The Week That Was: 2024 08-10 (August 10, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “IPCC is one of the worst sources of scientific misinformation.” — John Clauser, Nobel laurate in Physics (2022) [H/t Willie Soon]
Number of the Week: 0.75°C, 1.35°F
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will focus on two recent presentations and one website post. First will be the presentation by Professor William Happer at the EIKE Climate and Energy Conference. Second is a post by Roy Spencer, a pioneer in the measurement of atmospheric temperatures by satellites. Finally, comes a discussion of the presentation by solar scientist Willie Soon at the 5th CLINTEL Conference.
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Radiation Transfer, Update: Professor William Happer sent TWTW the notes he prepared for the International EIKE Climate and Energy Conference in Vienna on June 15, 2024. With slight corrections for typos, they have been posted on the SEPP website under Scientific Papers, 2024. The title of the talk was “Radiation Transport in Clouds” which is part of that which he and his colleague Willim van Wijngaarden are involved with in addressing the problem of clouds in predicting weather and climate.
Although many climate modelers have admitted the problem of clouds, there is little new work being done by them. As Nobel Laureate John Clauser pointed out, clouds have a significant cooling effect, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) largely ignores. Admitting that clouds are a problem is not the same as trying to articulate the extent of the problem. The work by Happer and van Wijngaarden involves formulations such as integro-differential equations which are beyond the scope of TWTW. (An example is on page 12 of the post.)
Instead, TWTW will focus on the earlier part of the notes which provides a summary of what has been demonstrated in the past. The discussion below and calculations are based on clear sky, without clouds, which significantly reduces sunlight hitting Earth. Below are Happer’s comments with boldface added, but viewgraphs not shown here but are on the SEPP website. An interested reader is urged to view the full post in PowerPoint at https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sepp.org%2Fscience_papers%2FHapper_Talk.pptx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
“Let me begin by thanking the conference organizers for inviting me to the storied city of Vienna, the home of Stefan, Boltzmann, Doppler, Mach and many other heroes of international physics.
I am going to sketch some details of how radiative heat transfer works in Earth’s clouds. Hendrick Svensmark, Nir Shaviv, John Clauser and others have already discussed how important clouds are, compared to greenhouse gases.
But let me make one thing clear at the outset. There is no climate crisis and there will not be a climate crisis from the increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The forcings are too small, about a 1% decrease of radiation to space for a 100% increase (doubling) of CO2 concentrations. The resulting warming will be very small and will probably be a net benefit to life on Earth. And agriculture, forestry and all photosynthetic life will greatly benefit from more of the plant food, CO2.
No doubt some proponents of the myth of a climate crisis are sincere, if misguided. However, many others support the myth out of a lust for power and wealth. Alas, this has happened all too often in human history. Emmanuel Kant got it right; ‘Aus so krummen Holtze, als woraus der Mensch gemacht ist, kann nichts ganz Gerades gezimmert werden.’ Isaiah Berlin’s English translation is: ‘Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.’
Some of the earliest quantitative work on radiative transfer and clouds was done by the Scottish physicist, John Leslie. He was the first to make quantitative measurements of downwelling radiation from the daytime and nighttime sky, that is, of the ‘sky temperature.’ To do this he used a sensitive differential thermometer, which he called an ‘aethrioscope.’ It consisted of two spherical glass bulbs, connected by a capillary tube containing a short column of alcohol (liquor) in the midsection. The lower bulb was shielded from radiation and was held at room temperature. The upper bulb was at the focus of a parabolic reflector, a polished metal cup, which let downward radiation focus on the bulb and heat it. Vice versa, thermal radiation emitted from the bulb was projected into the sky above. The cup played much the same role as the dish antenna of a modern radar. The colder the apparent sky temperature, the higher the column of liquor would be forced upward toward the absorbing-emitting bulb.
Working with the aethrioscope around the year 1800 Leslie noticed the substantial increases and decreases of downwelling radiation as clouds passed over head, and as described by his words on the viewgraph.” [Viewgraph is not presented here.]
Happer presents two graphs for Spectral Probability: one for Short Wave radiation (Sunlight) which can be measured with an instrument called a Pyranometer; and the second for Long Wave radiation emitted by Earth to space which Happer calls Earthglow. This can be measured with an instrument called a Pyrgeometer. Happer writes:
“Even in the year 1800, Leslie was well aware that there were two kinds of radiation in the atmosphere, sunlight which you could see, and thermal radiation generated in the atmosphere, which I will call earthglow, which you could not see but could feel as radiant heat if it were strong enough.”
Happer brings up the formulas for each type of radiation then states:
“There is very little overlap between the two probability densities, which are equal at a wavelength of about l= 4.2 mu [micrometers or microns], which can serve as convenient boundary between “short wave” radiation or sunlight, and “long wave” thermal radiation or earthglow emitted by Earth’s surface and atmosphere.
The probability curves assume thermal radiation at a temperature of Ts = 5772 K for sunlight and Te = 288.7 K for earthglow.”
Happer then gives details of both types of instruments to measure sunlight and earthglow. The important point is that there is little overlap, so the data from each type of instrument is quite unique. He states:
“For our discussions, the main point is to show that an ideal pyranometer is insensitive to the long wave thermal radiation from greenhouse gases and clouds, radiation that continues to downwell, day and night. The pyranometer shows no signal at all during the night when there is no solar radiation. Moonlight and starlight are more than one hundred thousand times weaker than sunlight and can be neglected. The viewgraph also shows the dramatic difference of downwelling solar radiation for a clear day on the left, and for a cloudy day on the right. [Not included here] During occasional cloud breaks when the sun can reach the ground directly, the downwelling solar radiation spikes upward. When clouds return to shadow the sun, the downwelling radiation comes from diffuse sunlight that has had multiple scattering on cloud particulates before reaching the pyranometer. Much of the radiation is reflected back to space and does not heat the ground or the atmosphere.
But Mother Nature is subtle. Paradoxically, skies with lots of clouds can increase the solar flux on some ground patches while decreasing it on others. The highly reflecting water droplets of the cloud edges forward-scatter sunlight and add to the direct irradiance from the sun.
The solar flux on a partly cloudy day is shown as the jagged blue curve on the viewgraph. [Not shown here] The same viewgraph shows the pyranometer output on a clear day. The drifting clouds can not only decrease the solar flux on the ground, compared to that on a clear day, but they can increase it by many tens of per cent.
On average, scattered clouds decrease solar flux on Earth’s surface, but for time intervals of a few minutes, they can increase the flux substantially, compared to a clear day.”
