Hurricane Rafael pounds Cuba » Yale Climate Connections

Drawing on near-record Caribbean warmth for so late in the year, Hurricane Rafael was still gaining steam on Wednesday as it approached western Cuba. Rafael was predicted to make landfall by late afternoon on Cuba’s southwest coast as a major Category 3 hurricane, then head into the Gulf of Mexico for a prolonged period. Rafael’s Gulf track remains highly uncertain, though dramatic weakening is expected before any potential landfall in the U.S. early next week.

At 10 a.m. EST Wednesday, November 6, Rafael was located 130 miles (205 km) southeast of Havana, Cuba, headed northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h) with top sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) and a central pressure of 960 mb. In the 24 hours ending at 7 a.m. EST Wednesday, Rafael rapidly intensified by 45 mph (70 km/h), well above the minimum definition of rapid intensification of a 35 mph (55 km/h) increase in 24 hours.

Hurricane #Rafael continues to strengthen on approach to Cuba, now forecast to make landfall at Category 3 strength. You can see the tight eye on the Key West, Florida radar. pic.twitter.com/prQBK9nBNk

— Nick Stewart (@NStewWX) November 6, 2024

Cayman Islands radar and Cuban radar showed that Rafael was bringing heavy rains to much of southwestern Cuba. A double eyewall structure was apparent on radar, suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle could keep further strengthening modest. However, Rafael will likely reach Cat 3 strength (winds of at least 115 mph or 185 km/h) before coming ashore. Rafael will pass just east of Cuba’s Isle of Youth before making landfall on the sparsely populated southwest coast of Cuba, roughly 50 miles west-southwest of Havana.

Cayo Largo del Sur, a small Cuban island in the path of Rafael, recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 9:50 a.m. EST Wednesday, when the center of Rafael was passing about 30 miles (50 km) to the west.

Rafael’s impact on Cuba: a major threat to electric power

Rafael is expected to make landfall in Cuba at an inopportune time, as the island’s electrical grid is suffering continued instability after a nationwide blackout on October 18-21 caused by the failure of the Antonio Guiteras power plant, Cuba’s largest. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Rafael maintaining hurricane strength as it passes over western Cuba, with the center tracking roughly 50 miles west of the capital city of Havana (population 2.1 million). Tropical-storm-force winds extend more than 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Rafael’s center, and the forecast track would put the city in the dangerous right-front quadrant of the storm, resulting in substantial wind damage to its many dilapidated structures, along with many downed trees and power lines.

Cuba’s electrical infrastructure is so weak that the large number of power outages likely to occur in western Cuba may have an extended duration, and the nation’s entire grid may be at risk of collapse.  

Rafael the 4th landfalling Caribbean storm of 2024

Rafael will be the fourth named storm to make landfall on a Caribbean island in 2024. The others:

• Hurricane Beryl hit Carriacou, Grenada, on July 1 as a high-end Cat 4 hurricane, causing catastrophic damage and killing at least five people in the Lesser Antilles.
• Hurricane Ernesto passed through the Leeward Islands on Aug. 13-14 as a tropical storm with 45-65 mph winds, causing $150 million in damage, but no fatalities, according to Gallagher Re.
• Hurricane Oscar passed over Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas and hit northeastern Cuba on Oct. 20 as a Cat 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. At its peak, Oscar had hurricane-force winds extending only 5.75 mi (9.25 km) from the center, making it the smallest Atlantic hurricane on record. Oscar is being blamed for seven deaths in Cuba.

Hurricane #Rafael Advisory 12: 10:00 AM EST Wednesday November 6, 2024

Full forecast details at: https://t.co/TeLLMFmCkN pic.twitter.com/QGgG6rLvpc

— National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) November 6, 2024

Heavy rains on Wednesday for the Southeast U.S.

There is the potential for areas of heavy rain over the Southeast U.S. from a moist flow of air in advance of the Rafael, as the storm is embedded in an unusually large area of atmospheric moisture for early November. The National Weather Service has placed much of Georgia and southwestern South Carolina in its “Moderate Risk” area for excessive rain on Wednesday, and three to five inches of rain might fall there, with locally higher amounts.

A MODERATE risk is in effect in our Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: https://t.co/FQU5sbmsxo pic.twitter.com/5wfyoj2wiq

— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) November 6, 2024

Forecast for Rafael in the Gulf

After Rafael crosses Cuba, the prevailing steering flow will take it into the southeast Gulf of Mexico, then on a gradually westward-arcing path toward the south-central Gulf by Thursday. Beyond that point, there is considerable uncertainty on whether Rafael will continue west or even cut southwest toward the Mexican coast, versus angling north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. As high pressure builds in and near the western Gulf, weakening steering currents may allow Rafael to stall in the western Gulf around Sunday or Monday, as predicted in the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, and/or move erratically. Most members of the GFS model ensemble from early Wednesday, and a few European ensemble members, show Rafael eventually heading north toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast (see Fig. 1)

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico will be much less supportive for Rafael. Wind shear will increase into the 15-25 mph range, and very dry air will enter the circulation from the north and west over time, sapping Rafael’s shower and thunderstorm activity despite warm sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius (82°F). Rafael is predicted by NHC to exit Cuba as a hurricane but gradually weaken below hurricane strength by this weekend. If Rafael does take a more westward track into Mexico, it will likely experience less wind shear and could maintain more of its strength. None of the model ensembles suggest that Rafael will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane.

Another disturbance headed west toward the Bahamas

A tropical disturbance located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday was headed west at about 15 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers of 1-2 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. A few members of the 6Z Wednesday European model ensemble, along with most of the members of the GFS model ensemble, show development of this disturbance into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week. Sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm — more than adequate to support a tropical cyclone; however, wind shear and land interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will likely interfere with development.

In its Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. The next name of the Atlantic list of storms is Sara.