The Week That Was: 2025 01-25 (January 25, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: ““Laws are made for men of ordinary understanding and should, therefore, be construed by the ordinary rules of common sense. Their meaning is not to be sought for in metaphysical subtleties which may make anything mean everything or nothing at pleasure.”—Thomas Jefferson (1823)
Number of the Week: “California sea levels to rise 5-plus feet this century, study says.”
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week begins with a 2021 presentation by AMO physicist William Happer who presents our understanding of the greenhouse effect and its role in climate. It then discusses the Trump administration’s reopening of the Endangerment Finding and withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Briefly discussed are the Trump administration’s ban on wind power on the outer continental shelf, and Victor Davis Hanson’s article on the failing of California governments to protect the public. Patrick Brown’s discussion of the dangers of false attribution studies is presented as well as the importance of the Supreme Court limiting the Chevron Deference.
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What Physical Evidence? Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist William Happer has a strong, lengthy post in WUWT that goes to the central issue of understanding the greenhouse effect and why greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, are not causing dangerous warming. In it Happer discusses the frenzy over climate and concludes the paragraph with:
“Those who think that way, in many cases, mean very well. But they have been misled. As a scientist who actually knows a lot about climate (and I set up many of our climate research centers when I was at the Department of Energy in the early 1990s) I can assure you that there is no climate emergency. There will not be a climate emergency. … Policies to address this phony climate emergency will cause great damage to American citizens and to their environment.”
Happer illustrates that the press is deceitful when it uses photos from polluted Asian cities as examples of greenhouse gas pollution. The main greenhouse gas, water vapor, causes clouds; others such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane are invisible, thus do not photograph well.
Happer explains the atmospheric circulation that transport heat from the equator to the poles. Ocean circulations also do the same. It is important to realize that this convection is far more important in transferring heat from the surface to the lower atmosphere than radiation. Radiation and greenhouse gas delaying radiation to space does not become important until about 10 km or so (33,000 feet) in mid-latitudes. [Higher elevation in the tropics and lower in the polar regions. At these altitudes, there is little water vapor remaining.]
[TWTW comment: That Earth’s primary method of transporting heat from the surface to the middle atmosphere is convection illustrates the folly of the IPCC and its collaborators using surface-air temperatures. These are measured by instruments a few feet above the surface yet are used to claim that increasing temperatures are caused by increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere, particularly above the mid-latitudes, not a few feet above the surface.]
Happer then goes through what is known about the influence of greenhouse gases blocking, delaying, the transfer of radiant energy through the atmosphere. Except for clouds, atmospheric gases block little radiation in the visible wavelengths, but block radiation in the infrared wavelengths, which are not visible to humans. By far, water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide is secondary and decidedly minor. Happer illustrates that each primary greenhouse gas prevents certain wavelengths from freely escaping to space. He adds that:
“This keeps Earth’s surface temperature warmer than it would be (by about 20 or 30 degrees). [C or about 35 to 55°F] The Earth would be an ice cube if it were not for water vapor and CO2; and when I say water vapor, you should understand that I really mean water vapor and clouds, the condensed form of water. Clouds are at least as important as greenhouse gases, and they are very poorly understood to this day.” [Boldface added.]
Happer points out the important work of John Tyndall, who named greenhouse gases.
He discusses the work of Max Planck, who discovered quantum mechanics.
“Amazingly, quantum mechanics got its start from greenhouse gas-physics and thermal radiation, just what we are talking about today. Most climate fanatics do not understand the basic physics. But Planck understood it very well and he was the first to show why the spectrum of radiation from warm bodies has” [a particular shape.]
[TWTW comment: The Stefan-Boltzmann law (mid-1800s) tells us that the radiative power per unit area of a body is proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature. The so-called blackbody curve showing how much radiative power there is at each wavelength was carefully measured by the late 1890s. In 1900, Max Planck derived the equation for the blackbody curve and showed that the Stefan-Boltzmann constant was calculable from fundamental physical constants.]