Happer discusses the pyrgeometer which measures how cold (or warm) the sky is. He gives a viewgraph from Thule, Greenland, which illustrates that on a cloudy day the sky can be warmer than it is on a clear day. He states [viewgraph not shown here]:
“This viewgraph shows a two-week recording of downwelling thermal radiation measured with a pyrgeometer at Thule, Greenland in July. There is very little variation of downwelling radiation from day to night. But there is a large difference between clear and cloudy weather, with close to 340 Wm-2 downwelling from cloud bottoms on overcast days and around 260 Wm-2 in clear weather, where the downwelling comes from thermal emission of water vapor, H2O, and CO2. The cloud bottoms produce the same flux as a blackbody with a temperature of about 5 C. The clear sky produces the same flux as a blackbody with a temperature of about -13 C.
Note the suppressed zero on the vertical scale! The downwelling from cloudy skies is only about 30% greater than that from clear skies.”
Happer then shows earthglow as measured from space. He states:
“The previous viewgraphs show downwelling radiation onto Earth’s surface. But upwelling radiation to space is qualitatively similar. Shown here are longwave infrared and visible images of the Earth, recorded at the same time by a geosynchronous satellite parked in the equatorial plane above Ecuador.
The right side of the figure shows blue sunlight, at wavelength of 0.47 micrometers diffusely reflected in the late afternoon when the time was 6:12 pm in Princeton, NJ. Night has already descended on Europe and the eastern Atlantic, so the right side of the image appears black.
The left side of the figure shows that Earth “glows in the dark,” at a wavelength of 10.3 micrometers, in the “infrared window,” where there is little absorption by greenhouse gases in cloud-free skies. So much heat is stored up from the previous day that the nighttime side of the globe on the right is just as bright with longwave radiation as the daytime side on the left. Like the pyrgeometer measurements of downward earthglow in the previous viewgraph, the earthglow seen from space has nearly the same intensity day or night.”
If one records the long wave thermal infrared radiation that reaches the satellite from a cloud-free area of the Earth, spectra like those on the right column of this figure are found. On the left are theoretically modelled spectra. One can hardly tell the difference between the modeled and observed spectra.
Note the strong dependence of the spectra on latitude. The vertical scales on the figures are different. The wintertime Antarctic, shown in the bottom row, emits much less radiation to space than the summertime Sahara shown in the top row. The modeled spectra on the left also include a dashed red Plank intensity spectrum, the radiation that a black surface at the same temperature as the real surface would emit to space if there were no greenhouse gases.
Over the Sahara and the Mediterranean, the greenhouse gases H2O, CO2, and O3, ozone, diminish the radiation reaching the satellite compared to Planck radiation from the surface. Over Antarctica, these greenhouse gases increase the radiation to space, compared to an atmosphere with no greenhouse gases.
The next viewgraph has a little more information about the Schwarzschild equation that was used for the model calculations.” [Again, the viewgraph refers to cloud-free skies. Otherwise, the outgoing IR would be about 240 W/m2, not 277]
The Schwarzschild equation has been discussed in previous TWTWs. The close fit between the Schwarzschild equation and the observations at three different latitudes demonstrates its power in predicting the outgoing radiation to space with different atmospheric thicknesses and levels of water vapor, CO2, and ozone – the Sahara, Mediterranean, and Antarctica.
“Quantitative analyses of greenhouse warming were made possible by Max Planck’s discovery of quantum physics in the year 1906. Planck’s famous blackbody spectrum is shown as the blue line in the viewgraph above. The area under the blue curve is how much heat radiation would be emitted to space from each square meter of Earth’s surface, at a mean temperature of 15.5 C.
Because of greenhouse gases, the heat radiated by Earth to space is not 394 watts per square meter, the area under the Planck’s smooth, blue curve. Instead, the power radiated is only 277 watts per square meter, the area under the jagged black curve. This is just enough to balance solar heating, any heat transport in horizontal directions and any increase or decrease of the internal energy of the atmosphere and surface.
It is appropriate to call the black curve the Schwarzschild intensity, in honor of Karl Schwarzschild, whose photo is shown on the lower right of the figure. The basic equation of radiative heat transfer in cloud-free atmospheres with greenhouse gases is called the Schwarzschild equation, since Schwarzschild showed how to include greenhouse gases into the theory of radiation transfer. He was interested in energy transfer in the Sun and stars, not Earth’s atmosphere, but the same theory works for both. The Schwarzschild equation is shown at the top of the viewgraph.
Schwarzschild’s theory shows that heat radiation to space from a semi-transparent atmosphere can come mostly from the surface, for frequencies that are weakly absorbed by greenhouse gases. But for frequencies that are heavily absorbed, most of the heat radiation to space is emitted by greenhouse molecules from altitudes of several kilometers. It is not attenuated thermal radiation emitted by Earth’s surface.
In addition to the blue Planck curve for a transparent atmosphere and the black Schwarzschild curve for an atmosphere with current concentrations of greenhouse gases, there is a green curve, which shows what happens if you could suddenly remove all of the CO2 from the atmosphere. Removing all the carbon dioxide would increase the radiation to space substantially, by about 30 watts per square meter, the area between the green and black curve on the top panel.
Finally, there is a red curve which is the radiation emitted to space if you double the CO2 concentration. For most frequencies, the red and black curves are identical. But in the middle of the absorption bands, you can see that the red and black curves differ slightly. The difference is hardly noticeable and amounts to a decrease of radiation to space of about 3.0 watts per square meter or 1% for doubling CO2 concentrations from 400 ppm to 800 ppm. Any doubling of CO2, a 100% increase, reduces radiation to space by the same 3.0 watts per square meter.
Having reviewed some of the physical facts about how clouds affect radiation transfer, and how well solutions of the Schwarzschild equation describe cloud-free conditions, we turn to the modeling of radiation transfer in cloudy skies.”
Except for the conclusion, TWTW discussion stops here, but the rest of the post can be viewed on the SEPP website. The takeaway messages of Happer are:
“Clouds and water vapor are much more important than greenhouse gases for Earth’s climate.
Doubling CO2 concentration, a 100% increase, only decreases radiation to space by 1%. Covering half the sky with clouds decrease solar heating by 50%.
Clouds can be quantitatively modeled with 2n-Stream Radiative Transfer Theory.”
The Schwarzschild equation is not considered in the conclusions by the IPCC or its collaborators in their calculations of increasing greenhouse effect by CO2, especially the EPA in its finding that carbon dioxide is a pollutant. Using the Planck curve of blackbody radiation, Happer and van Wijngaarden found that at a mean temperature of 15.5°C (59.9°F) the theoretical radiation from the surface of Earth is 394 Watts per square meter.
