The Week That Was: 2024 08-31 (August 31, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance—that principle is contempt prior to investigation.” Attributed to Herbert Spencer (1820-1903) English philosopher, biologist, anthropologist, sociologist and polymath. [H/t William Readdy]
Number of the Week: 226 USD/MWh v. $106/MWh
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW concludes Tom Gallagher’s discussion of the Holocene, the past 11,000 years and what climate models miss. John Constable has an essay on the enormous land use needed for industrial wind. Jan Emblemsvåg calculated an estimate for the levelized cost of solar power including the needed storage. Robert Bradley discusses the useful and misunderstood economic concept Creative Destruction.
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The Holocene: Last week, TWTW further discussed the lecture of Tom Gallagher: Lessons from Paleoclimatology: Conveniently Ignored By the IPCC, Part II. This week will conclude the lecture. The third lecture was discussed in TWTW on July 29, 2023. Among the important points raised in lecture 2 covered last week is the huge error range in energy imbalance in the models used by the UN IPCC and its collaborators. The estimated Surface Imbalance is 0.6 W/m2 with an error range of plus or minus 17 W/m2. The error range is 28 times the estimated value, an absurd error for “settled” science.
A second major error is the treatment of carbonic acid that is formed when CO2 is combined with water. [An important distinction not made by Gallagher: water vapor consists of individual H2O molecules; steam and clouds refer to water droplets. The droplets can combine with CO2 to form carbonic acid H2CO3. The water vapor molecules, not so much. H2CO3 is the compound that is used by green plants in photosynthesis. The calculations of the IPCC and its collaborators ignore carbonic acid and use laboratory air stripped of water vapor for the basis of their calculations. This is unrealistic. [The same criticism of unrealistic applies to the calculations of the effects of methane, CH4 (from livestock), and nitrous oxide (from manufactured fertilizer). The radiative effects of these two gases are minimal in the real atmosphere which contains water vapor.]
Green plants use the enzymes called Carbonic Anhydrase in their stoma to convert carbonic acid to carbon dioxide and water. Gallagher states:
“Under higher altitude and colder conditions carbonic acid cannot be easily delivered to plants, defining tree lines for latitude and elevations of mountains. Tree ring growth (reduced growth) shows this reduction in the winter. This is based on reduction of delivery of carbonic acid. Nature would not have developed this system if plants could use CO2 directly. The whole process of CO2 induced global warming theory needs to be rethought.” [Boldface added]
Gallagher states, incorrectly, that the warming effect of carbonic acid is blocked by water vapor.
According to Gallagher, in the troposphere [before water vapor freezes out], with respect to Long Wave Radiation from the Earth: Water Vapor is also the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Outgoing Heat, radiated in the form of Long Wave IR Radiation form Earth’s surface, is absorbed by water vapor molecules in the Troposphere. The water vapor molecules, in turn, radiate heat in all directions. Some of the heat returns to the Earth’s surface. Thus, water vapor provides a second source of warmth (in addition to sunlight) at the Earth’s surface.
Planets with Condensable Gases Have Three Phase Systems (Gas, Liquid and Solid) that store energy as Latent Heat of evaporation, condensation, and sublimation.
Water Vapor abundance rises logarithmically with Temperature – for all relative humidity levels (Temperatures from 30 to 90 F)
Water Vapor does not absorb much energy in the visible light spectrum (sunlight)
Abundance of water vapor determines the ability of air to absorb heat.
To support his statements Gallagher shows a graph:
“Water Vapor effect on Outgoing IR radiation of Earth (Satellite DATA multi- year) Clear Skies”
“The Anticipated Black Body Hyperbolic Curve That Was Expected v. actual curve Linear.
Earth is not a Black-Body Radiator Due to Water Vapor Log rise with T [temperature]
PNAS D. Kool Oct 9, 2018
Why doesn’t the observe data match the theory?
Thermal radiation from Earth is controlled by water vapor, not CO2.
There is no radiation ‘fingerprint’ from CO2 detected directly in this satellite data.
Weather Balloon data has corroborated these results see slide Stratospheric Altitude Water Vapor Concentration [v. Troposphere]
In all stages (altitude intervals) reacting together, and the relationship is not according to temperature. Water vapor is climbing in steps from 1980 to 2010, it is pulsating in stages.
Global Temperature Tracks Water Vapor: not CO2
Temperature changes correlated with Total Precipitable Water, Not CO2 – Why”
According to Dan Pangburn (2021) – Increase in water vapor is dominated by excesses water from Irrigation.
Atomic Testing gave a logarithmic curve for the fall in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the residence time is far shorter than what the IPCC and model builders claim which use the Bern model (half-life 10 years v 50 years)
Gallagher discusses the MODTRAN IR Model Results which are similar to the HITRAN IR Model results.
However, Gallagher does not understand the absorption cross-sections and the collision processes. For example, he says that the effect of CO2 is negligible until the upper atmosphere, where it radiates to outer space. How does it radiate if it’s not in excited states, and how did they get to be excited on a continuous basis? He shows a graph indicating that 15-30% of upgoing IR from the surface goes to space,YET the amount going to space is 60% of the amount radiated by the surface. It’s all in the collisional dynamics that he says nothing about.
Further, Gallagher states that Earth does not emit as a Black Body. However, the surface does. Due to greenhouse gases, the planet does not emit as a Black body. What satellites see is non-black body of the atmospheric window, because of the notches in the spectrum caused by CO2 and O3 (ozone).
To TWTW, this latter section of Gallagher’s presentation has significant errors and will not be presented here.
In his summary and conclusions on the Holocene, Gallagher states.
- “During the HOLOCENE (the last 11,000 years), Temperature and CO2 Concentration are NOT LINKED
- Temperature is linked to Solar Activity
- Temperature is linked to Water Vapor
- The ITCZ [Intertropical Convergence Zone] moves [North or South] seasonally and climatically with the tilt of the earth.
- Existing models have Large Error Limits, giving poor definition of small energy imbalance outcomes.
- Existing models exclude Ocean Energy Storage System and Clouds
- Solar activity drives Ocean Water Energy Absorption and Currents
- Atmospheric analysis needs to include Carbonic Acid products, not just CO2.
- Analysis needs to include Rain pH, Carbonic Anhydrase, and the Plant Cycle
- Water Vapor dominates the absorption bands of both Carbonic Acid and CO2
- CO2 appears to radiate and cool the upper atmosphere [stratosphere]
CO2 gas has negligible influences below the upper troposphere.”
Based on the work of W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer using the HITRAN database, SEPP calculates that the total influence of carbon dioxide on Earth’s temperatures is about 25% of the greenhouse effect. Water vapor accounts for almost all of the remaining effect, except for naturally occurring ozone. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Industrial Land Use: Jo Nova discusses an article by John Constable in UK’ The Spectator.
Constable is the energy editor for the Global Warming Policy Foundation and has authored many perceptive articles on the subject exposing the glossed over weaknesses of wind and solar power. “In The terrifying scale of the green revolution,” Constable writes: [Boldface added]
“Many have been emotionally drawn to the green revolution in the belief that renewable energy will restore our personal and community independence. According to this, by investing in green technology, Britain will gain freedom from coal barons and gouging sheikhs, and deliver a grassroots, democratic energy system. Ed Miliband played into this on Friday when he blamed the energy price cap being raised on the ‘failed energy policy we inherited, which has left our country at the mercy of international gas markets controlled by dictators.’