Happer states:
“In fact, you never observe the Planck curve if you look down from a satellite. We have lots of satellite measurements now. What you see is something that looks a lot like the black curve, with lots of jags and wiggles in it. That curve was first calculated by Karl Schwarzschild…. Schwarzschild was the theorist who first figured out how the real Earth, including the greenhouse gases in its atmosphere, radiates to space.”
Happer discusses that the difference between the Planck curve and the Schwarzschild curve is the greenhouse effect. He then discusses how little the difference is increased if you double CO2 from today’s concentrations. He then states:
“The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference. Doubling would replace the black curve by the red curve. On the basis of this, we are supposed to give up our liberties. We are supposed to give up the gasoline engines of our automobiles. … Do not let anyone convince you that that is a good bargain. It is a terrible bargain. The doubling actually does make a little difference. It decreases the radiation to space by about three watts per square meters. In comparison, the total radiation to space is about 300 watts per square meter. So, it is a one percent effect—it is actually a little less than that, because that is with no clouds. Clouds make everything even less threatening.” [Boldface added]
Happer discusses what is meant by greenhouse gas saturation:
“Saturation is a jargon term that means CO2 has done all the greenhouse warming it can easily do. Doubling CO2 does not make much difference. You could triple or quadruple CO2 concentrations, and it also would make little difference. The CO2 effects are strongly saturated.”
Happer then continues by illustrating the big differences between global climate model forecasts and observations. [TWTW comment: Simply, nature disagrees with the model, therefore they are wrong.] Happer then states:
“The alleged harm from CO2 is from warming, and the warming observed is much, much less than predictions. In fact, warming as small as we are observing is almost certainly beneficial. It gives slightly longer growing seasons. You can ripen crops a little bit further north than you could before. So, there is completely good news in terms of the temperature directly. But there is even better news. By standards of geological history, plants have been living in a CO2 famine during our current geological period.”
He then discusses global greening from increasing CO2 and why it is occurring by discussing the leaves of different types of plants. He emphasizes the importance of rubisco:
“There is a second important issue. The enzyme I mentioned, rubisco, is very ancient. It was probably invented, on the evolutionary scale, three and a half billion years ago. At that time, there was little oxygen in the air. So, rubisco was designed in a way that lets it be poisoned by oxygen. Plants today have a hard time when there is not enough CO2 in the air. When rubisco is charged with chemical energy to make sugar, but it cannot find a CO2 molecule, it grabs an oxygen molecule, O2, instead. It uses the oxygen to create hydrogen peroxide and other nasty oxidizing molecules. One reason for the antioxidants in your tea is to mitigate this problem. This mistaken use of an O2 molecule rather than a CO2 molecule is called photorespiration. Suppression of photorespiration is one reason plants grow better with more CO2. There is a special type of plant called C4 plant, which includes American corn and sugar cane, that has partially solved this problem. But as the CO2 levels increase, the old-fashioned C3 plants, without all the biochemical machinery to cope with photorespiration, out-compete C4 plants.”
Happer asserts that polls of scientists are meaningless in science. He illustrates this assertion with a discussion of the theory of continental drift. The theory was ridiculed by geologists After the death of its proponent, the US declassified WWII data on the North Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly data demonstrated the theory to be correct Happer concludes with:
“So, the takeaway message is that policies that slow CO2 emissions are based on flawed computer models which exaggerate warming by factors of two or three, probably more. That is message number one. So, why do we give up our freedoms, why do we give up our automobiles, why do we give up a beefsteak because of this model that does not work?
Takeaway message number two is that if you really look into it, more CO2 actually benefits the world. So, why are we demonizing this beneficial molecule that is making plants grow better, that is giving us slightly less harsh winters, a slightly longer growing season? Why is that a pollutant? It is not a pollutant at all, and we should have the courage to do nothing about CO2 emissions. Nothing needs to be done.” [Boldface added]
During the Question-and-Answer period Happer stated:
“When I was having lunch with someone recently, they asked what is interesting in basic science, and one of the more interesting things is speculations that solar activity is beginning to decrease. If you look at sunspot activity, it is definitely less the last few years, and we have had these rather cold winters the last few years. One of the possible drivers of climate is solar activity. So, is there really going to be a cooling period? We had a cooling period for example in the 1970s. I remember then reading about the coming ice age in Newsweek and Time. Then they flipped immediately, about 10 years later. In physics, we have a joke which says that the hardest thing about a theory is getting the sign right. That has been true of climate for a long time. Anyway, it could cool in another 10 or 15 years. I do not have a strong opinion on that one way or the other.”
