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Hurricane Milton hits Florida hard, but spares Tampa a catastrophic storm surge » Yale Climate Connections

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In a stunning display of atmospheric violence, Hurricane Milton roared onto the coast of western Florida near Sarasota at 8:30 p.m. EDT Oct. 9 as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds and a central pressure of 954 mb. Milton brought a 1-in-500-year rainfall event to the Tampa Bay area, heavy wind damage along a swath spanning the entire state, a dramatic and deadly tornado outbreak, and a devastating storm surge whose magnitude is still unknown. But as bad as Milton was, Florida got a major break when the eye of the storm made landfall just 20 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay, sparing Florida’s most vulnerable city from a massive 10-foot storm surge that would have cost tens of billions of dollars.

Milton’s storm surge toll devastating, but still unclear

Milton’s track brought a storm surge in excess of five feet to Naples and Fort Myers — their second-highest water levels since records began in 1965. But the hurricane’s largest storm surge occurred along an 80-mile swath of coast from Siesta Key (offshore from Sarasota) down to Port Charlotte. There are no permanent tide gauges along that stretch of coast, but storm surge expert Jamie Rhome of the National Hurricane Center stated last night that he was “extremely confident” that a storm surge of 9-13 feet occurred in this region. Drone footage taken in Englewood, located 20 miles south of Sarasota, and in the barrier island just offshore, Manasota Key, would seem to support that (see Tweets below). We’ll know the magnitude of the surge in the coming days, once the data from the eight portable storm surge and wave sensors deployed by the U.S. Geological Survey between Naples and Crystal River becomes available.

For Fort Myers, here are the top eight water levels since 1965 (above mean higher high water, or MHHW). It’s crazy that three of these events have occurred this year:

1) 7.26 feet, September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian
2) 5.27 feet, October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton
3) 5.12 feet, September 27, 2024, Hurricane Helene
4) 3.41 feet, November 23, 1988, Tropical Storm Keith
5) 3.31 feet, September 14, 2001, Hurricane Gabrielle
6) 3.30 feet, June 18, 1982, Unnamed subtropical storm
7) 3.27 feet, August 4, 2024, Hurricane Debby
8) 3.2 feet, August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia

Note that there were multiple reports of inundations from 1960’s Hurricane Donna of eight to 12 feet in the Naples area and seven to 11 feet in the Fort Myers area.

For Naples, Florida, here are their top eight water levels since 1965 (above mean higher high water, or MHHW). Again, it’s crazy that three of these events have occurred this year:

1) 6.18 feet, September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian (gage failed before the highest level was recorded)
2) 5.08 feet, October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton
3) 4.02 feet, September 10, 2017, Hurricane Irma
4) 4.01 feet, September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene
5) 3.11 feet, August 4, 2024, Hurricane Debby
6) 3.11 feet, December 22, 1972, Winter storm
7) 3.08 feet, January 17, 2016, Winter storm
8) 3.02 feet, September 28, 2023, Hurricane Idalia

As noted by hurricane expert Michael Lowry in his Substack post today, “According to NOAA, the amount of coastal flooding in Fort Myers and Naples should happen on average about once every 30 to 60 years, but it’s happened now three times in a span of two years (Ian in 2022 and Helene and Milton this season) for these coastal areas, a brutal outcome of rising seas and a spate of strong hurricanes targeting Florida’s west coast.”

Widespread flooding from record rainfall

As Milton interacted with a stationary front across central Florida, intense rains developed just north of Milton’s track, especially across the Tampa Bay area northeastward. A total of 18.54 inches was reported at St. Petersburg Albert Whitted Airport, the heaviest calendar-day total in data going back to 1998. An astounding 5.09 inches of that total fell in just one hour, between 8 and 9 p.m. EDT, as Milton was making landfall and St. Petersburg was in the northern eyewall.

For Tampa, where records date back to 1890, Tampa International Airport measured 11.43 inches on Wednesday, just shy of Tampa’s all-time record for any calendar day of 11.45 inches on May 8, 1979. At Sarasota Bradenton International Airport, 11.06 inches made Wednesday the wettest calendar day in data going back to 1999.

Water still flowing into rivers from Milton’s torrential rains will produce major river flooding at numerous sites from west-central to northeast Florida from Thursday into the weekend. At least one site is predicted to hit a record crest: Cypress Creek at SR 54 Worthington Gardens, with 15 feet (record 13.78 feet on Sep. 11, 2004)

Tornadoes rake South and Central Florida

As Milton approached Florida on Wednesday, the southern half of the peninsula experienced an unusually intense round of hurricane-related tornadoes, causing far-flung damage and at least four deaths. Such twisters often develop in “mini-supercell” thunderstorms that emerge in clusters or lines, especially ahead of and to the right of a landfalling hurricane’s track (the right front quadrant), where tornado-favored wind shear tends to be maximized.

Wednesday’s tornadoes were unusually visible for a hurricane-related outbreak – perhaps because enough dry air was rotating around Milton’s south and east flanks to keep visibility high. The dry air several miles up also enhanced atmospheric instability once the air was lifted, thus lending support to the tornado outbreak.

The 126 tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service across Florida on Wednesday set a calendar-day state record for any day since 1986, spanning the Doppler-radar era. Since time is of the essence with tornadoes, many warnings are based on radar-based clues, such as intense small-scale rotation, that imply a tornado is imminent. As a result, there are typically fewer tornadoes observed than the sheer number of warnings from an outbreak might suggest.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has logged 38 preliminary tornado reports so far from Wednesday’s prolific Florida outbreak. The record-largest tornado outbreak in Florida caused by a hurricane was 24 twisters over a four-day period, Sep. 4-7, 2004, from the landfall of Cat 2 Hurricane Frances. Frances spawned a total of 103 tornadoes over a six-state area, making it the third-most prolific tornado-spawning hurricane on record, behind Cat 3 Hurricane Ivan on Sept. 15-18, 2004 (120 tornadoes, including 18 in Florida, with six deaths there) and Cat 3 Hurricane Beulah of 1967 (115 tornadoes over Texas).

One of the tornadoes from Frances was the strongest known tornado spawned by a hurricane: an F3 (equivalent to an EF3 in the enhanced Fujita scale) that affected areas near Camden, South Carolina, producing extensive damage. Given the significant damage apparent in photos and videos, it’s quite possible that one or more tornadoes from Wednesday will be officially ranked that high once damage surveys are carried out (note that real-time estimates derived from radar data or chaser video are not used for official Fujita rankings). Florida’s strong building codes in the wake of 1992’s catastrophic Hurricane Andrew likely kept structural damage lower than might have occurred with the same twisters in other states.

Kudos to NHC for a great forecast

The forecast for Milton’s landfall made four to five days beforehand was less than 20 miles (32 km) off, and never deviated much during the entire course of the storm. The landfall intensity forecast was similarly spot-on. These accurate forecasts gave Floridians plenty of time to prepare for the hurricane and make the preparations needed to protect lives and property. Great job, NHC! Special thanks also need to be given to the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters, who flew tirelessly around the clock, enduring extreme turbulence on multiple missions, in order to send back the information needed for NHC to make those great forecasts.

What’s next for the Atlantic after Milton?

The Atlantic will likely be mercifully quiet for at least a week after Milton, with no new storms developing. The NHC is monitoring just one tropical wave off the coast of Africa with 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 20%. This disturbance is not a threat to any land areas.

However, late next week we will have to start watching the Western Caribbean, where the GFS model has been predicting for multiple runs that a tropical storm could form. The general weather conditions for tropical storm formation will grow more favorable during the last week of October and first week of November (see Tweet below).

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