Narendra Modi eyes India ‘hat trick’ as world’s biggest, longest election ends

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Narendra Modi’s bid for a third term as India’s prime minister has been much harder-fought than expected, but the 73-year-old leader was in a buoyant mood this week as the world’s biggest and longest-running election drew to a close.

“This is the first time in decades a government with absolute majority is about to score a hat trick,” Modi told a final rally in Punjab state on Thursday, using a cricket term for a bowler taking three wickets in three balls to voice his certainty of winning a third term. 

Ahead of the vote, Modi predicted his Bharatiya Janata party and its National Democratic Alliance allies would win a commanding 400 seats in India’s 543-seat lower house. Such a victory would bolster his status as one of the world’s most powerful leaders.

But falling short of the 303 seats the BJP won in 2019, even if Modi goes on to become India’s first leader since Jawaharlal Nehru to serve three consecutive terms, would be a blow to his reputation and give sustenance to rivals in both the opposition and ruling camps.

Indians this week turned out in large numbers despite scorching heat to hear Modi and his opponents, led by Indian National Congress scion Rahul Gandhi, make their final pitches. The seventh and final phase of India’s staggered election, in which ballots are cast using electronic voting machines, takes place across eight states and territories on Saturday.

While most analysts predict a BJP victory, some have described this as a “waveless election”, with no party able to control the campaign narrative. In contrast with past overwhelming “Modi waves”, the prime minister’s rivals have this time been able to capitalise on resentments over rising joblessness and prices and on remarks Modi has made in recent interviews.

“There isn’t a Modi wave that was there in 2014 and 2019,” said Neerja Chowdhury, a political analyst and contributing editor with the Indian Express newspaper. 

“BJP voters will be voting for his leadership, the fact that he brought India to the global high table, and there will be support from beneficiaries of his welfare schemes,” she said. “But you also saw through the election an expression of dissatisfaction which had not been expressed in the last elections.” 

Ten years ago, Modi stormed to victory after a campaign fought on the slogan that “good days are coming” and helped by disgust with pervasive corruption under Congress-led governments. In 2019, an insurgent attack in the disputed region of Kashmir prompted an Indian air strike on Balakot in Pakistan that boosted the Modi government’s security credentials. The BJP went on to win its biggest-ever share of seats. 

Voter turnout has been lower this year, averaging 65.5 per cent in the first six phases, down from 67.4 per cent in 2019 and 66.4 per cent in 2014. Election officials have said extreme heat has deterred some voters. Opposition politicians have claimed — without hard evidence — that the popularity of India’s most powerful leader in decades has passed its peak.

A statutory ban on exit polls will lift on Saturday evening, giving the first indication of the likely outcome when final results are reported on June 4. 

Gandhi and other opposition politicians, grouped in the INDIA alliance, have complained about an uneven playing field because of the BJP’s deeper coffers and a government crackdown on opponents.

Arvind Kejriwal, leader of the Aam Aadmi party, was jailed on the eve of the election in connection with a corruption case. After being released on bail by India’s supreme court so he could campaign, he has vowed to “save the country from dictatorship”. 

During the long campaign, the prime minister, who normally only rarely grants interviews, gave dozens — in some cases offering opponents useful ammunition.

“Some might say I am a fool or I’m crazy, but I’m convinced that God has sent me for a purpose. If that purpose is fulfilled, he will help me accomplish my work as well,” Modi told the NDTV India news channel last week in remarks widely cited by his rivals.

Gandhi, who has hammered Modi over his past ties with billionaires Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani throughout the campaign, seized on the comment to claim: “God sent Modi to help Adani and not the poor.”

In an interview with news channel ABP this week, Modi claimed the world had not known about Indian independence hero Mahatma Gandhi until UK filmmaker Richard Attenborough’s 1982 biopic. The comments were widely derided by opponents, with Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh accusing Modi of “peddling lies”.

Modi has also made some of his most divisive remarks to date about Muslims, attacking them as “infiltrators” and claiming Congress would introduce mandatory affirmative action quotas for them if it won power.

“I think there’s some miscalculation by his media managers,” media critic Shailaja Bajpayee said of the prime minister.

“I cannot see why you would expose the prime minister so much,” she said, adding that some of Modi’s comments “surely could not be part of the strategy to appeal to people”.