In answer to another question Happer commented:
“Absolutely, the reason the models get these huge numbers—and mine [a 1980s model] had the same flaw—is because of the water vapor feedback. I think the reason those feedbacks are overestimated is that they do not treat clouds correctly. I have worked personally on this, so I know a lot about it. You cannot increase water vapor without affecting clouds, and a change of just a few percent in cloudiness completely overwhelms any change from CO2 or water vapor. We are all familiar with the fact that if it is a hot summer day and a cloud comes over, it cools down. And, if you take that on a global scale, it turns out that there is exquisite sensitivity to cloudiness.
Just to follow up on another allusion you made, if there really were this positive feedback, the Earth’s climate could not be as stable as the geological record indicates. The temperature would be shooting up and down, up and down, all of the time; for example, because of changes in solar output to which I alluded. But that is not observed. The Earth’s climate turns out to be remarkably stable. If there are feedbacks, they may well be negative feedbacks, and they probably involve clouds.” [Boldface added:]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Endangerment Finding: Probably the most disgraceful example of bureaucratic hubris this century is EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor are pollutants. Both gases are essential for life on Earth. Without water vapor, nights would be too cold to support growing plant life. As Happer states above water vapor “keeps Earth’s surface temperature warmer than it would be (by about 20 or 30 degrees) [°C or about 35 to 55°F.]
The Endangerment Finding had no compelling physical evidence. It is based on projections from global climate models which overstate the actual warming of the atmosphere by two to three times. Further, the models are based upon surface-air temperature measurements, not on atmospheric temperature measurements. It is in the atmosphere that the greenhouse effect occurs. Further, as the CO2 Coalition advocates, carbon dioxide is essential for all complex life on Earth. As Happer discusses above, it is key for creating carbohydrates, sugars, which allows all plants to grow and are the food source for animal life as well.
As John Tyndall in England wrote in 1875 (quoted from Happer) water vapor is an:
“Aqueous vapor is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.”
In its hubris, the EPA ignores this and similar work to deliver the Endangerment Finding.
Fortunately, the Trump administration has already opened the Endangerment Finding to questioning. As Francis Menton, an attorney who was involved in appealing the Endangerment Finding writes:
“The first couple of days of the new Trump administration have seen the President sign a blizzard of Executive Orders. These provide more material than a humble solo blogger like me can ever comment on comprehensively. So, I’ll just have to start with one particular item that I am deeply familiar with: the EPA’s so-called Endangerment Finding of December 2009.
I have seen differing counts of the number of Trump’s first-day EOs. ABC News here counts 42. One of the most consequential has the title “Unleashing American Energy.” There is a large amount of important material in this EO. In overall summary, it directs the reversal of all of the Biden administration efforts to restrict and suppress the production and development of America’s energy resources. But one provision, I would argue, is important above all the rest. That is Section 6(f), which directs a reconsideration of the so-called Endangerment Finding (EF) of December 2009. That provision of the EO reads as follows:
(f) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Administrator of the EPA, in collaboration with the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall submit joint recommendations to the Director of OMB on the legality and continuing applicability of the Administrator’s findings, “Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act,” Final Rule, 74 FR 66496 (December 15, 2009).
This provision is of overriding importance because, as long as the Endangerment Finding remains on the books, it gives a license to the courts, and to activist left-wing judges anywhere in the federal system, to enjoin and undo all the other de-regulatory efforts of this and other energy-related EOs. However, if the EF is rescinded with a well-reasoned and well-supported basis, then all the other energy-related initiatives will have a far clearer path to success.”