Others believe green energy represents the free spirit and harmony with nature. ‘What would you rather have in your neighborhood?’ I remember being asked in 2005. ‘A little wind turbine swirling gently in the breeze, or a nuclear power station and pylons?’
The low energy density of wind and sun means that extremely large collection devices are needed.
As it is turning out, and particularly so now that Ed Miliband is back in charge of energy policy after 14 years in the wilderness, the green transition means armies of gargantuan wind turbines on land and sea; great blue-black mirror of solar panels glazing over thousands of acres of farmland; a neurotic spider’s web of grid cables crisscrossing the country; and dozens and dozens of whining substations and vast Area 51-like compounds of shipping-container sized lithium-ion batteries.
As if that were not bad enough, it transpires that in spite of all this green industrialization we will still require nuclear and conventional gas turbine power stations. We may not use them as much, but reliability is an issue with wind and solar, and therefore generators are needed to guarantee security of supply at times when the British weather fails to deliver. ‘Who knew, except everyone?’ as the Americans say.
Still, the sheer immensity of low carbon industrialization is coming as an unwelcome shock to those who only a few years ago would have at least passively supported wind and solar development.
There was clearly a profound misunderstanding about the physical character of renewable energy power systems. But no one should in fact be surprised. The physics of renewable energy is inescapable.
While there is a substantial quantity of energy in the wind, the thermodynamic quality of that energy is very low. It is for this reason that there are no organisms that derive their metabolic energy from wind, an extraordinary fact given its widespread availability at unthreatening temperatures. Wind energy is simply too chaotic to support life.
Solar radiation is somewhat better. Indeed, outside the earth’s atmosphere it is of fairly high quality. But on the surface of the planet and seen from the perspective of a leaf or a photovoltaic cell it is hindered by atmospheric interference, clouds, and airborne dust, and critically by the rotation of the earth. Plants do derive energy from sunshine, but they are relatively simple organisms, and they do not move rapidly or have complex nervous systems.
Some aspects of these simple facts about wind and solar energy flows are intuitively obvious but the critical implications tend to escape even those well versed in physics.
The low energy density of wind and sun means that extremely large collection devices are needed – enormous wind turbines with large blades, vast areas of solar panels. It is necessarily a capital-intensive and very expensive system.
A concrete example will make this clear. The 1,400 Megawatts (MW) Sophia Offshore Wind Farm on the Dogger Bank is currently under construction and will cover an area of nearly 600 square kilometers (it would just about fit into Middlesex). It is one of many major wind installations that the government is intending to drive through in its ambition to quadruple offshore capacity. We currently produce about 15 Gigawatts (GW) of operational offshore wind power. To meet this quadrupling of capacity, we would need around 30 more Sophia Offshore wind farms.
The Sophia will use the Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD, one of the largest wind turbines on the market, with a generating capacity of 14 MW. It has three blades 108m in length, each weighing 65 tonnes [metric tons]. The nacelle, the box containing the generator at the top of the tower, weighs 500 tonnes, which Siemens proudly describes as a lightweight machine. Compared to other brands, this may even be true.
The overall height of the turbine is 252m, only 60m short of Britain’s tallest building, the Shard. Its foundations will, according to Sophia’s own publicity, be 80 to 90m in length and weigh 1,200 to 1,400 tonnes each. The total weight of each turbine – blades, nacelle, tower, and foundations – is likely to be nudging towards 3,000 tonnes.
Sofia will use 100 of these structures, so we can estimate that the wind farm alone accounts for about 300,000 tonnes of industrial equipment, mostly steel, some concrete, and fiber-glass reinforced epoxy in the blades. (For reference, a Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carrier weighs a mere 65,000 tonnes.) And this is before we have taken into account the offshore substations and the cables connecting each turbine and the shoreline.
Multiply all this by 30 to meet the government’s offshore wind targets, and you arrive at nine million tons of industrial equipment for the additional offshore installations alone. For scale, recall that the UK’s total annual production of steel is only six million tons, and you can begin to appreciate the magnitude of Ed Miliband’s plans for the country. This Wind and Sun King makes Louis XIV look humble.
The total manufacturing mass involved in Sophia is difficult for anyone outside the project to calculate, but the order of magnitude is clear: it’s huge, and regardless of your views on its beauty, it’s certainly not going to be cheap. Sophia states that its total capital cost is in the region of £3 billion, a great deal for an asset exposed to the North Sea and likely to have a short economic lifetime.
Onshore wind farms weigh less than Sophia’s marine leviathans but are of broadly similar dimensions. The Vestas V136 4.2 MW, for example, has blades of 76m and hub heights up to 166m, giving a total overall height of over 240m. The Eiffel Tower is only 60 meters taller. These are the sorts of devices that Ed Miliband now thinks acceptable next to rural dwellings.
But relative to their size, these wind farms do not produce much energy. Sophia, for example, will produce around six Terawatt hours (TWh) per year, according to the company’s website. Although this is unlikely to be maintained over the entire lifetime of the windfarm, this is still only equivalent to about 2 per cent of total annual UK demand for electricity. Given the sheer size of Sophia that really isn’t very much – only around 0.01 TWh per square kilometer.
Solar, as predicted from theory, is slightly better, but still abysmal. Mr Miliband recently overruled the recommendations of his own planning inspectors to consent to a 500 MW photovoltaic installation on 2,500 acres (10 square kilometers) of Suffolk farmland near Newmarket. It is about 15 miles long and comprises around one million solar panels. In spite of the site’s gross magnitude, it will generate only about 0.5 TWh of electrical energy per year. This is a very poor exchange for the energy or food that could otherwise be grown on the land.
For comparison, consider the Sizewell B nuclear power station, also in Suffolk, and running since 1995. The site occupies a land area of about 0.5 square kilometers, less than a thousandth of Sophia’s area. Still, Sizewell B generates more energy, as much as 10 TWh a year. It is, very roughly, 1,500 times more productive than the Sophia wind farm, and 300 times more productive than the Sunnica solar farm when it comes to space. On this land use basis, Sizewell C, now under construction, can plausibly claim to be 1,000 times more productive than solar and 3,000 times more so than onshore wind.
That is typical for conventional power stations: they are small and highly productive compared to renewables. Correcting the severe physical defects of wind and solar generation requires capital equipment on the grandest of scales, and as a result the adoption of renewables results in a low productivity system which is intrinsically expensive and resource hungry compared to the fossil and nuclear alternatives.”
Not mentioned by Constable is the noise of industrial wind. When the blades pass by the tower they emit a low frequency noise that greatly bothers some humans. Offshore, who knows what the noise does to marine mammals that use echolocation to find prey and defend themselves. When the US Navy tried to build major extremely low frequency electromagnetic devices to communicate with submarines, the environmental industry objected claiming damage to marine mammals. Now the environmental industry is silent concerning offshore wind.
