MLB Stretch Run Is All About Starting Pitching

That current lull in all but one MLB division-title chase is merely the long, slow inhale for an approaching windstorm of chaos that is set to start just as October arrives.

Five of the six MLB division leaders have at least a four-game lead heading into play Saturday, leaving the regular season down to a final three weeks that has lost some of its draw.

The American League East is the lone exception to division tranquility, with the Baltimore Orioles holding a slim half-game lead on the New York Yankees.

The Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and the Houston Astros in the AL West were up 4 1/2 games. In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies had an eight-game lead in the East, while the Milwaukee Brewers were up nine games in the Central. The Los Angeles Dodgers had a tenuous lead by comparison at four games in the West. 

Division chases are not exactly must-see theater right now, and perhaps that is only fitting. Recent playoff history tells us it is best to look elsewhere if drama of the sprint toward a championship is what we crave.

In 2023, it was a pair of wild-card teams that faced off in the World Series when the Arizona Diamondbacks met the eventual champion Texas Rangers. It was just the third time in history that two wild-card teams faced off for the title.

When the playoffs expanded to three wild-card teams in 2022, the probability of it happening only increased. The 12-team playoffs were created under a five-year collective bargaining agreement that is set to expire after the 2026 season.

During that first expanded season in 2022, the third NL wild card was the Philadelphia Phillies, and they turned opportunity into a World Series spot.

Wild-card teams have a greater sense of urgency, or so the theory goes. Since they have been chasing the team ahead of them in the division while having to hold off wild-card threats all around, their sense of urgency has been heightened. They have been in playoff mode longer.

Except this season paints something of a different perspective. The loser of the Orioles-Yankees division chase is all but assured to be a wild card. The other two wild-card hopefuls—the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals—aren’t as threatened by the wild-card pack behind them. 

In the National League, the NL West is expected to have two wild-card teams, with the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres currently holding spots. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are set to fight it out for the third spot.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the six-team AL playoff field is essentially set. Seven of the six teams look to be decided in the NL, although if the surging Chicago Cubs can track down the pack, they might have the momentum they need to make an October run. 

Giving into the theory that late-season momentum is a significant indicator of who has a strong chance to make it to the World Series, the AL East chase should be most critical. And not for who wins the division, but rather who does not.

It is not as if the Orioles or Yankees would prefer to be in a win-or-go-home three-game wild-card series, but the team in that spot would start the playoffs without delay—unlike the top two teams in each league that receive a bye.

In the play-everyday world of baseball, not having a significant interruption in playing time has its advantages. Winning a wild-card series provides a catapult that a division winner won’t have.

Sound preposterous? Sure. But that is exactly how it worked out last season. 

The Rangers roared past the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles to open the playoffs on a five-game winning streak to earn an ALCS spot. The Diamondbacks demolished the Dodgers in the NLDS after blowing past the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round while also winning their first five playoff games. The 2022 Phillies blazed the same trail. 

An NFL team might embrace a playoff bye with open arms, while an MLB team will accept it with some trepidation.

So watch these final three weeks of the regular season to see who has the most momentum… and also to see who has the healthiest pitching staff.