Menton gives a solid account of the background of the Endangerment Finding to which TWTW would add that SEPP was a party to the appeal in conjunction with CEI. It was based on limited knowledge shortly after the finding was announced. In addition to the damage that the Endangerment Finding would do, the eventual thrust of the appeal was our model vs. your model. This was turned down by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Menton was involved in a second appeal starting in 2017 that was turned down by the Supreme Court. Today, differences between the role of CO2 for human welfare, and the claim that CO2 is a pollutant are more glaring. They can be stated as our physical evidence vs. your speculation from models that are wrong.
Of course, huge, vested interests will object to the Trump administration using physical evidence to overturn the Endangerment Finding. According to an article in the Hill, “4 major climate, energy moves included in Trump’s Day 1 executive orders”, Michael Gerrard, the founder of Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law said:
“that if the administration is successful in overturning the endangerment finding, it would be ‘devastating’ because ‘it’s the basis for almost all of EPA’s actions on climate change.’”
We shall see what develops over the next 30 days or so. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Science, Policy, and Evidence
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Paris Agreement: As expected, the Trump administration immediately withdrew from the Paris Agreement, which the Obama administration entered initially, making sure it was not a treaty which requires approval of the Senate, which Obama knew he would not get. According to the rules of the senate on treaties:
“The United States Constitution provides that the president ‘shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur’ (Article II, section 2). Treaties are binding agreements between nations and become part of international law. Treaties to which the United States is a party also have the force of federal legislation, forming part of what the Constitution calls ”the supreme Law of the Land.”
The Senate does not ratify treaties. Following consideration by the Committee on Foreign Relations, the Senate either approves or rejects a resolution of ratification. If the resolution passes, then ratification takes place when the instruments of ratification are formally exchanged between the United States and the foreign power(s).”
The Senate has considered and approved for ratification all, but a small number of treaties negotiated by the president and his representatives. In some cases, when Senate leadership believed a treaty lacked sufficient support for approval, the Senate simply did not vote on the treaty, and it was eventually withdrawn by the president. Since pending treaties are not required to be resubmitted at the beginning of each new Congress, they may remain under consideration by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for an extended period of time.
In recent decades, presidents have frequently entered the United States into international agreements without the advice and consent of the Senate. These are called ‘executive agreements.’ Though not brought before the Senate for approval, executive agreements are still binding on the parties under international law.”
Amusingly, Michael Bloomberg announced his charity will cover any funds the UN loses when the US withdraws from the agreement. It is doubtful his charity will cover the hundreds of billions the proponents of the agreement were hoping to get. To fully extract the US from this folly, the administration should submit the agreement to the Senate for the ratification process with a time limitation whereby the treaty is ratified or rejected.
See links under After Paris and https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm
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Battle of the Bans: The outgoing Biden administration used questionable wording in the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) which established Federal authority of the submerged lands lying beyond a state’s coastal waters to ban future drilling for gas and oil for most US waters. The Trump administration used the same act to ban wind turbines in US waters. This has set up what TWTW calls the Battle of the Bans to see which ban perseveres if either. See links under Energy Issues – US and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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California Extensions: Victor Davis Hansen has another penetrating criticism of the political leadership of California subordinating their principle duty of protecting public safety to other “feel good” goals claimed to reflect “humanism.” There is nothing humane about political leaders ignoring their primary responsibilities of public safety. These failing California political leadership goals extend beyond California. Many state and local jurisdictions have followed California’s failing leadership. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
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Attribution Studies: John Robson links to an article by Patrick Brown who exposes the dangers of weather attribution studies that attribute extreme weather events to increasing carbon dioxide. Generally, these studies lack any physical evidence or theoretical basis for such claims. Brown writes:
“Weather and climate extremes—such as high temperatures, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, and severe thunderstorms—have always threatened both human and natural systems. Given their significant impacts, there is considerable interest in how human-caused climate change influences these extremes. This is the focus of the relatively new discipline of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA).”
In the conclusion Brown states:
“These EEA studies also carry practical legal and policy implications as they frequently relate to assessed monetary damages from extreme events which means they can be used to bolster support for more stringent greenhouse gas emissions reductions via their inclusion in the calculation of the social cost of carbon. EEA studies are also frequently discussed in the context of the Loss and Damage Mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which would mean they could be used to justify climate reparations payments across borders.
Finally, as alluded to above, EEA studies can potentially be used in direct legal actions against entities such as fossil fuel companies.”