Not in my back yard is a common assertion for urban and suburban dwellers who do not want power plants and similar facilities near their homes. Now, rural dwellers are raising similar objections and are being ignored by urbanites. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Costly “Free” Sun? Before the environmental movement became heavily involved in opposing fossil fuels, the goal of electrical power utilities was 99.99% reliable and affordable power. Writing on Germany’s disastrous abandonment of nuclear in favor wind and solar, Ross Pomeroy draws attention to a study by Jan Emblemsvåg, a Professor of Civil Engineering at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)]. This led to a 2020 paper he wrote: On the levelized cost of energy of solar photovoltaics. The abstract states: [Boldface added]
“The Levelized Cost of Energy is frequently used for assessing the economic competitiveness across different technologies. Unfortunately, there are caveats, and a significant problem is that opportunity costs are ignored. This paper therefore addresses how to calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy for Solar Photovoltaics more correctly than today starting from the premise that an energy source has to guarantee an output at a system level. Thus, energy storage systems are required. Furthermore, uncertainty must be handled, and Monte Carlo methods are used here. The lowest Levelized Cost of Energy occurs when the system is designed for continuous operation, as opposed to peak shaving, with 80% of its solution space found between 203 USD/MWh to 252 USD/MWh and an expected value of 226 USD/MWh. This is almost 3 times higher than a narrowly defined Levelized Cost of Energy, which ignores opportunity costs. Hence, it is clear that Solar Photovoltaics can guarantee output within economically feasible limits, albeit currently expensive.”
See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Creative Destruction: Writing in Master Resource, Robert Bradley mention the important economic concept of Creative Destruction, first articulated by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter while he taught at Harvard emphasizing business cycles. Like many concepts in economics creative destruction is misinterpreted by others, sometimes deliberately.
For example, in his book The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith does not discusses capitalism but focuses on the benefits of a freely functioning economy, freed from unnecessary constraints imposed by governments or special interest groups. Later, Marx deliberately chose those who became extremely wealthy through a freely functioning economy to identify such an economy as capitalist, in order to belittle it. In so doing, the general prosperity brought on by the economy is ignored.
Bradley describes creative destruction:
“Energy is the story of creative destruction. Coal gas and later coal oil replaced a variety of animal and vegetable oils, including whale oil, camphene oil, and stearin oil. Crude (mineral) oil then displaced manufactured (coal) oil; just as later natural gas would displace manufactured (coal) gas.” [Boldface italics in original.]
Bradley cites the political economist W.S. Jevons who wrote in 1865:
“Given fossil fuels, the unreliability of wind power and water flow were overcome. ‘The first great requisite of motive power is, that it shall be wholly at our command, to be exerted when, and where, and in what degree we desire,’ Jevons explained. “The wind, for instance, as a direct motive power, is wholly inapplicable to a system of machine labor, for during a calm season the whole business of the country would be thrown out of gear.’”
Promoters and their politicians of wind and solar have changed the timing order of creative destruction. To Schumpeter the creation of a superior, more efficient means came first, followed by the destruction of the less efficient means. Promoters of wind and solar do not have a more efficient means of generating reliable and affordable electricity. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: 226 USD/MWh v. $106/MWh
As stated above, in 2020 Jan Emblemsvåg estimated that with storage, the cost of electricity would be 226 USD/MWh. According to the US Energy Information Agency, in the US for 2020 the average price of electricity to ultimate consumers for all sectors was $106/MWh. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_03
In June 2024, the rolling 12-month average was $128/MWh.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average electricity price in June 2024 was $178/MWh. It was $229/MWh in the Northeast; $162/MWh in the Midwest; $157/MWh in the South; and $212/MWh in the West. For the Pacific it was $245/MWh, with $419 for San Francisco; $230/MWh in Urban Alaska; and $421 in Urban Hawaii.
https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm
State and Federal policies on energy, particularly electricity, are having their effect, and they are not for the benefit of the consumer.
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Albedo explains all warming since 1984
By Chuck Wiese, Meteorologist, Edberry.com, Nov 1, 2023
The Solar Control of Climate: A Review
By David Archibald, The Wentworth Report, Aug 28, 2024
Censorship
Obsessing Over Climate Disinformation Is a Wrong Turn
By Holly Buck, Jacobin Aug 24, 2024
https://jacobin.com/2024/08/climate-disinformation-green-transition-workers
Much of the climate movement is now pouring its energies into combating disinformation. But this focus fails to address real concerns about a green transition and obscures what is needed to win the public over to effective climate action.
[SEPP Comment: Examples of governments punishing those who assert government policy is wrong.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Lessons from Paleoclimatology: Conveniently Ignored By the IPCC
By Tom Gallagher, Irish Climate Science Forum and CLINTEL, April 20, 2022 [H/t Jim O’Brien]
Slides: http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/ICSF%20Paleo%20Talk.pdf
Videos
Paleoclimatology Part 1 https://youtu.be/K6tWEjkEiZU
Paleoclimatology Part 2 https://youtu.be/iZSYSWPYEbU
Paleoclimatology Part 3 https://youtu.be/YMHKt9ylPpQ
Link to paper: An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years
By Thomas Westerhold, et al. (over 20 co-authors), AAAS Science, Sep 11, 2020 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba6853
How Clouds Affect The Seasons
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Aug 29, 2024
What I’d never looked at, though, is the month-by-month record of the surface net CRE. [Net Cloud Radiative Effect] Of course, to look at that we need to look at the hemispheres separately, to avoid the effects of the opposing seasons in the two hemispheres. Figure 2 below, showing northern hemisphere variation by month, was my first surprise.
I did NOT expect the effect to vary from slight warming in the winter to -40 W/m2 cooling in the summer. That is a giant swing in the effect of the clouds.
Being Properly Skeptical of Expert Consensus
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 24, 2024
Saving Lives from Extreme Heat Requires Reducing Urban Heat Island Effects Not CO2!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Aug 26, 2024
Soon et al (2023): The majority of the stations used for comparing the mid-19th century to the present are now urbanized… The rural and urban trend is 60% higher than that for the rural-only record. It seems plausible that at least some of this extra warming is a result of urbanization bias.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
UN Urges Western Nations to phase Out Fossil Fuel
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 28, 2024
The demand is especially funny because fossil fuel is a key component of solar and wind power. Coal is an essential ingredient of solar panels, while oil and gas are essential components of the epoxy or polyester plastic used to form wind turbine blades. An end to coal, oil and gas projects, especially metallurgical coal, would also spell the end of the renewable revolution.
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees: Startling New Research Reveals That CO2 Has More Impact Than Previously Thought
Press Release By Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Aug 27, 2024
Link to paper: Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene
By Caitlyn R. Witkowski, et al., Nature Communications, June 18, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate.
From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily declined from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively.
[SEPP Comment: Using CO2 change from a single site, and then calculating global temperature change using falsified UN IPCC models? What Non-science! Tom Gallagher uses data of both temperature and CO2 from 20 plus sites in many parts of the globe.]
