Roger Caiazza
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) recently issued its Power Trends which is billed as their “annual analysis of factors influencing New York State’s power grid and wholesale electricity
Markets”. This post highlights the expectation that electricity supplies will “be adequate to meet expected summer demand under baseline conditions, but under more extreme summer weather scenarios, potential reliability concerns have been identified” relative to the heat wave for the Northeast and Midwest predicted for next week.
NYISO Power Trends
NYISO recently released their power assessment: Power Trends Resources is the landing page for documentation, Power Trends 2024 is the report itself and there is a Power Trends Fact Sheet. If you are interested in a review of key developments and emerging issues in a jurisdiction trying to implement a net-zero transition then I recommend you look at this documentation. For this post I will only highlight the Key Messages listed:
- Public policies continue to drive rapid change in the electric system in the state, impacting how electricity is produced, transmitted, and consumed.
- Electrification programs and economic development initiatives are driving projected demand higher. Generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Together, these forces are narrowing reliability margins across New York.
- The potential for delays in construction of new supply and transmission, higher than forecasted demand, and extreme weather are threatening reliability and resilience to the grid
- Electricity supplies are adequate to meet expected summer demand under normal conditions, but extreme weather and other factors pose reliability risks.
- The New York statewide grid is projected to become a winter-peaking system in the 2030s, primarily driven by electrification of space heating and transportation.
- On the coldest days, the availability of natural gas for power generation may be limited and significant interruptions to natural gas supply can disrupt reliable operations.
- NYISO’s interconnection processes continue to evolve to balance developer flexibility with the need to manage the process to more stringent timeframes. Efforts are underway to make this process more efficient while protecting grid reliability.
- To achieve the mandates of the CLCPA, new emission-free supply capable of providing the necessary reliability services are needed to replace the capabilities of today’s generation. Such new supply is not yet available on a commercial scale.
- The wholesale electricity markets administered by the NYISO exist as an important tool to attract necessary investments to facilitate the transition of the grid in the coming decades.
There is a lot of information in this report that probably could provide fodder for another article. Suffice to say the conclusion would be that I characterize it as using careful wordsmanship to suggest that there are issues that must be addressed but not coming out and saying the current energy direction of New York is bat guano crazy. What will it take to wake New York up?
For this post I only want to address the Summer 2024 Reliability Outlook. I have highlighted the particular concern for next week in the quotation of this section:
NYISO grid operations and planning teams collaborate with utilities, suppliers, and stakeholders to prepare for expected summer weather conditions. The NYISO forecasts conditions based upon normal, or baseline, expected weather conditions as well as extreme weather conditions. New York recorded a record peak of 33,956 megawatts (MW) in July 2013. For summer 2024, the NYISO expects electricity supplies to be adequate to meet expected summer demand under baseline conditions, but under more extreme summer weather scenarios, potential reliability concerns have been identified.
For summer 2024, the NYISO expects 34,913 MW of resources available to meet 31,541 MW of forecasted demand under normal conditions. Under extreme summer weather conditions, however, forecasted reliability margins could potentially be deficient without reliance on emergency operating procedures. For example, if the state experiences a heatwave with an average daily temperature of 95 degrees lasting three or more days, demand is forecasted to rise to 33,301 MW, while predicted supply levels are reduced to 34,502 MW. When accounting for the required 2,620 MW of operating reserves that must be maintained, this scenario results in a forecasted reliability margin of -1,419 MW. That reliability margin declines further to -3,093 MW under an extreme heatwave with an average daily temperature of 98 degrees. Under these more extreme summer weather conditions, the NYISO forecasts an available supply of 34,317 MW to meet the required 2,620 MW of operating reserve requirements, plus a forecasted demand of 34,790 MW.
To maintain reliability, NYISO operators can dispatch up to 3,275 MW of incremental capability through emergency operating procedures. These emergency operating procedures are not reflected in the forecasted reliability margins described above. To mitigate risks to reliability, NYISO operators conduct weekly outreach to suppliers to address risks to resource availability and coordinate with both generation and transmission owners to reduce the impacts of outages during hot weather periods. In addition, NYISO operators coordinate with neighboring regions to support regional grid reliability.
Forecast
New York has a very imbalanced load profile with New York City and downstate having the highest load. NYISO might weigh the temperature by population and load, and I am not sure how they calculate the statewide average temperature. For this projection I used the National Weather Service Extended Forecast (seven days) for Albany, Buffalo, New York City and Syracuse. Table 1 lists the high and low temperature forecasts for those cities. I calculated the average daily statewide temperature as the average of the high and low values for all four cities.
As shown in Table 1 the threshold of concern for an average daily temperature of 95 degrees does not appear likely. Nonetheless, the forecast discussions all mention that there is uncertainty with these forecasts so it will be worth watching to see what happens.
Discussion
The Power Trends figure that lists generation deactivations and additions demonstrates the inherent stupidity of New York’s current energy policy. Since 2019 the politicians have forced the premature shutdown of over 2,000 MW of nuclear generation just north of New York City. To respond to ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard non-attainment issues, the State was required to shutdown or add controls at old peaking power plants in New York City. Political pressure halted proposals to replace those units with modern much cleaner units that we know could provide sufficient reliability resources. .
The Power Trends report highlights risks coming to New York. The NYISO figure indicates that over 5,000 MW of dispatchable generation that provided the New York State with reliability services for decades has been shut down. In its place are wind and solar projects that check all the environmental goals of the State but may not provide power when needed most. Although the State is not completely dependent upon wind and solar yet, the state policies that have shut down and precluded development of conventional generating resources means that the toolbox of choices used to maintain reliability has lost options. The risks of blackouts are increasing so watch what happens during the first stress test of the year.
I will post an update on what happened next week.
Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.
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