Essay by Eric Worrall
Taking “model output is data” to the next level…
AI reveals hidden climate extremes in Europe
ByAndrei Ionescu
Earth.com staff writer…
Traditionally, climate scientists have relied on statistical methods to interpret these datasets, but a recent breakthrough demonstrates the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to revolutionize this process.
Previously unrecorded climate extremes
A team led by Étienne Plésiat of the German Climate Computing Center in Hamburg, alongside colleagues from the UK and Spain, applied AI to reconstruct European climate extremes.
The research not only confirmed known climate trends but also revealed previously unrecorded extreme events.
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Using historical simulations from the CMIP6 archive (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), the team trained CRAI to reconstruct past climate data.
The experts validated their results using standard metrics such as root mean square error and Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient, which measure accuracy and association between variables.
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Read more: https://www.earth.com/news/ai-reveals-hidden-climate-extremes-in-europe/
The only thing which is real about using generative AI to try to fill in the gaps is the hallucinations.
What are AI hallucinations?
AI hallucination is a phenomenon wherein a large language model (LLM)—often a generative AI chatbot or computer vision tool—perceives patterns or objects that are nonexistent or imperceptible to human observers, creating outputs that are nonsensical or altogether inaccurate.
Read more: https://www.ibm.com/topics/ai-hallucinations
I am an AI enthusiast, I believe AI is contributing and will continue to contribute greatly to the advancement of mankind. But you have to rigorously test the output. Comparing the AI output to a flawed model to see if it fits in the band of plausibility is not what I call testing.
Climate scientists have been repeatedly criticised for treating their model output as data. Using a tool which is known for its tendency to produce false or misleading data, to generate climate “records” which cannot be properly checked in my opinion is an exercise in scientific fantasy – a complete waste of time and money.
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