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
By Christoph Bertram, et al., Nature Climate Change, Aug 12, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02073-4
[SEPP Comment: A false goal emphasized to control fossil fuel use.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
New Study: CO2’s Atmospheric Residence Time 4 Years…Natural Sources Drive CO2 Concentration Changes
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 30, 2024
Link to paper: Refined Reservoir Routing (RRR) and Its Application to Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Balance
By Demetris Koutsoyianni, Water, Aug 26, 2024
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/17/2402
[SEPP Comment: The issue really is why CO2 concentrations are higher today than any time since past glacial warm periods. Human emissions are responsible. However, CO2 is not a primary driver of climate or temperature change. It plays a minor role.]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Percent photosynthesis (net CO2 exchange rate) increases for apricots following 300 and 600 ppm increases in the air’s CO2 concentration
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
From the CO2Science archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China Downplays International Hopes Of Beating Carbon Emissions Targets Ahead Of Meeting With Biden Climate Czar
By Owen Kilnsky, Daily Caller, Aug 29, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/29/china-downplays-hopes-carbon-emissions-targets-biden-climate-czar
Crude Reality: South America’s Offshore Oil Buries Net Zero Agenda
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Aug 27, 2024
South American nations are increasingly realigning energy strategies to capitalize on offshore oil and gas reserves, signaling a marked shift from previously stated goals of reducing dependence on fossil fuels to satisfy the net zero agenda of those obsessed with a faux climate emergency.
[SEPP Comment: The BRICS [founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] group is growing, and oil discoveries will promote further growth to oppose policies promoted by the G7 bloc.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Creative Destruction: Fossil Fuels Triumphant
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 29, 2024
Soundings, Weather Balloons, and Vapor Pressure Deficit
By Charles Blaisdell, WUWT, Aug 29, 2024
Science, Policy, and Evidence
BONNER COHEN: Inflation Reduction Act Is Taking America Down The Road To Ruin
By Bonner Cohen, Daily Caller, Aug 23, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/23/opinion-inflation-reduction-act-taking-america-down-road-ruin-bonner-cohen
Most ‘Climate Policies’ Do Not Bring Down Emissions, New Study Finds
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Aug 30, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/30/most-climate-policy-does-not-reduce-emissions-study
Link to paper: Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
By Annika Stechemesse, AAAS Science, Aug 22, 2024
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6547
Link to CO2 study: This Interactive Chart Shows Changes in the World’s Top 10 Emitters
By Johannes Friedrich, et al., World Resources Institute, March 2, 2023
https://www.wri.org/insights/interactive-chart-shows-changes-worlds-top-10-emitters
From article: China is by far the world’s leading emitter, more than doubling American emissions, while India is the world’s third-largest source and emits more than all 27 countries in the European Union put together, according to the World Resources Institute.
[SEPP Comment: Western government net zero policies make as much sense as WWI cavalry charges into entrenched, interlocking machine guns. All carnage, no gain.]
The Big Difference Between The U.S. And Venezuela Is Economic Policy
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 23, 2024
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-8-23-the-big-difference-between-the-us-and-venezuela-is-economic-policy
[SEPP Comment: Venezuela has the greatest proven oil resources in the world, but its economic policies drove out skilled technicians needed for operating its oil industry.]
Model Issues
Latest INM Climate Model Projections Triggered by Scenario Inputs
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 30, 2024
Link to: Recognizing distinctiveness of SSP3-7.0 for use in impact assessments
By Hideo Shiogama, EGU General Assembly 2024, April 14-19, 2024
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/EGU24-1711.html
[SEPP Comment: Although a less extreme scenario of future emissions is used, the Russian model produces unrealistic results because it continues to use estimates of surface-air temperatures that are inconsistent with satellite and ballon observations of atmospheric temperature trends.]
New research may lead to more accurate forecasting of active hurricane periods
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 28, 2024
Link to paper: Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis by Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves
By Rosimar Rios-Berrios, et al. AMS Monthly Weather Review, Aug 1, 2024
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-24-0052.1/MWR-D-24-0052.1.xml
Press release: The rise of MPAS
NSF NCAR’s next-generation atmospheric model garners significant community interest
By Laura Snider, NCAR, June 12, 2024
https://news.ucar.edu/132961/rise-mpas
From press release: The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) was developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR). It’s one of the tools the organization is investing in to help bridge a gap that exists between high-resolution regional weather modeling and low-resolution global climate modeling.
From article: The research team used a simulation called aquaplanet that was run on NSF NCAR’s Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), which is a next-generation computer model that can capture fine-scale weather phenomena and global-scale atmospheric patterns simultaneously.
[SEPP Comment: Sounds promising for hurricane prediction. However, can the aquaplanet modelers keep the falsified assumptions of climate modeling out to the effort?]
Roles of Earth’s Albedo Variations and Top-of-the-Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Recent Warming: New Insights from Satellite and Surface Observations
By Ned Nikolov and Karl F. Zeller, Geomatics, Aug 20, 2024
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/geomatics-04-00017-v2.pdf
[Comment by Meteorologist Chuck Weise in private communication.
The reason for these differences [between authors’ and Weise’s using the Stefan-Boltzmann law] comes from the fact that the integrals derived are only comparing changes of albedo to change in surface solar radiation as dimensionless ratios that are then multiplied by a mean Earth temperature to get an increase or decrease in temperature. That is an unphysical relationship of radiation to temperature and therefore inappropriate.]
AI-Model Collapse
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 27, 2024
As a LLM [AI-Large Language Model] is trained on its own data “the model becomes poisoned with its own projection of reality.” [Boldface in original]
Extension of the linear carbon sink model – temperature matters
By Joachim Dengler, Climate Etc., Aug 25, 2024
Link to paper: Improvements and Extension of the Linear Carbon Sink Model
By Joachim Dengler, Atmosphere, June 21, 2024
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/7/743
With recent data, where there is a strong correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature, the temperature trend dependence is balanced; therefore, we have to accept that currently the anthropogenic emissions are the main visible driver of atmospheric CO2 concentration, while temperature effectively only adds some zero-mean variability.
[SEPP Comment: Model driven conclusions that fail to consider what the models omit. A short-term correlation is not significant when compared with the weak or non-existent long-term correlation which palaeogeological data provides.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
Global Temperature updated for August 2024.
By Clive Best, His Blog, Aug 27, 2024
https://clivebest.com/blog/?p=10907
The global temperature anomaly for August was 1.27 deg.C relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. These results use GCHN monthly land temperatures combined with HadSST4 ocean temperatures.
Changing Weather
Normalized tornado losses in the US: down to the cellar
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
Link to paper: Time trends in losses from major tornadoes in the United States
By Jinhui Zhang,et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, September 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000324
#CheerfulCharts #4: Death rates from climate disasters
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
As Alex Epstein likes to say, fossil fuels didn’t make a safe climate dangerous, they made a dangerous climate safe.
From the Freezer into the Fire: Extreme Daily Temperature Change on Thursday
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 30, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/08/from-freezer-into-fire-extreme-daily.html
Changing Seas
The Atlantic Is Cooling at a Mysteriously Fast Rate After Record Warmth
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2024
We know little, but we do know that large and sudden temperature shifts have occurred in the Atlantic in the past, as seen in the AMO: [Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation image in essay.]
This latest cooling episode, along with the preceding warming one, is merely just a part of that long term pattern.
Study: Sea Levels Rose 4.7 Centimeters Per Year 8200 Years Ago – 30 Times Faster Than Modern Rates
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 26, 2024
Link to: Calibrating Holocene human–environment interactions using ancient narratives: The example of Ngurunderi in South Australia
By Patrick D. Nunn, et al. The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology, May 24, 2024
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15564894.2024.2337096
The Snow Crab Collapse: A Tale of Unproven Assumptions and Overlooked Explanations
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 24, 2024
Link to article: Snow Crab Collapse Due to Ecological Shift in the Bering Sea
By Staff, NOAA Fisheries, Aug. 21, 2024
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/snow-crab-collapse-due-ecological-shift-bering-sea
From NOAA: Arctic conditions that dominated in the preindustrial Bering Sea are expected to continue to decline over the next 1-2 decades.
