[ROUNDTABLE] Strategies to avert Korea’s extinction

Experts, envoys say what drove nation’s economic miracle now threatens its very existence

By Jung Min-ho

A simple calculation highlights the severity of Korea’s demographic crisis. Last year, around 230,000 babies were born in the country. To sustain its current population, approximately 760,000 births are needed annually.

This means that even if the government were to admit an equal number of immigrants as the annual number of newborns in a desperate attempt to offset the shortfall, the overall population would still decline if current trends persist.

Experts and foreign diplomats at a roundtable hosted by The Korea Times on Aug. 29 described Korea’s demographic crisis as an existential threat to the nation, potentially more urgent than climate change. They argued that Korea’s economic success over the past 70 years, driven by an intense focus on work at the expense of other aspects of life, has contributed significantly to this crisis. While they believe that changing this trajectory is feasible, they emphasized that it requires a courageous shift in societal attitudes and policies.

“The low birthrate in Korea, as the government said, is a national crisis. I think that is very true. What is happening is a slow-motion catastrophe,” Dutch Ambassador to Korea Peter van der Vliet said. “The population pyramid is turned upside down. There will be fewer and fewer working-age people that can support the growing number of the elderly people. That creates a tremendous pressure on society, economy, labor market, pension system, public finances, public services such as social welfare.”

In 2023, Korea’s fertility rate — representing the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — fell to a historic low of 0.72. Current data indicates that this rate, already the lowest globally, is projected to decline further, potentially dropping below 0.7.

To reverse the trend, the government has injected more than 360 trillion won ($283 billion) into relevant policies since 2006, only to no avail.

Yi In-sill, president of the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, a think tank, said that’s largely because there is a larger, more fundamental problem that remains in place ― the Korean culture of “workism” which is sustained by work-centered social norms and laws accumulated for decades.

“When it comes to policies, Korea is not falling behind, compared to other member states of the OECD,” she said. “But after the Korean War (1950-53), most national laws and policies have been introduced chiefly to promote economic development … All this, of course, has helped bring prosperity. But now, in a new era, Korea faces a choice between staying on this unsustainable path and striking out a new one. I don’t think there’s the right answer for this question. But we as a country should decide which way to go.”

She said this complex issue would require a comprehensive and multidimensional approach, including efforts to change the widespread perception that puts career above family life.

For instance, if a worker wants to take maternity leave after child birth, she must submit an application form. In a society that values family life over work, the process should be reversed: Everyone should automatically receive several months off to spend with their babies, and those who wish to continue working should be required to apply for an exception.

Participants of the roundtable argued that promoting a family-centered perspective — where work schedules and styles adapt to family life rather than the other way around — is crucial for addressing Korea’s declining birthrate. They suggested that legislation and other measures should reinforce this approach. Additionally, they recommended that Korean policymakers consider flexible working arrangements, a strategy that has successfully addressed similar issues in other countries.

“A poll conducted in April shows the ideal number of children young people wish to have is 1.8, which shows a discrepancy between their hope and reality,” said Kim Sang-hee, director of the child policy division of the Ministry of Health and Welfare. “By and large, they ask for policies that would help them keep both work and family life.”

All participants of the roundtable discussion agreed that fostering an environment supportive of working women — who represent a significant portion of the workforce in 21st-century Korea — should be a central focus of national efforts to prevent the country’s demographic decline.

They said, all women in Korea are naturally expected to do most of the housework and become the primary caretaker of children regardless of their education levels and whether they wish to continue to pursue their career ambitions. A healthy society should not require individuals to sacrifice one aspect of their lives for the other, emphasized Johannes Andreasson, deputy head of mission at the Embassy of Sweden in Seoul.

“In Sweden, women can choose to have children or they can choose work. They do not have to select one of them,” Andreasson said. “In Korea, many women graduate from universities. If they get married, they (are pressured to) take care of children, it’s economic waste. It’s a waste of human potential.”

Dutch Ambassador to Korea Peter van der Vliet, left, listens to an interpreter during a roundtable discussion hosted by The Korea Times in central Seoul, Aug. 29. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

‘Prepare for smaller, more diverse population’

Regardless of the government’s efforts and the success of its policies, Korea is likely to face an inevitable future: its population will become smaller and more diverse, with a growing proportion of immigrants over the coming decades.

By allowing more foreigners to work here for longer periods, policymakers have already introduced many plans to offset labor shortages caused by Korea’s demographic cliff.

The roundtable participants said Korea’s immigration policy over the next few years could be one of the most consequential and contentious political decisions for its future, as shown by the cases in many other countries, adding that it should be sustainable and responsible

In the Netherlands, a state committee for its population policies has concluded that shaping moderate population growth until 2050 is vital for the well-being of its people and economy, said the Dutch ambassador.

“The fertility rate in the Netherlands is around 1.5, well below the replacement rate of 2.1,” he said. “The only reason our population is still growing is because of immigration. This is a politically sensitive issue, which can pose challenges for our social cohesion and society. But immigration, whether you like it or not, is part of how to tackle this demographic puzzle. So it should also be part of the discussion (in Korea).”