Reducing the outgoing radiation by the Schwarzschild equation for water vapor and other greenhouse gases but not including carbon dioxide, results in outgoing radiation of 307 Watts per square meter. Calculating CO2 at 400 ppmv (parts per million volume), reduces outgoing radiation to 277 Watts per square meter. Doubling the CO2 to 800 ppmv reduces outgoing radiation to 274 Watts per square meter. [Again, these are for cloud-free skies.]
Thus, in today’s atmosphere all greenhouse gases account for a reduction of outgoing radiation of 117 Watts per square meter, of that CO2 accounts for about 25.6% of the total greenhouse gas influence on temperature and the remaining gases especially water vapor account for 74.4%. Water vapor covers virtually the entire spectrum of greenhouse gas influence, rendering the other gases insignificant until water vapor mostly drops out of the atmosphere by the tropopause — approximately 20,000 feet (6 km) at the poles and approximately 60,000 feet (18 km) at the equator.
[A side note: Actually, H2O is diminishing all the way up to the tropopause. There is a “crossover” with CO2 concentration (about 400 ppm) in the vicinity of approximately 7 km. Meanwhile CO2 does not diminish with altitude. For the entire thickness of the atmosphere, indeed it’s 3/4 H2O and 1/4 CO2; but above that crossover point, the role of CO2 becomes greater. From the stratosphere, nearly all the radiation comes from CO2, above that ozone takes over. In the stratosphere, H2O levels off to about 4 ppm, comparable to CH4. That’s because CH4 oxidizes to CO2 + 2 H2O.]
Doubling carbon dioxide to 800 ppmv will only reduce the outgoing radiation by 3 watts per square meter to 274 watts per square meter or 1%. This is hardly justification for destroying civilization by disrupting reliable electricity and effective transportation at great costs and no benefits. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy or https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sepp.org%2Fscience_papers%2FHapper_Talk.pptx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK [the link may not work with Google Chrome but with another browser] and for one of the previous discussions on the work of Schwarzschild see https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2020/TWTW%208-29-20.pdf
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Addressing the Greenhouse Effect: On his website, Roy Spencer has a post “Yes, the Greenhouse Effect Is Like a Real Greenhouse (and other odds and ends).” He writes [Boldface added]:
“Yes, the Greenhouse Effect is like a Real Greenhouse [Spencer’s boldface]
Most objections to using the greenhouse analogy are that the atmosphere does not have a “roof” preventing convective heat loss like a greenhouse does. But those who claim this don’t realize that the greenhouse effect (GHE) is defined with no convective heat transport. The GHE is like a real greenhouse with a perfect roof. The original paper on this is Manabe & Strickler (1964), where they calculated the average surface temperature in pure radiative equilibrium (the surface and each atmospheric layer achieving a temperature where rates of absorbed and emitted radiation are equal– no convection) was about 70 deg. C warmer than what is actually observed. The weaker ‘33 deg. C’ effect you often see attributed to the GHE is actually the sum of [GHE warming + convective cooling]. It is NOT the extra warming from the GHE alone. So, yes, Virginia, Earth’s greenhouse effect is like a real greenhouse (even more so, because its “roof” is perfect, whereas a real greenhouse roof does lose some heat through conduction of heat through the roof and then convective air currents cooling the roof).
No, the Saturation Effect of Increasing CO2 on Global Temperatures is Not Being Ignored in Global Warming Projections. [Spencer’s Boldface]
As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, the effect it has on the loss of IR energy to outer space becomes progressively less, producing a saturation effect. But this is true in all climate models as well, including the ones that produce unrealistic (5 deg. C or more) of warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Thus, invoking the ‘saturation effect’ as a magical talisman to refute CO2-induced warming will not work.
In fact, it is not possible for a planetary atmosphere to become totally opaque to IR radiation, because it would have to be fully, 100% saturated across all pressure-broadening affected wavelengths and through the entire depth of the atmosphere. Even Venus, with ~200,000 times as much CO2 as Earth’s atmosphere, is not “saturated” regarding the absorption of IR radiation.
The saturation talking point seems to have ramped up since publication of the recent theoretical line-by-line computations by my friend Will Happer & his co-author last year. But their calculations result in the same amount of radiative forcing from 2XCO2 as others have computed, and (again) are already included in even the most strongly warming climate models out there. Happer’s calculations might be the most complete and accurate to date (I don’t know), but their results do not change what is already in climate models in any significant way.”
This is fine as far as it goes. However, the issue is the warming influence of water vapor in the troposphere not that of CO2. The modelers, such as Tim Palmer a pioneer on climate model ensemble, claim that water vapor doubles CO2 warming. But using modern measurements including some 50 years of measurements by instruments on weather balloons in the HITRAN high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database, Happer and van Wijngaarden show that tropospheric water vapor is not sufficient to double CO2 warming. In the atmosphere over the tropics water vapor is virtually saturated. Further, when Happer and van Wijngaarden use the term saturated regarding the greenhouse effect, they mean the effectiveness of increasing amounts of a greenhouse gas is declining, not that there is no effect. The law of diminishing returns has set in.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer, Challenging the Orthodoxy, and https://hitran.org/ for the HITRAN Database.
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Detection and Attribution: Willie Soon gave an effective presentation at the CLINTEL 5th anniversary conference titled “Scientific challenges of the ‘Detection and attribution of global warming.’” Much of the subject matter was covered in the July. 13 issue of TWTW on his presentation at the DDP Meeting. But it is useful to repeat a few key issues. The presentation covers:
“1. The UN panel’s approach to ‘the detection and attribution of global warming’
2. Problems in the UN’s ‘detection’ approach:
• Underestimating the extent of the urban heat island problem
• Problems with current ‘temperature homogenization’ approach
3. Our rural-only Northern Hemisphere land temperature record
4. Other non-urbanized temperature series (oceans, tree-rings, glaciers)
5. Problems with the UN’s ‘attribution’ approach:
• UN’s ‘radiative forcings’ underestimate the role of natural climate change
6. Trying to better answer how solar activity has changed since 1850
• Different aspects of solar activity
• Changes in solar activity during satellite era
• Using solar proxies to reconstruct solar activity in the past
7. 27 different estimates of solar activity changes since 1850
8. Our latest detection and attribution results
9. How well can we measure Earth’s Energy Budget?
10.Conclusions”
The most iconic statement in the IPCC reports is:
“The observed global warming since at least 1950s is mostly human-caused and also unprecedented.” [Boldface in original]
Soon discusses why that statement is not justified and discusses great holes in the science presented by the IPCC. His conclusions are:
- “The IPCC insists that urbanization bias is less than 10% of the warming and therefore doesn’t need to be accounted for – They are wrong on impacts of UHI! [Urban Heat Island.]