From Rotter: In the end, the lesson here is one of caution: when faced with ecological mysteries, we must resist the temptation to jump to conclusions based on incomplete evidence. Instead, we should embrace the complexity of nature and strive to understand it in all its facets. Only then can we hope to develop solutions that are as nuanced and adaptive as the ecosystems we seek to protect.
[SEPP Comment: Restating NOAA: Arctic conditions dominated the Bering Sea during the Little Ice Age and are expected to decline during the current warming, regardless of industrialization.]
‘Humanity is failing’: official report warns our chance to save the Great Barrier Reef is fast closing
By Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Professor, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, The Conversation, [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-failing-official-report-warns-our-chance-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-is-fast-closing-237441
Link to: Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report, 2024
By Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Reff Authority, Australian Government, 2024
https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/handle/11017/4070
2024 opens a new chapter for the reef. Future warming already locked into the climate system means that further degradation is inevitable. This is the sobering calculus of climate change.
[SEPP Comment: More Academic/Government special pleading – cooling is no longer possible? How did corals survive during Hothouse Earth?]
Party Over for Alarmists as Sea Temperatures Plunge Around the World
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 27, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the problem of using short-term data to predict doom.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Extreme summer temperature anomalies over Greenland largely result from clear-sky radiation and circulation anomalies
By Manuel Tobias Blau, Kyung-Ja Ha & Eui-Seok Chung, Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, July 28, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01549-7
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Record Setting Crops Are Good News, Bloomberg, Thanks for Reporting It
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Aug 27, 2024
Un-Science or Non-Science?
New study shows Alaskan snow crab population collapse in Bering Sea due to climate change
By Bob Yirka, Phys.org, Aug 26, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2024-08-alaskan-crab-population-collapse-bering.html#google_vignette
Link to paper: Human-induced borealization leads to the collapse of Bering Sea snow crab
By Michael A. Litzow, et al., Nature Climate Change, Aug 21, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02093-0
[SEPP Comment: More NOAA non-science: The conclusions are based on short-term data, that is contradicted by long-term 50-year data. Overfishing may be an issue.]
What is sea level rise and why does it matter to our future?
By Daniel Dickinson, UN News, Aug 26, 2024 [H/t Thiago Maia]
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153596
The level of the sea globally is rising faster and higher than ever before, creating what the United Nations has described as an “urgent and escalating threat” to people around the world.
It is estimated that the oceans have risen by approximately 20-23 centimeters (8-9 inches) since 1880.
In 2023, the average sea level globally reached a record high the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed, according to satellite records kept since 1993.
[SEPP Comment: UN Non-science. Since 1993 is hardly never before. Sea levels are not as high as they were during the last interglacial about 120,000 years ago.]
Lowering Standards
Changing Climate
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Changing stories from NOAA.]
BBC’s Declining Polar Bears
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 30, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Result to Homewood’s complaint that what BBC declares a declining population is actually growing.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
We don’t need no stinking debate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
Actually, this summer hasn’t been hot in many places including much of the U.S., no matter how red they paint the map, to the point that AccuWeather recently wondered “When might summer weather return to the northeastern US?” But we seem to have moved from the realm of evidence-based decision-making into an alarmist nirvana where we are one with the panic on an elevated plane where the noise and annoyance of samsara can no longer reach us.
35C Iberian Heatwave On Its Way!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 30, 2024
More nonsense from the Daily Express:
Meanwhile back in the real world, the Met Office say temperatures will be “near or slightly above average”:
Claim: Trump’s Cheap Gasoline Promise would “Crash the Economy”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 25, 2024
According to the Huff Post.
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
No, New York Times, Maine Lobsters Aren’t Dwindling Due to Climate Change
By Anthony Watts and H. Sterling Burnett, WUWT, Aug 28, 2024
Telegraph Spread Fake Disease Scare
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2024
Note the presence of the midges in much colder climates in Scandinavia.
Another factor in the spread has been the ability of the virus to survive in harsh winters. This survival has nothing to do with climate change:
Shame on the Telegraph for allowing this reporter to write such garbage.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Quantum rubbish
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
Link to article: Physicists Pinpoint the Quantum Origin of the Greenhouse Effect
Carbon dioxide’s powerful heat-trapping effect has been traced to a quirk of its quantum structure. The finding may explain climate change better than any computer model.
By Joseph Howelett, Quanta Magazine, Aug 2, 2024
But if it were true, and climate models can’t “verify” anything except that they will do what their programmers tell them to, after all this time, effort and settled science, ECS is somewhere between 2 and 5 which isn’t exactly much to show for more than a century of study. If people thought my height was between three and eight feet but couldn’t be more specific you wouldn’t buy a tape measure from them, now would you?
[SEPP Comment: The article even falsely attributes to Arrhenius and CO2. Arrhenius attributed the discovery to John Tyndall who emphasized water vapor, carbon acid. Arrhenius speculated that the effect may be greater enough to stop a future glaciation and later realize it was not.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
“Storm” Lillian–Latest Met Office Fraud
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2024
Was Ist Verboten
I & I Editorial Board August 27, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The climate harm caused by refrigeration of foods?]
Scientific consensus can strengthen pro-climate attitudes in society
A new study clearly shows how important it is to emphasize consensus among climate scientists
Press Release University of Vienna, Aug 26, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/08/240826131219.htm
Link to paper: A 27-country test of communicating the scientific consensus on climate change
By Bojana Većkalov, et al., Nature Human Behavior, Aug 26, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01928-2
From Press Release: Climate scientists have long agreed that humans are largely responsible for climate change. A new study finds that communicating the scientific consensus about climate change can clear up misperceptions and strengthen beliefs about the existence and the causes of climate change. The team surveyed over 10,000 people from 27 countries on 6 continents.
[SEPP Comment: A “consensus” or opinion polls are not physical science. There is no consensus about increasing greenhouse gases causing significant warming.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Is it worth trying to sway the most staunch climate deniers?
Press Release, Boston University, Oct 30, 2021
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211030221805.htm
Link to paper: Lacuna publics: advancing a typology of disinformation-susceptible publics using the motivation-attitude-knowledge framework
By Arunima Krishna, Journal of Public Relations Research, Aug 4, 2021
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1062726X.2021.1944155
From editorial scope of the Journal: The Journal of Public Relations Research publishes research that creates, tests, or expands public relations theory. Manuscripts may include examinations of why organizations practice public relations as they do and how public relations can be conducted more effectively; analysis of public relations publics; scholarly criticism of public relations practice; and development of the history, ethics, or philosophy of public relations.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Aussie Climate Scientists: Winter Heatwaves are Bad
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 29, 2024
Lessons from Tractor Supply for How Not to Talk about Climate Change
By Eli Lehrer & Robert G. Eccles, Real Clear Energy, August 26, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/26/lessons_from_tractor_supply_for_how_not_to_talk_about_climate_change_1054028.html
A look at the white paper Tractor Supply issued to sum up its climate goal illustrates the heart of the problem. While it sets an ambitious climate goal (net zero by 2040) and commits to rigorous monitoring by complying with high accounting standards, it does nothing to show how meeting this goal will improve its financial performance.
