Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney and national recruiting analyst Marshall Levenson along with Jason Suchomel of Orangebloods.com and Ryan Young of TrojanSports.com tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. In the next rankings release, Ohio State QB commit Tavien St. Clair should be No. 1 overall.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. If the rankings team decides to make St. Clair the top prospect nationally then there would certainly be a good argument because he’s been fantastic this offseason and he was excellent at the Elite 11. He has an NFL-ready body, he’s going to play in an elite offense that produces at every position and his demeanor and maturity is definitely what’s needed to be successful. But Julian Lewis has done nothing this offseason to move off that top spot. What I like about Lewis is that while he’s been No. 1 for a while, the USC commit still shows up to so many events to compete and that competitiveness level is special.
Levenson’s take: FICTION. Boy, this is tough. Anytime you are looking at a change of the No. 1 prospect in the country, you have to have a very good reason to do so. Julian Lewis has done nothing to negatively impact his case for the top spot, but St. Clair has 100 percent given his case. You also have to take into account Bryce Underwood, who has not competed in nearly as many events as Lewis or St. Clair, but we know possesses elite ability. Next week’s Rivals Five-Star will be another excellent evaluation opportunity so my decision may change a week from now, but I would stick with Lewis as of today.
I certainly believe St. Clair should rise but Lewis has done nothing to get knocked off. We saw the USC commit dominate the toughest aspect of Elite 11, the Pro Day, and he did it in mostly easy fashion, and he deserves recognition for that. As the year goes on though, St. Clair will be firmly on the heels of both Lewis and Underwood, looking to take over.
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2. Dakorien Moore is pretty close to a lock to Texas.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Do I think Moore ends up at Texas? Probably. Do I think it’s “pretty close to a lock”? No. After the five-star receiver backed off his pledge to LSU it looked like the Duncanville, Texas, could just flip to the Longhorns but after visits to Ohio State, Texas and now Oregon along with a stop back in Baton Rouge, it seems like Moore is looking at all options again. After the visit back to LSU, Moore’s mom raved about the coaching staff and their vision for Moore and it seems like the Tigers are back in this one. Moore has a ton of family in and around the Austin area, and Texas is definitely a major player. He probably signs there. But LSU and others are definitely ones to watch.
Suchomel’s take: FACT. I struggled with this one because there are conflicting feelings on Moore’s status depending on who you talk to, and he does still have an Oregon visit that could shake things up. That being said, everything about Moore to Texas just makes sense. He’d be close to family, he’d play in a receiver-friendly offense and he and his family have a great relationship with the UT staff. There was some Ohio State buzz coming out of that visit, LSU has been up and down and from what I’ve heard, Moore does genuinely like Oregon. But I just have a hard time seeing any of those programs beating out Texas and there are some people that feel the Longhorns hold a commanding lead, including recruits who spent time with him on his Texas official visit.
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3. Out-of-state prospects decommitting from USC ends with Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. It could be done after five-star Justus Terry and four-star Isaiah Gibson backed off their pledges in a somewhat predictable fashion but it would also not be shocking if there were other departures. Auburn and Colorado are coming hard after five-star quarterback Julian Lewis. Teams are also seriously looking to flip running back commits Harry Dalton and Daune Morris. With Dalton from Dinwiddie, Va., and Morris out of Murfreesboro (Tenn.) Oakland, there is definitely a real chance teams in the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast will be making major pushes. It’s a credit to USC that so many of its commits are wanted by others but there is also a risk there that more could leave.
Young’s take: FACT. It should be. Those two were always in a category of their own in terms of being the hardest commits to keep in the fold all the way to December. USC needed to create recruiting momentum early in the spring, especially with regard to defensive recruiting and the new staff on that side of the ball, so it pushed for early commitments, which are always a risk – especially with highly rated out-of-state kids who still have nine months to change their mind and a bunch of visits left to take. We’ve seen this so many times over the years. The early commitment is made in the moment, when the glow of the visit and talks with coaches and the thought of doing something a little different by going across the country is all fresh. The more time passes, the more those feelings are less fresh while there inevitably is something new and shiny that captures the attention and compels.
Georgia and Alabama, etc., could afford to wait that out and make their strongest push around official visits this month. So I always felt this scenario was possible. USC needed to garner that early recruiting momentum and did, as a slew of commits followed those big early dominoes, so it made sense at the time. The rest of the class, meanwhile, should be unaffected. The other top Southeast commits are Hylton Stubbs, who has already been back for his official visit and seems locked in with the Trojans still, and of course, Julian Lewis, whose decision isn’t based on geography at all but rather the situation he’d walk into and where he and his family believe he can be best developed for the next level. The Lincoln Riley factor is going to remain hard to beat in that regard for Lewis.
All that said, losing Terry and Gibson was a major blow that took USC’s class from top five to top 20. It’ll be hard to recover what could have been had they remained in the fold.
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