- The IPCC insist that they have already resolved the best solar activity (‘TSI’) [Total Solar Irradiance] records, for their latest 6th Assessment Report (2021), they only considered one estimate. But we have found 27. They are wrong on TSI too!
- When we consider the non-urbanized temperature data, we can explain almost all the observed warming and cooling periods since 1850 in terms of changes in the Sun: whether looking at rural temperatures, ocean temperatures or temperature proxies (tree-rings and glaciers).
- The scientific community is not yet able to establish if the global warming since 1850 is: a) ‘mostly natural’, b) ‘both natural and human-caused’ or c) ‘mostly human-caused’.
- The measurements of the Earth’s Energy Budget, on a global scale, are highly uncertain and mostly unresolved because the total global energy budget is not accounted for up to 6.5 W/m2 at the TOA [Top of Atmosphere] and up to 17 W/m2 at the surface.”
Soon includes a great quote from the late Freeman Dyson in the forward of a Global Warming Policy Foundation report “Carbon Dioxide: The Good News” by Indur Goklany (2015) [Emphasis in the slide]
“The people who are supposed to be the experts and who claim to understand the science are precisely the people who are blind to the evidence…I hope that a few of them will make the effort to examine the evidence in detail and see how it contradicts the prevailing dogma, but I know that the majority will remain blind. That to me is the central mystery of climate science. It is not a scientific mystery but a human mystery. How does it happen that the whole generation of scientific experts is blind to obvious facts?”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and for the July 13 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2024/TWTW%207-13-2024.pdf
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Number of the Week: 0.75°C, 1.35°F In his talk, Happer estimated that the total influence of a doubling of CO2 on temperatures will be only 0.75°C, 1.35°F (maybe less). It will warm that much in 30 minutes on a sunny spring morning in Northern Virginia, across the river from Washington.
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Sunspot Counts Hit a 23-Year High
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 3, 2024
Censorship
Elon Musk, X Lawsuit Alleges Advertising Association ‘Conspiracy’ Violated Federal Antitrust Law
The Texas technology mogul alleged a global media association conspired to create an illegal boycott of X, violating federal antitrust laws.
By Matt Stringer, The Texan, Aug 6, 2024
https://thetexan.news/judicial/elon-musk-x-lawsuit-alleges-advertising-association-conspiracy-violated-federal-antitrust-law/article_bfd21f5e-5437-11ef-bd84-93c36c0f4d9e.html
Press Release: Statement on Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM)
By World Federation of Advertisers, Aug 9, 2024
https://wfanet.org/leadership/garm/about-garm
Press Release: Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM)
World Economic Forum, No date
https://www.weforum.org/projects/global-alliance-for-responsible-media-garm
From World Federation of Advertisers press release: Today we announce that GARM will discontinue its activities.
The Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM) was a voluntary cross-industry initiative created in 2019 to address digital safety.
From World Economic Forum press release: With nearly 3.8 billion people online, the world is increasingly connected, and yet the increase in dangerous, hateful, disruptive and fake content online risks threatening our global community.
The project focuses on addressing the following challenges:
Disinformation [is one]
[SEPP Comment: The World Economic Forum is a major source of disinformation and desires to impose censorship. Will it take a hint and shut down?]
Virgin Atlantic’s first transatlantic sustainable aviation fuel ad banned
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 7, 2024
From article: “Future Virgin Atlantic ads referencing SAF must include information explaining the environmental impact of the fuel, the ASA added.” [Advertising Standards Agency (ASA)]
[SEPP Comment: Will promoters of wind and solar power and EVs be held to the same standard?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 202o
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Profess or Physics, Emeritus, Princeton, Notes for the International EIKE Climate and Energy Conference, June 15, 2024
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sepp.org%2Fscience_papers%2FHapper_Talk.pptx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
PowerPoint, also posted on the SEPP website
Yes, the Greenhouse Effect Is Like a Real Greenhouse (and other odds and ends)
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 9, 2024
Most objections to using the greenhouse analogy is that the atmosphere does not have a “roof” preventing convective heat loss like a greenhouse does. But those who claim this don’t realize that the greenhouse effect (GHE) is defined with no convective heat transport. The GHE is like a real greenhouse with a perfect roof.
Dr. Willie Soon’s keynote presentation for the CLINTEL 5th anniversary (2024)
Video Via CERES-Science, June 18, 2024
https://www.ceres-science.com/post/clintel-5th-anniversary-2024
Link to Slides: Scientific challenges of the “detection and attribution of global warming
By Michael Connolly, Ronan Connolly and Willie Soon, Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES), June 18, 2024
All-blackout
By Bryan Leyland, Net Zero Watch, Aug 9, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/new-zealand-faces-rolling-blackouts
New Zealand has major problems with its power supply. There are three underlying reasons: the weather, a flawed electricity market and a drive for ‘net zero’.
Sixty-five percent of New Zealand’s electricity is provided by hydropower, and the remainder by geothermal, gas, coal, wind and some solar. In a dry year, hydro’s ability to deliver falls away, and we lose about 10% of our generation. In the past, we always tried to have the reservoirs full by the end of summer to guard against this possibility. But, when we switched to an electricity market, this was forgotten.
Whatever happens, New Zealand faces a very uncertain future with its power supply. I strongly suspect it will be just the first of many countries to run into this kind of trouble.
[SEPP Comment: Leyland’s analysis brings out a serious problem. Often objectives are confused. If the objective is to deliver reliable affordable electricity, then a reliance on a completely free market system for the short term may not work in the long term. Low-cost producers are not necessarily reliable producers. Where reliability is a major issue, longer term bids might be better.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Record-breaking Coral Sea temperatures threaten the Great Barrier Reef
Coral analyses show the region is sweltering under the highest ocean heat in four centuries
By Carolyn Gramling, Science News, Aug 7, 2024
Link to paper: Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger
By Benjamin J. Henley, et al., Nature, Aug 7, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07672-x
Global warming threatens up to 90 percent of global coral reefs, said Helen McGregor, a paleoclimatologist at Australia’s University of Wollongong. “The more [emissions] we cut now, the better off not just the Great Barrier Reef will be, but society is going to be. It’s the coral in the coal mine.”
[SEPP Comment: The oldest corals, living today, began over 500 million years ago and went through Hothouse Earth, now they will swelter in Icehouse Earth?]
Incentivizing Innovation: The Key to Solving Our Climate Crisis
By Mary Anna Mancuso, Real Clear Energy, August 07, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/07/incentivizing_innovation_the_key_to_solving_our_climate_crisis_1050172.html
[SEPP Comment: The simplistic solution to a non-problem – more money!]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
VPD, Vapor Pressure Deficit a Correlation to Global Cloud Fraction?