[SEPP Comment: Since climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years, how does one talk about it except with using physical evidence?]
Questioning European Green
German Youth Have Woken Up! Green Party Loses 83% Of Its Young Voters In Thuringia!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 27, 2024
Questioning Green Elsewhere
New Zealand’s Net Zero green energy disaster is a terrible warning
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Links to Bryan Leyland’s expose.]
Green Jobs
Renewables jobs grew faster than overall energy sector in 2023: Energy Department
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 28, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4850464-renewables-jobs-grew-faster-than-overall-energy-sector-in-2023-energy-department
[SEPP Comment: Jobs go to where huge subsides are?]
Non-Green Jobs
Climate Emergency? But The Council Workers Need Paying!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2024
“Money set aside for restoring nature is to be diverted into funding wage settlements in Scotland’s local authorities.”
[SEPP Comment: Bureaucrats above all!]
The Political Games Continue
Rosebank and Jackdaw: Government to drop legal defence of UK’s largest untapped oil and gas fields
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2024
So, Labor’s promise to allow new North Sea oil projects already approved to continue now appears rather hollow!!
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Clean Energy Tax Credits Have Nothing to Do With Inflation
By Neil Auerbach, Real Clear Energy, August 27, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/27/clean_energy_tax_credits_have_nothing_to_do_with_inflation_1054507.html
[SEPP Comment: The tax credits are massive subsidies for unreliable and expensive energy that is not clean. It is a program to take from the poor to give to the rich. The author ignores the 1.9 Trillion-dollar Federal deficit for this year. The issue is not the recent past, but the future.]
Energy ‘Transition’: It’s a Federal Bribe (versus consumer demand)
By Bill Peacock, Master Resource, Aug 28, 2024
Over the last 10 years, Texas politicians and regulators have forced consumers and taxpayers to pony up on average about $5.8 billion a year as they try to incentivize new natural gas-fired generation that can come online when renewables fail. And the reliability problems caused by a reliance on renewables are responsible for California’s sky-high electricity prices
[SEPP Comment: Texas is suffering from political ignorance and arrogance concerning the reliability of wind power.]
The “Unaffordable” Winter Fuel Allowance
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Don’t subsidize those who suffer from failed subsidized policies.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA: They Are Who We Thought They Were
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Aug 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A rule-making government entity that ignores the law (and physical science)].
GAO Told You So
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Aug 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A story in the Washington Post. EPA executives ignore ethics as well as the law and physical science.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
The terrifying scale of the green revolution
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 25, 2024
“The low energy density of wind and sun means that extremely large collection devices are needed.”
Ed Miliband Lies About Energy Price Cap
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 27, 2024
When indirect renewable subsidies, such as providing standby capacity and grid balancing, are added on, the average household is paying over £500 pa for the privelege of having renewable energy.
For all of this, of course, we have Ed Miliband’s 2008 Climate Change Act to thank, the biggest act of national self-harm ever inflicted on the UK. His concern for people’s high energy bills rings rather hollow!
Miliband’s SOS
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 30, 2024
Link to article: Stark Sends Out SOS
Energy Secretary and Head of Mission Control admit they do not have a clue
By David Turver, Eigen Values, Aug 30, 2024
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/stark-sends-out-sos?utm_source=substack&publication_id=1285567&post_id=148295497&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=8t843&triedRedirect=true
Energy Issues – Australia
Cold showers coming, as largest exporter of LNG runs out of gas due to red tape and green fantasies
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 29, 2024
It takes real planning to start this far ahead and still bollix this up:
Australia was literally the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2020
Signs of Sun Setting on Renewables
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: In the race to the bottom, will Australia be first?]
Energy Issues — US
Diary of a Mad (Natural Gas Producer) man
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Aug 20, 2024
Whatever. Something will come up out of the blue to send the gas market into more spasms, and in a year gas prices will be fifty cents or twelve dollars or maybe both in one day. Don’t look behind the curtain please. We’re not well.
Power Demand Is Soaring. We Need Every Tool Available to Meet It.
By Rich Nolan, WUWT, Aug 25, 2024
Empowering Voters: Navigating Energy Choices in the Upcoming Election
By Dave Schryver, WUWT, Aug 30, 2024
Unfortunately, many recently proposed efficiency standards are based on cost-benefit analyses that project only minimal energy and consumer savings, which promotes expensive fuel switching from gas to electric appliances. American consumers deserve policy reforms that ensure future appliance energy rulings are based on transparent criteria with economically justified thresholds for significant energy savings.
The coming ‘power supply crisis’ in America
By Ronald Stein P.E. and Rafe Champion, America Out Loud News, Aug 26, 2024
There are several needs for Continuous and Uninterruptible electricity that wind and solar Cannot provide. For safety, security, and life support, here are a few that need Continuous electricity: Computers; Communications; Telemetry; Datacenters; Airports; Air Traffic control; Hospitals. [Boldface caps in original]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden administration releases plan to expand US West solar development
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Aug 29, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4854251-biden-administration-releases-plan-to-expand-us-west-solar-development
The article states: of those 31 million acres, the lands would be available for use only if they are within 15 miles of an existing or planned high-voltage transmission line or if they have been categorized as “previously disturbed,” the document states.
Biden administration protects 28M acres of Alaska public lands, reversing Trump
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 27, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4850387-biden-admin-protects-alaska-lands
The move protects the lands from activities including mining and oil and gas extraction.
[SEPP Comment: The article was not clear but asserts that part of the lands is on the Bristol Bay which is formed by the Alaska Peninsula and the mainland. What percentage of Alaska is protected lands where development is banned by Washington?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
TVA Boosts Nuclear Funding with $150M for SMR Development at Clinch River
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 22, 2024
https://www.powermag.com/tva-boosts-nuclear-funding-with-150m-for-smr-development-at-clinch-river/?oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA’s) generating fleet relies heavily on nuclear power from its three nuclear plants: Browns Ferry in Alabama, and Sequoyah and Watts Bar in Tennessee. Its nuclear plants have a combined capacity of 8.3 GW. Source: TVA
Study Quantifies Germany’s Disastrous Switch Away From Nuclear Power
By Ross Pomeroy, WUWT, Aug 29, 2024
Link to paper: What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? A comparison between the German energy policy the last 20 years and an alternative policy of investing in nuclear power
By Jan Emblemsvåg, International Journal of Sustainable Energy, June 2, 2024
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2024.2355642#abstract
From the abstract: Alternatively, Germany could have kept the existing nuclear power in 2002 and possibly invest in new nuclear capacity. The analysis of these two alternatives shows that Germany could have reached its climate gas emission target by achieving a 73% cut in emissions on top of the achievements in 2022 and simultaneously cut the spending in half compared to Energiewende.
The lash of back
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
Chumps. Imagine caring about reliable proven energy instead of betting the farm on magic beans.
Or maybe not. In Ontario they’re still into the magic beans even though Bjorn Lomborg recently Xed out a piece from the International Journal of Sustainable Energy saying, in his words (and after a snide “Climate oops”) that:
“Keeping nuclear in 2002 would have saved Germany half a trillion euro and today produced more CO₂-free power than all renewables/ Had Germany invested in more nuclear from 2002 emissions would be reduced 73% more and saved €300bn”
China prepares to change world with introduction of revolutionary nuclear power station: ‘This design significantly reduces the chances of meltdowns’
It’s part of an effort that ramps up through 2035, when China plans to have 150 advanced reactors.
