are putting new pressure on farmers, too. Prolonged dry spells have cracked soils, making it harder for crops to take root and increasing flash flood risks when rains return. Drought can also reduce grass growth, hurting livestock feed supply. For instance, during the 2022-2023 drought in Wales, feed costs soared to £265m.

  Extreme heat can also stress plants and animals, disrupting grazing schedules and feed availability. Dairy cows, in particular, suffer from heat and dehydration, affecting milk production. The July 2022 heat wave caused chicken yields to drop 9% from the previous year.

  Plus, as the UK warms, it becomes more hospitable to new pests, whilst beneficial species like pollinators face habitat loss, further challenging agricultural productivity.

• Erratic seasons. Unpredictable weather patterns add another layer of complexity. Traditional growing seasons are becoming unreliable, with sudden frosts and unseasonal heat waves disrupting crop cycles. For example, late spring frosts like the record-breaking cold snap in April 2021 can severely damage fruit tree blossoms and lead to smaller harvests. Longer warmer seasons, on the other hand, could increase risks from pests and parasites, leading to more occurrences of problems of liver fluke, helminth parasites, and other harmful species.
• Mental health impacts. Many farmers report increased stress, anxiety, and depression exacerbated by the uncertainty of their livelihoods. A recent survey found that 95% of UK farmers under 40 believe their mental health has been harmed by climate change, with many struggling with the constant threat of crop failures, rising costs, and market instability.

Beyond the farm: food security and public health risks

Climate change’s impacts on agriculture ripple through the economy, with implications for food security and public health. Dropping yields and rising production costs are pushing up food prices, intensifying the cost-of-living crisis. The price of everyday staples like potatoes, wheat, and vegetables is climbing, driven by shortages. England’s wheat harvest, for example, was projected to fall by nearly 20% in 2024, and fruit and vegetable prices are following a similar trajectory.

Moreover, the UK’s growing reliance on imports – over 47% of its food comes from abroad – adds vulnerability. Climate disruptions at home and abroad threaten the steady supply of fresh produce, potentially driving consumers toward cheaper, calorie-dense options and raising public health concerns.

Advancing farming with innovation and adaptation 

Climate change presents significant challenges, but it also opens doors for innovation. Warmer temperatures and extended growing seasons could temporarily boost yields for crops like wheat and introduce new fruit varieties. Warmer winters might even reduce livestock housing costs.

However, these benefits are short-lived. As global warming intensifies, extreme weather events – heat waves, floods, and droughts – will overshadow any temporary gains. Without significant adaptation, UK crop yields could drastically decline by midcentury. The Third Climate Change Risk Assessment warns that food production risks, currently rated as “medium,” will escalate to “high” by 2050 if action is not taken.

To secure the future of UK agriculture, farmers are adopting smart adaptation strategies that blend innovative techniques with practical solutions. Sustainable farming practices like cover cropping, rotational grazing, and rainwater harvesting are enhancing soil health and optimising water and fertiliser use, helping maintain yields under tough conditions. Farmers are also experimenting with climate-adapted crops like drought-tolerant barley and blight-resistant potatoes to defend against extreme weather and ensure long-term productivity.

The UK government is also playing a role. The Environmental Land Management scheme offers financial incentives for sustainable practices, like improving soil health and conserving water. Ongoing support through policy and infrastructure will drive the necessary advancements, empowering farmers to adapt and strengthen the resilience of the agricultural system.

Shaping a sustainable future for UK farming

Farmers are facing the brunt of climate change – yet agriculture also contributes directly to global CO2 emissions, a paradox that underscores the urgent need to embrace sustainable farming.

The reality is that to thrive amidst the growing impacts of climate change, agriculture must not only adapt but also actively contribute to the solution. By adopting innovative farming techniques and supportive policies, the UK can foster a more resilient food system today, and into the future.