By Charles Blaisdell, PhD ChE, WUWT, Aug 6, 2024
Countering the climate exaggerators squatting in the house of weather
By Joe Bastardi, CFACT, Aug 1, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/08/01/countering-the-climate-exaggerators-squatting-in-the-house-of-weather/#
Energy Sound Bites on Fossil Fuels, Part 3
Easy-to-remember arguments on fossil fuels and climate
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Aug 6, 2024
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/energy-sound-bites-on-fossil-fuels-b4b?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=513601&post_id=147256936&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Environmentalism or Individualism? (Part 1)
By Robert Bidinotto, Master Resource, Aug 9, 2024
The beginning of a six-part series.
Greenhouse Gases Are a Scientific Myth
By James T. Moodey, American Thinker, Aug 7, 2024
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/08/greenhouse_gases_are_a_scientific_myth.html
[SEPP Comment: Greenhouse gases may be an inappropriate term for the gases that delay Earth’s radiation energy from reaching space. However, unfortunately, the author confuses radiation energy with heat. Sunlight is radiated through space, but it does not heat it. As the author states, atmospheric gases do not retain heat. Without continuous radiation energy from Earth, the radiation energy in the atmospheric gases will dissipate.]
Energy & Environmental Review: August 5, 2024
By John Droz, Jr, Master Resource, Aug 5, 2024
Seeking a Common Ground
Role of Humans in the Global Water Cycle and Impacts on Climate Change
By Bruce Peachey and Nobuo Maeda, Climate Etc., Aug 4, 2024
Human activities indeed have been impacting climate but most of the key factors are related to water, as opposed to CO2. Atmospheric water vapor increase in the Northern Hemisphere has been by several percent per decade. In contrast, there has been little change in the Southern Hemisphere. Unlike water, CO2 is in a single phase and largely uniformly distributed in the atmosphere. Thus, if CO2 were the cause of the current climate change, and if the ocean is the source of the water vapor that is supposed to increase by about 6 to 7% in response to every 1 °C of warming caused by the non-aqueous greenhouse gases, then the Southern Hemisphere should have observed more of the consequences than the Northern Hemisphere due to its much larger surface area of the oceans.
Why ‘Forever Chemicals’ are Forever
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, July 29, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/07/29/why-forever-chemicals-are-forever-48897
The addition of fluorine atoms makes chemicals even more stable; it is no coincidence that PFOA and PFAS were synthesized for specific purposes like non-stick cookware, firefighting foam, and water-repellant fabrics. This is because the carbon-fluorine bond is the strongest of all carbon-heteroatom bonds.
When companies began producing inert chemicals like PFAS and PCBs, it was almost inevitable that these substances would persist in the environment. Does this mean that they should never have been made? This question is not as straightforward as it seems. While we could do without grease-resistant pizza boxes and water-resistant makeup, PFAS are essential for making critical medical devices such as catheters, implants, surgical sutures, and dialysis equipment.
Models v. Observations
New Study: CO2 Effects On Ocean Temps ‘Impossible’ To Measure…Must Be ‘Schemed’ With Models
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 6, 2024
Link to paper: Skin sea surface temperature schemes in coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling: the impact of chlorophyll-interactive e-folding depth
By Vincenzo de Toma, et al., Geoscientific Model Development, July 5, 2024
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/5145/2024
[SEPP Comment: Since infrared radiation from the atmosphere does not penetrate beyond a few millimeters of the ocean, to understand the greenhouse effect on the ocean, the ocean skin must be measured, but it cannot be measured.]
Changing Weather
Met Office Admit [wind] Storms Were Much Worse In Past
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2024
The Daily Temperature Range from High to Low Temperatures: Why Does It Vary So Much?
On some days there are huge differences between the high and low temperatures. On other days the differences are relatively small.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 6, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-daily-temperature-range-from-high.html
You think CO2 acts like an atmospheric blanket? Water vapor is even better. Desert areas are notorious for cooling off at night…. contributing to a large diurnal range.
Changing Seas
Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating?
By Andy May, WUWT, Aug 4, 2024
Huge Increase in Coral Produces Third Year of Record Highs on the Great Barrier Reef
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 9, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
As is often the case with publicly funded operations, the political message is never far from the surface. Thus, we learn that “enabling coral reefs to survive these stressful conditions requires a combination of a reduction in global greenhouse emissions to stabilize temperatures… and the development of interventions to help reefs adapt to and recover from the effects of climate change”. No doubt this last proposal requires large amounts of money from the taxpayer to cover the costs of such worthy work.
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Study: A Crustacean That Swam In Antarctic Lakes During The Last 2000 Years Cannot Do So Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 8, 2024
Link to paper: The Late Holocene deglaciation of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula: OSL and 14C-dated multi-proxy sedimentary record from Monolith Lake
By Matěj Roman, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, June 1, 2024
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737912400194X
[SEPP Comment: Near Mendal Polar Station (63°48′02.3″ S), outside the Antarctic Circle (66°35′50″ S)
Earth-rebound reduces Antarctic sea-level rise by 40%
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Aug 6, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/antarctic-sea-level-rise-40-lower-than-predicted
Link to paper: The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels
By Nataly Gomez, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Aug 2, 2024
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adn1470
[SEPP Comment: The research is based on an assumed relationship between CO2-caused warming and Antarctic ice melt. The assumption is contradicted by physical evidence.]
Lost for 30 years in a freezer: The whole of Greenland melted away when CO2 was perfect — consensus broken
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 9, 2024
Link to paper: Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times
By Paul R. Bierman, et al., PNAS, Aug 5, 2024
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2407465121
Abstract: The persistence and size of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) through the Pleistocene is uncertain. This is important because reconstructing changes in the GrIS determines its contribution to sea level rise during prior warm climate periods and informs future projections. To understand better the history of Greenland’s ice, we analyzed glacial till collected in 1993 from below 3 km of ice at Summit, Greenland. The till contains plant fragments, wood, insect parts, fungi, and cosmogenic nuclides showing that the bed of the GrIS at Summit is a long-lived, stable land surface preserving a record of deposition, exposure, and interglacial ecosystems. Knowing that central Greenland was tundra-covered during the Pleistocene informs the understanding of Arctic biosphere response to deglaciation.
Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100
By Pengjun Zhao, Yunlin Li & Yu Zhang, Nature, Communications, Earth & Environment, July 30, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01557-7
[SEPP Comment: Didn’t the North Sea route become ice free in 2013? See link immediately below.]
Expert Forecasting
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 9, 2024
Arctic ice free.