By Rick Kazmer, The Cool Down (TCD), Aug 26, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Offshore Trojan Horses
By Gordon Hughes, Real Clear Energy, August 29, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/08/29/offshore_trojan_horses_1055019.html
Rather less emphasis was given to the fact that New York will pay an average price of over $150 per MWh (megawatt hour) for the electricity generated by Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind.That’s more than four times the average wholesale price of electricity in New York during 2023–24, $36 per MWh.
Industrial wind plants afflict 3,000 times as much of the surface of Earth as a nuclear plant does
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 24, 2024
Link to: The terrifying scale of the green revolution
By John Constable, The Spectator, Aug 21, 2024
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-terrifying-scale-of-the-green-revolution
Why Is Cheap Wind Power So Expensive?
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Aug 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The Washington way: lavish promises, pathetic results.]
Maine’s mysterious floating wind research
By David Wojick, CFACT, Aug 27, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/08/27/maines-mysterious-floating-wind-research
Looming ‘clean’ energy disasters off our coasts
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Aug 25, 2024
One broken wind turbine blade shut down Massachusetts beaches. What would hurricanes do?
[SEPP Comment: And the blade broke without a major storm.]
On the levelised cost of energy of solar photovoltaics
By Jan Emblemsvåg, International Journal of Sustainable Energy, Dec 30, 2020
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2020.1867139
The lowest Levelized Cost of Energy occurs when the system is designed for continuous operation, as opposed to peak shaving, with 80% of its solution space found between 203 USD/MWh to 252 USD/MWh and an expected value of 226 USD/MWh. This is almost 3 times higher than a narrowly defined Levelized Cost of Energy, which ignores opportunity costs.
The latest old thing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
In assessing the supposed dynamic possibilities of new energy sources we’d like to mention that wind is not “new” as many assert including, for instance, the Hill Times piece we cited last week that spoke of “the amount of energy humanity must replace with new sources (e.g. wind, solar).”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Fuel Cells: What They Are, How They Work, and Why They’re Important
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag. Aug 5, 2024
https://www.powermag.com/fuel-cells-what-they-are-how-they-work-and-why-theyre-important/?oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Yet More Reasons Why Green Hydrogen Is Going Nowhere
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 27, 2024
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-8-26-yet-more-reasons-why-green-hydrogen-is-going-nowhere
Link to paper: A review of challenges with using the natural gas system for hydrogen
By Paul Martin, et al., Energy Science & Engineering, Aug 18, 2024
https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.1861
From Menton: Mr. Martin then identifies several of his co-authors on the paper as a “team of people at the Environmental Defense Fund.” [(EDF)] That information may well color your perception of what Martin, et al., have to say in their paper.
Perhaps the most valuable part of the article is the EDF revealing that it stands ready to oppose the buildout of hydrogen infrastructure just as vigorously as it opposes any natural gas infrastructure. Even if zero-emissions electricity were important and hydrogen were a good solution to get there, EDF would be ready with a litigation barrage to block it.
[SEPP Comment: The green crocodile will eat all sources of reliable and affordable energy, regardless of order.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Solid State of Affairs
Breakthrough batteries are just around the corner. Again.
By Doomberg, Blog, Aug 19, 2024
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/solid-state-of-affairs?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=147752944&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Certain fields of science are especially susceptible to such shenanigans, including the pursuit of room-temperature superconductors, the drive to cure cancer, and the development of batteries that will free society from fossil fuels.
The technique of using the magic phrase “as soon as [Year N + 3]” is surely more tried-and-tested than the batteries being described, but the resurrection of the solid-state dream does serve one useful purpose: it gives us cause to scan the electric vehicle sector for a level-headed assessment of the current state of battery development. Let’s embark on one of our own.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Carmakers Should Have Unplugged from EVs Long Ago
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Aug 28, 2024
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/ford-petroleum-volkswagen/2024/08/28/id/1178190
All about EV
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 28, 2024
As Carson Jerema put it irritably in the National Post:
“Canada isn’t a country, so much as an elaborate program for distributing public money to a handful of manufacturing companies in southern Ontario. It doesn’t matter if the government in Ottawa is Liberal or Conservative. And it doesn’t matter if whatever is being manufactured is something people want to buy. The existence of industries in other parts of the country, such as oil and gas in Alberta, that thrive largely without subsidies only seems to reinforce Ottawa’s need to coddle Central Canada. The farce that has become the electric vehicle industry, with more than $40 billion in Canadian subsidies and tax breaks, is, perhaps, the greatest example of this grift.”
Lex Autolease profits fall by £400m | Used EVs blamed for reduction
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2024
This problem will only get worse as EV sales increase and manufacturers are forced to cut new car prices to the bone to meet EV targets:
Electric car boss quits after sales plunge 40pc
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 29, 2024
The chief executive and founder of European Tesla rival Polestar has quit after seven years at the helm. [Polestar is controlled by Volvo and China’s Geely]
California Dreaming
The Numbers Behind CARB’s Goal of “Net Zero” [California Air Resources Board]
By Edward Ring, What’s Current? Accessed Aug 28, 2024
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859040?e=cd9fa89d1e
Californians today consume roughly 7,000 TBTUs of raw energy inputs per year. That acronym stands for “trillion British Thermal Units.” This variable is often used when measuring and reporting large amounts of energy such as produced or consumed by states or nations. For example, the entire world uses around 600,000 TBTUs per year; the United States uses not quite 100 TBTUs per year. That’s how much energy goes into the system. How much of that energy actually turns into useful services?
Carbon accounting is an obfuscating waste of resources. It redirects private investment and public subsidies away from producers of TBTUs and gigawatt-hours, and instead enriches consultants, accountants, academics, activists, and bureaucrats.
Newsom Blames Oil Companies for Gas Prices, His Own Energy Czar Disagrees
By Kenneth Schrupp, Environment & Climate News, Aug 21, 2024
California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a video blaming oil companies’ “greed” and “price gouging” for the state’s gas prices, which, at an average of $4.60 per gallon, are $1.16 above the national average.
State Sen. Kelly Seyarto, R-Murieta, noted there’s little incentive for companies to build gasoline refineries in a state that is seeking to eliminate gasoline demand.
Bay Watch
Northern California is an energy catastrophe waiting to happen.
By Doomberg, Aug 30, 2024
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/bay-watch?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=148236329&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Through a combination of regulatory browbeating, relentless taxation, and outright lawfare, California has successfully transformed itself from a global energy superpower to a flaccid energy vassal, highly dependent on foreign and domestic neighbors to keep the lights on and motor vehicles moving.
Gasoline Prices: California Investigates Itself
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Aug 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Can the California Energy Commission produce an honest assessment: why does oil company “price gouging” stops at the state borders?]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Pediatrics For Hypocrites: AAP Slams Glyphosate, Endorses ‘Gender-Affirming’ Care for Kids
By Cameron English, ACSH, Aug 22, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/08/22/pediatrics-hypocrites-aap-slams-glyphosate-endorses-gender-affirming-care-kids
The American Academy of Pediatrics warns that pesticides are endocrine-disrupting chemicals that harm children [No hard evidence]. Absurdly, AAP also endorses the use of puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones — treatments designed to disrupt a child’s endocrine system. It’s the latest example of a major science institution promoting harmful, hypocritical nonsense.
In other words, AAP endorses the use of experimental endocrine-disrupting chemicals in children if it serves a politically fashionable purpose. Yet AAP warns parents and pediatricians that a thoroughly tested and tightly regulated weedkiller poses a risk to kids because it‘s—an endocrine disruptor.
Record number of Americans killed by heat in 2023: Research
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 26, 2024
https://thehill.com/homenews/4847986-extreme-heat-deaths-2023
Link to paper: Trends of Heat-Related Deaths in the US, 1999-2023
Jeffrey T. Howard, et al., Jama Network, Aug 26, 2024
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2822854?guestAccessKey=53b50a89-0945-4117-a662-5e1e1484ebce&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=082624#google_vignette
Opening sentence: The warmest average temperature recorded since 1850 occurred in 2023.
[SEPP Comment: The study ignores the 1930s which was hotter in the US with little air conditioning.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
China Poised To Cut Off US Military From Key Mineral As America’s Own Reserves Lay Buried Under Red Tape
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Agu 25, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/25/china-restricts-antimony-idaho-reserves-permitting-red-tape
The Chinese government announced on August 15 that it will restrict exports of antimony, a critical mineral that dominates the production of weapons globally and is essential for producing equipment like munitions, night vision goggles and bullets that are essential to national security, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Seine Olympic Swim Was a Predictable S### Show
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Aug 21, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/08/21/seine-olympic-swim-was-predictable-s-show-48946
Breaking news from MedPage Today. Hot off the pot and ready to trot!
A mind-boggling 10 percent of the masochists swimmers who participated in the ill-advised- Olympic open water swimming event, aka, the “Biowarfare Affair of Intestinal Despair,” came down with gastroenteritis (vomiting and diarrhea).
In the 100 years since swimming in the Seine has been illegal, it’s hard to believe that the French could ‘clean it up’ in time for the Olympics. Despite some attempts, water quality remained a concern throughout the games, leading to delays and cancellations before and during the events.
Yet, Olympic athletes were required to swim in this mess for two hours – the average time to complete the event – while Parisians won’t even dip a toe in it.
German State Media makes a game where players shoot down flying climate deniers
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 26, 2024
If anyone made a game shooting lasers at parasitic flying climate believers they would be arrested for hate-speech. But if a government agency promotes a game that dehumanizes, mocks and kills critics of the government “Green program”, they’ll probably get another grant.
Nobel Prize Winning Forecast
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: At least Al Gore did not get the prize for physics, but the peace prize which has had a number of questionable recipients such as Yasser Arafat who co-founded the terrorist group Fatah.]
Scientists propose guidelines for solar geoengineering research
New paper focuses on feasibility and impacts of Earth-cooling stratospheric aerosol injection
Press Release, National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Aug 23, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/08/240823141604.htm
Link to: Research criteria towards an interdisciplinary Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention assessment
By Simone Tilmes, et al., Oxford Open Climate Change, June 29, 2024
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae010/7701783
[SEPP Comment: Just say No! Unfortunately, NCARF/UCAR departed from the world of physical science to the world of speculation long ago.]
The oceans are overflowing, give us a trillion, says UN witchdoctor Guterres
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 30, 2024
ARTICLES
1. U.N. Casts Little Light on Heat
The international body’s latest climate-change alarms are more about demagoguery than data.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Aug. 29, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/united-nations-cast-little-light-on-heat-climate-change-false-alarm-4cf88a8e?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
The president of the Copenhagen Consensus begins with:
“The reason you’ve heard a lot about extreme heat deaths this summer has more to do with demagoguery than data. Alongside the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres’s ‘call to action’ on the topic in late July, mandarins across U.N. organizations have issued warnings that are heavy on emotion and light on facts.
In early August, the World Health Organization trumpeted a disturbing figure: In Europe alone, more than 175,000 people die each year because of extreme heat. That was an about fourfold exaggeration. When called out, the organization quietly edited its online publication to remove the word ‘extreme’ from the statement’s title, a concession that these deaths aren’t, as the WHO suggested, the result of a cataclysmic shift in temperatures.
Unfortunately, the media had already spread the WHO’s original, mistaken claim far and wide. Moreover, the edited version left out other important context: While seasonal rises in temperature that have been the norm for decades do kill people, it’s a far smaller toll than that taken by cold. In Europe, cold kills nearly four times as many people as heat—a danger that a warming climate helps ameliorate.
Unicef—the U.N.’s dedicated child-welfare organization—also rang a false alarm in late July. It published a policy brief claiming that about 377 young people died in 2021 from high temperatures across Europe and Central Asia. Unicef didn’t mention that the data source it cites—’Global Burden of Disease’ statistics from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation—shows annual heat deaths of young people have declined by more than 50% over three decades, or that cold causes about three times as many child deaths in these regions each year.
The brief also neglected to mention that heat is one of the least significant causes of death for young people. Malnutrition claims 26,000 young lives across Europe and Central Asia every year. In a world of limited resources, you’d think that would be Unicef’s priority.
The overwrought tone of the WHO and Unicef claims matched Mr. Guterres’s alarmism. In his call to action, he emphasized that heat deaths of old people globally have increased 85% over the past 22 years. He left out that almost all of this increase is because old people are 80% more numerous.
Mr. Guterres declared that ‘extreme heat is increasingly tearing through economies, widening inequalities, undermining the Sustainable Development Goals and killing people.’ He claimed there has been ‘a rapid rise in the scale, intensity, frequency and duration of extreme-heat events.’
This is misleading to say the least. A landmark 2024 study on extreme heat and its effects on mortality revealed that over the past 30 years the annual global average of days with heat waves has increased from 13.4 to 13.7—hardly a rapid rise. While Mr. Guterres blames climate change for extreme heat deaths, this makes clear that high temperatures are mostly a result of seasonal changes that have long existed. Only perhaps a third of a day of yearly heat waves is likely attributable to climate change over the past three decades.”
Lomborg make more statements of false claims from Mr. Guterres, then concludes with:
“Falsely attributing heat deaths to global warming is likely to lead to more heat deaths. The recent decline in heat mortality is largely thanks to greater access to electricity and therefore to air conditioning. The best policy to avoid extreme heat deaths—or cold deaths for that matter—is to ensure that more people can afford technology to control the temperature in their homes. That necessitates economic growth and cheap, reliable energy.
The WHO’s four-step guide on how to avoid the dangers of extreme heat suggests that people rely on ‘blinds or shutters’ and ‘night air.’ The closest it comes to mentioning air conditioning is its recommendation to cool off by spending a few hours in the supermarket.
Mr. Guterres is pushing policies that would jack up energy prices and undercut economic growth. He insists the world’s ‘disease’ is an ‘addiction to fossil fuels’ and demands that governments keep the average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. That would cost quadrillions of dollars, spike electricity costs, and spread poverty.
All this raises the question whether Mr. Guterres and his cohort are more interested in stopping heat deaths or ginning up support for climate activism. At the very least, they should get their numbers right.”
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