Summer Melting Has Plateaued: July Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hasn’t Fallen In 17 Years!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 6, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The peak low was in 2020]
Growth Of The Petermann Glacier
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 8, 2024
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” — George Orwell, 1984
Video on Glacial growth in Greenland causing icebergs.
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
No Farms, No Food
By David Bell, MD, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 8, 2024
Does the Energy Transition Affect Food Prices and Agricultural Production?
By Luccas Assis Attílio and Emilson Attiilo, The University of Auckland Business School Research Paper Forthcoming, May 29, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4847337
Lowering Standards
What The Met Office Did Not Tell You About Extreme Temperature
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 9, 2024
Link to Press Release: Temperature extremes and records most affected by UK’s changing climate
Met Office, July 25, 2024
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/temperature-extremes-and-records-most-affected-by-uks-changing-climate
Link to report: State of the UK Climate 2023
By Mike Kendon, et al., International Journal of Climate, July 24, 2024
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8553
From press release: Climate change is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes and number of temperature records the UK experiences.
[Using data, Homewood shows no trend.]. “The most extreme years were 1963, 1976, 1983, 1995, 2010 and 2018.
This analysis was easy to do, so why did the Met Office do something similar in their State of the UK Climate Report this year?
Instead, they chose to deliberately deceive the public into believing that UK weather is becoming more extreme.”
The Farce of Academic Activism: When Universities Pander to Ideologues
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 4, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Right, Washington Post, Rural Areas Are Significantly Cooler Than Cities, But Please Learn How to Convert Celsius to Fahrenheit
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 8, 2024
No, Rigzone, Extreme Weather Is Not Becoming Increasingly Dangerous for Oil and Gas Companies
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Aug 5, 2024
Wrong, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Moms Have Little Reason to Worry About Climate Change
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Aug 8, 2024
Guardian: “Climate Deniers” make up Nearly a Quarter of US Congress
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 6, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Repetition increases belief in climate-skeptical claims, even for climate science endorsers
By Yangxueqing Jiang, et al., Plos One, Aug 7, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0307294
[SEPP Comment: Does not define: What is climate science?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Record Heat In Africa
By Tonny Heller, His Blog, Aug 9, 2024
Despite having no data for the Congo and much of Africa, NOAA has determined that June was record hot there.
US Tornado Review 2023
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2024
Link to: Annual 2023 Tornadoes Report
By Staff, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, January 2024
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/202313
From Homewood: According to NOAA’s latest annual report, the frequency of US tornadoes has been steadily rising since the 1950s. To the average reader, this is obviously down to global warming, which we all know makes weather more extreme!
Nowhere does their report mention that we are observing more tornadoes nowadays because of better technology and reporting procedures, not because more are actually occurring. Here is the guidance that NOAA published a few years ago, something that has mysteriously disappeared from their website now. Thanks to Wayback, we can still view it.
There was no EF-5 last year, nor any so far this year. The last was the Moore tornado in 2013. On average there are two EF-5s every year three years. The longest previous absence of EF-5s was between 1999 and 2007.
Moreover, with only two EF-4s last year. only 2005 and 2018 had fewer.
The evidence clearly shows that tornadoes have become less intense since reliable records began in 1970, but NOAA would like you to believe otherwise.
It is hard to describe NOAA’s reporting of tornadoes as anything other than fraudulent.
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
7 in 10 Americans say extreme heat impacting electricity bills: Survey
By Tara Suter, The Hill, Aug 7, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4816048-extreme-heat-affects-electricity-bills
Link to poll: The July 2024 AP-NORC Center Poll
By The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
[SEPP Comment: After a group of politicalized, leading questions comes: “Do you think climate change is caused entirely by human activities, caused mostly by human activities, caused about equally by human activities and natural changes in the environment, caused mostly by natural changes in the environment, or caused entirely by natural changes in the environment?”
In general, how well does each of the following describe how you feel when you think about climate change?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
National Trust’s Garden of the Future
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 7, 2024
Homewood: We were promised Mediterranean summers decades ago. And we’re still waiting.
I often cycle around Beningbrough, [where the garden is located] which is near York and stop off for a slice of cake! I can assure you that the gardens there are doing just fine.
In fact, I was on my bike near Thirsk last week, but apparently missed the climate crisis!
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Claim: Aussie Teachers are Slow Walking the Mandatory Climate Curriculum
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 8, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Just Stop Oil claims climate change will lead to Southport-style riots
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6, 2024
Questioning European Green
Britain is Leading the World on Net Zero, But No One is Following
By Will Jones, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Leading a fool’s errand by example can be lonely.]
Handelsblatt’ Reports: Photovoltaics “Causing Problems Electricity Distribution Grids
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 3, 2024
Photovoltaics are escalating power grid instability in Germany, thus increasing the risk of regional blackouts. Too many cheap, uncontrollable systems from China are flooding the market.
[SEPP Comment: Unreliable electricity creates instability regardless of source.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
‘A disaster’: Paris Olympics’ lack of ‘meat-based protein’ to lower ‘carbon footprint’ creates havoc: ‘Athletes complain about the lack of animal protein-rich diet’
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Aug 4, 2024
Indonesia’s net zero nickel boom fuels destruction of rainforests and coral reefs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2024
What Indonesia do is up to them, and we certainly should not deny them the chance capitalise on their resources.
But it undermines environmentalists’ claims about clean energy. They know full well the impact on the environment from nickel mining, not to mention cobalt, lithium and all of the other materials needed to power the renewable economy.
It is hypocritical for them to ignore it.
Funding Issues
Banks Bolster Support for Oil and Gas [Global Gas Perspectives]
By Charles Ellinas, Natural Gas World, Aug 6, 2024
https://www.naturalgasworld.com/banks-bolster-support-for-oil-and-gas-global-gas-perspectives-112507?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202023%20-%20TueThu%20copy%202&utm_content=Daily%20Newsletter%202023%20-%20TueThu%20copy%202+CID_4bd11490be47ee1f320283367bb0da71&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Banks%20bolster%20support%20for%20oil%20and%20gas%20Global%20Gas%20Perspectives
UN’s new climate disaster fund at risk of mismanagement
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2024
Link to paper: The Climate Disaster Fund
By Ralph Alexander, GWPF, 2024
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/08/Alexander-UN-Climate-Funds.pdf?mc_cid=ad625e94a2&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
[SEPP Comment: Another UN boondoggle?]
Litigation Issues
From EPA’s Lips to the Minority’s Ears
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Aug 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The West Virginia v. EPA decision stating that Congress did not give the EPA the necessary authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and change the electricity structure of the US. It limited the powers of agency “expertise.”]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
CfD Renewables Costing £151/MWh This Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2024
One of the reasons for the drop since last year is the return to the mix of biomass generators such as Drax, which were largely missing in 2023 because they could not make money. Drax, for instance, is guaranteed a price of £138/MWh.
The promised reduction in costs from offshore wind farms has so far had little effect on the overall cost of renewables
[SEPP Comment: Is one subsidy competing with another subsidy price competition?]
Major Solar Company Files For Bankruptcy After California Strips Subsidies
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Aug 6, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/06/solar-sunpower-california-bankruptcy-subsidies/#google_vignette
[SEPP Comment: Is this what is meant when politicians say sustainable green jobs? The subsidies need to be sustained?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
New EPA Rules Could Dangerously Close Baseload Power Plants
By Bernard L. Weinstein, WUWT, Aug 6, 2024
EPA issues emergency order to halt use of dangerous pesticide
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 6, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4814057-epa-emergency-order-dangerous-pesticide-dcpa-dacthal
Link to press release: EPA Issues Emergency Order to Stop Use of Pesticide Dacthal to Address Serious Health Risk
By Staff, EPA, Aug 6, 2024
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-issues-emergency-order-stop-use-pesticide-dacthal-address-serious-health-risk-4
[SEPP Comment: Lots of press releases supporting move but no link to a study showing this weed control used on crops such as broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cabbage and onions is harmful to humans.]
State of Alaska’s “Priority Climate Plan” (EPA bribe = trouble)
By Kassie Andrews, Master Resource, Aug 6, 2024
Energy Issues – Non-US
Power Chiefs Fear Blackouts In London
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 7, 2024
Ed Miliband must ditch his ludicrous EPC targets – for everyone’s sake
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 9, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
Renewable Hell: Electricity price spikes hit $16,000 morning and night in our two largest states
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 6, 2024
Energy Issues — US
It’s Time to Take America’s Energy Choices Back
By David Holt, Environment & Climate News, Aug 2, 2024
No Debate Required With Natural Gas
By David Callahan, Real Clear Wire, Aug 2, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://realclearwire.com/articles/2024/08/02/no_debate_required_with_natural_gas_1049136.html
Multiple reports show New York’s climate goals could harm residents, but they fall on deaf ears
Multiple reports show that New York’s Climate Act, which promises to deliver 100% renewable energy, could potentially create dangerous blackouts during inclement weather. Yet the state’s leadership remains committed to its climate goals.
By Kevin Killough, Just the News, Aug 7, 2024
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/multiple-reports-show-new-yorks-climate-goals-could-harm-residents-they-fall
New Orleans and the Nation Need to Get Serious About Investing in Our Electric Grid
By Casey DeMoss, Real Clear Energy, August 05, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/05/new_orleans_and_the_nation_need_to_get_serious_about_investing_in_our_electric_grid_1049149.html
Second, limbs from our world-renowned tree canopy wreak havoc on our power lines. In New Orleans, the city’s tree-cutting rules err on the side of the tree, not the power line. Birds, squirrels, and insects that live in the tree have easy access to the wires, and they take their tolls.
Houston: Oil and Gas Capital (‘energy transition’ hyperbole falls flat)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 8, 2024
“City leaders should stop pretending Houston will, or should, transition away from oil and gas anytime soon…. Houston should embrace its role in sustaining and improving the lives of literally billions of people globally each day. It’s a legacy worth standing up for… and even celebrating.” (Doug Sheridan)
Coming Clean on Clean Energy: It’s a Dirty Business
By Kristen Walker, Real Clear Energy, August 06, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/06/coming_clean_on_clean_energy_its_a_dirty_business_1049839.html
Each energy source, including fossil fuels, should be considered as part of an all-of-the-above strategy for supplying the necessary energy to power homes, businesses, and the U.S. economy at large. All of them come with some degree of environmental concerns, and each should be weighed and measured—along with costs, logistics, reliability, and geopolitical factors—when developing public policy.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Markey, Grijalva urge pause on deepwater oil terminal approvals
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 9, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4821039-markey-grijalva-call-oil-export-terminals
Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) on Friday called on the Biden administration to pause approvals for deepwater oil export terminals. … Markey and Grijalva called for the approval criteria for deepwater terminals to be expanded to factor in criteria like public health, environmental justice and impact on climate change. [Boldface added]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Future EU demand does not match with future US LNG exports [Global Gas Perspectives]
By Thierry Bros, Natural Gas World, Aug 1, 2024
https://www.naturalgasworld.com/future-eu-demand-does-not-match-with-future-us-lng-exports-global-gas-perspectives-112427?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202023%20-%20TueThu%20copy%202&utm_content=Daily%20Newsletter%202023%20-%20TueThu%20copy%202+CID_4bd11490be47ee1f320283367bb0da71&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor
Neil Atkinson: Peak Oil by 2030? The IEA Needs a Reality Check.
By Neil Atkinson, Real Clear Energy, August 06, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/06/neil_atkinson_peak_oil_by_2030_the_iea_needs_a_reality_check_1049915.html
Summer Talking Points: Gasoline Prices
Any politician who supports the “net zero” agenda is working to make gasoline prices much higher
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Aug 9, 2024
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/summer-talking-points-gasoline-prices?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=513601&post_id=147208250&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Is the future of nuclear power in the wilds of Wyoming?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Aug 5, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/08/05/is-the-future-of-nuclear-power-in-the-wilds-of-wyoming
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Scottish Wind Power from Diesel Generators
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Aug 8, 2024
Tech Titan’s Quest for Net Zero
By Bill Ponton, Real Clear Energy, August 06, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/06/tech_titans_quest_for_net_zero_1049880.html
[SEPP Comment: The tech titan’s numbers, Switch Inc., don’t add up to its claims?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Germany Green Transition Collapse: Electric Vehicle Sales Plummet 47% In First Half Of This Year!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 7, 2024
Meanwhile petrol and diesel engine car sales have risen 24% and 20% respectively.
Electric car sales forecast slashed as drivers turn to secondhand market
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6, 2024
Secondhand electric car market “booms” as drivers hunt for ‘middle-aged’ models
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Are sellers of EVs accepting huge losses?]
“EV-phobia spreads” in South Korea after a Mercedes EV spontaneously combusts in the basement
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 7, 2024
Climate Change Weekly #515: EV Dangers Daily Becoming More Evident
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Daily News, Aug 8, 2024
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Dioxide Removal
Mitigating Ocean Acidification and Climate Change
By Staff, NOAA, Accessed Aug 8, 2024 [H/t WUWT]
https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/carbon-dioxide-removal
Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Battle: Seize Land for Green Energy?
By Steve Goreham, Real Clear Energy, August 06, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/06/carbon_dioxide_pipeline_battle_seize_land_for_green_energy_1049891.html
On June 25, the Iowa Utilities Board (IUB) granted the petition of Summit Carbon Solutions (Summit) for a permit to build a CO2 pipeline across Iowa. The IUB determined that the pipeline was for “public use,” and granted Summit the right to seize land from Iowa landowners using eminent domain. Eminent domain has typically been used to take private land for government projects that serve a public good, but not for private industry.
[SEPP Comment: Another climate war profiteer selling an inferior product at a high price?]
California Dreaming
Comprehensive Water Policy Recommendations Released
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Aug 8, 2024
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7858982?e=cd9fa89d1e
Health, Energy, and Climate
If Climate Change affects poor children’s brains, then the answer is fossil fuels and cheap air conditioning
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 4, 2024
Link to Editorial: Climate change has serious implications for children’s brain health
By Evelina London Children’s Hospital, London; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London; and Neuro Climate Working Group, Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education, Columbia University, New York, BMJ Journal, July 22, 2024
https://www.bmj.com/content/386/bmj.q1588
Wildfire smoke may impact anesthesia, surgical outcomes: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Aug 6, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4813562-wildfire-smoke-anesthesia-surgery-risk-study
Link to study requires membership in American Society of Anesthesiologists
Environmental Industry
Climate Activists Eating Their Own? Vox Accuses WWF of Greenwashing the Meat Industry
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 9, 2024
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Feeding cows pills to suppress their burps ‘can cut emissions’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to “study.”]
Technical University Munich: “Why we can’t predict the timing of climate tipping points”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 3, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Are climate tipping points real or imagined?]
ARTICLES
1. Green-Energy Flops Revive Bets on Natural Gas
European energy giants Shell and BP are sticking to their core business as clean-energy investments make slow progress
By Carol Ryan, WSJ, Aug. 5, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/green-energy-flops-revive-bets-on-natural-gas-cb3d42b2?mod=business_lead_story
TWTW Summary: The article begins:
“Biofuels are the latest green-energy investment to disappoint. That leaves the hopes of Europe’s oil and gas giants pinned on an old standby of the energy transition: liquefied natural gas.
Shell and BP had high expectations of biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, pouring billions of dollars into the market. But things have hit a rough patch.
Last week, Shell took a $780 million impairment after pausing construction on a Dutch plant that was meant to become one of Europe’s biggest biofuel facilities. BP abandoned plans for two out of five potential biofuel refineries, although it also bought out its joint-venture partner in Brazil-based BP Bunge Bioenergia in June.
A glut of biofuels, particularly cheap Chinese imports, is squeezing profit margins. Finland and Sweden have also watered down rules about the minimum amounts of renewable fuels that must be blended into petroleum-based transport fuel or heating oil as they try to bring down energy costs. Producers rely on these government mandates to generate demand.
Biofuels will still be crucial to reducing carbon emissions in the transport sector. The International Energy Agency thinks the energy source will eventually have a bigger share of the global mix than wind power, if net-zero targets are reached. But it will be tough to make money in the short term as the market is likely to be oversupplied until around 2027, Bernstein’s energy analyst Irene Himona estimates.”
After going through other problems, the article concludes with;
“For now, LNG is the obvious way to keep profits flowing to shareholders while also making progress on emissions. But piling in may store up pain for the future.”
************
2. Walz’s Climate Policies Could Leave the Midwest in the Dark
Minnesota isn’t alone in pursuing ‘net zero,’ leaving nowhere to go when solar and wind power fail.
By Joshua Antonini and Jason Hayes, WSJ, Aug. 9, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/walzs-climate-policies-could-leave-the-midwest-in-the-dark-energy-electricity-net-zero-d1014efb?mod=WTRN_pos2&cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_171&cx_artPos=1
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz last year signed one of America’s most aggressive climate laws, mandating that 100% of the state’s electricity come from carbon-free sources by 2040. Even if he doesn’t ascend to national office, he may end up leaving not only Minnesota but other states in the dark. As we show in a new paper, politicians like Mr. Walz are destroying the electricity markets that are essential to economic success and even individual survival.
We analyzed seven Great Lakes states with connected electricity grids—Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For decades, these states have bought and sold electricity in regional markets, benefiting from the abundance of reliable power generated from sources like coal, natural gas and nuclear. But through a combination of state mandates and utility company decisions, all of them are moving away from those reliable sources toward unreliable wind and solar power, in pursuit of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Where will states like Minnesota turn when the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining, two inevitable daily occurrences? Mr. Walz and net-zero backers surely assumed they could buy backup power from across the region, but other states assumed the same thing. In a classic tragedy of the commons, Mr. Walz and other leaders act as if they don’t realize their neighbors are also on track to run short of power.
Minnesota is moving to close its largest power station—the coal-fired Sherco plant—by the end of the decade. It has already shut down one of the plant’s three units, with the second going offline by 2026. The largest solar project in the Upper Midwest is supposed to replace it, but when it fails, Minnesota will have to rely on other power sources to keep the lights on.
Can it look to Wisconsin? That’s getting harder. The Badger State has its own net-zero mandate and is rapidly decommissioning power plants, while its largest utility plans to phase out coal power within a decade. Likewise, Illinois, where a net-zero requirement has already contributed to power-supply issues, with multiple plant closings under way.
In 2020, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued an executive order committing the state to net-zero emissions by 2050. The state Legislature subsequently expanded the mandate, requiring electricity providers to use 100% ‘clean energy’ sources by 2040. Utilities are already closing coal plants, have closed nuclear ones, and are dramatically ramping up wind and solar.
Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania don’t have state mandates, but utilities have committed to net-zero or carbon-free emissions and shuttered coal- and petroleum-fired plants in 2023 and 2024. One Ohio generating station was the largest plant to close in America last year. Each closing leaves states with less electricity to share.
When subzero temperatures sweep across the Great Lakes every January, states will increasingly ask each other for power that doesn’t exist. Ditto when heat waves crest in July and August. Factories will lose power—a death knell for competitiveness—while families will lose air conditioning or heat. In Michigan, we estimate that a wind-, solar- and battery-based grid will cause blackouts lasting as long as three days during extreme winter weather. People will die.”
The article discusses warnings given by power authorities but ignored, then concludes with:
“State leaders need to wake up, and soon. While there’s no chance Mr. Walz will abandon his signature climate policy during a national campaign, no state should endanger its economy and residents by pursuing net zero.”
Mr. Antonini is a research analyst and Mr. Hayes director of energy and environmental policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.
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