The “Hydroclimate Whiplash” study discussed by Jim Steele is one example. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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The Chevron Deference: In “The Battle to Define Unreasonable Risk” Susan Goldhaber writes:
A significant new factor is the recent Chevron decision by the Supreme Court limiting the deference to Agencies in areas of statutory ambiguity. In practice, this may be a limiting factor in an Administration’s total reversal of the previous Administration’s rules. Because with deference no longer given to the Agencies, an Administration may make much narrower and more targeted changes, recognizing that the Courts will no longer provide them with automatic deference.
This is an important step towards moderating bureaucratic hubris as seen in EPA’s Endangerment Finding. See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: “California sea levels to rise 5-plus feet this century, study says.” In his essay on Margin of Error, James Agresti states (citation omitted):
That sounds pretty scary, but the study has margins of error, and it actually predicts a sea-level rise of 17 to 66 inches. In the body of the article, the reporter walks back the headline a little, but he fails to provide even a hint that the ‘5-plus-feet’ is the upper bound of an estimate that extends all the way down to a quarter of this.
In Happer’s presentation discussed above when asked a question about sea level rise, Happer responded:
“As for the sea level, sea levels started to rise around 1800, at the end of the Little Ice Age, and they have been rising steadily at about two millimeters per year. Two millimeters is not very much—you can barely see it. That is maybe nine inches a century. If you go to the seashore, the typical rise and fall of the tide is quite a bit more than nine inches.”
Obviously, Happer will not get any headlines in newspapers with such an estimate based on long-term measurements.
Censorship
The scourge of prosocial censorship
By John Ridgway, Climate Etc., Jan 22, 2025
[SEPP Comment: One meaning of prosocial censorship is censoring ideas or findings on the fear that they could have harmful impacts, particularly on small groups. Censorship of physical evidence for whatever reason is contrary to scientific integrity.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
How to Think about Climate Change
By William Happer, WUWT, Jan 24, 2025
Link to presentation: How to Think about Climate Change
By William Happer, Independent Institute, March 11, 2021, Presentation on Feb 19, 2021
https://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=13458
The Saturation effect questions the prevailing narrative on CO2
By Collister Johnson, CFACT, Jan 15, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/01/15/the-saturation-effect-questions-the-prevailing-narrative-on-co2/#
The Endangerment Finding: It Looks Like Trump 2.0 Will Be Much More Fun Than Trump 1.0
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 22, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-1-22-the-endangerment-finding-it-looks-like-trump-20-will-be-much-more-fun-than-trump-10
Greenhouse Efficiency Insights
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 22, 2025
Using the CERES satellite data, it is shown that over the last ~ quarter century, the increase in greenhouse gases has had no detectable effect on the global average surface temperature.
Woke DEI + Green Nihilism = Dresden in California
California’s DEI “humanism” and Green New Deal environmentalism ensured the cruelest imaginable treatment of thousands of people and unrivaled destruction of the natural ecosystem.
By Victor Davis Hanson, American Greatness, Jan 13, 2025 [H/t Bill Balgord]
No one has really taken charge yet. And now even the woke culprits for the catastrophe are blame-gaming each other to determine who was the more incompetent, which in this case translates to the most woke.
Selection bias drives extreme weather attribution studies
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
Link to: Do Climate Attribution Studies Tell the Full Story?
How a cascade of selection effects bias the collective output of extreme event attribution studies.
By Patrick Brown, Breakthrough Institute, Jan 8, 2025
https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/do-climate-attribution-studies-tell
Alarmist Scientist Daniel Swain Demonizes “Natural Climate Variability” calling it “Hydroclimate Whiplash”!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 21, 2025
Swain sadly ignores these major drivers of natural wetness-dryness variability, preferring to blame global warming. Thus, Swain and his fellow climate alarmists fail to educate the public about the known reasons for natural wetness-dryness variability.
More Cold Truth About Global Warming
By I & I Editorial Board, Jan 20, 2025
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Wildfires: what does the evidence say?
Editorial, The Lancet, Jan 25, 2025
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00136-9/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email
Link to paper: Global, regional, and national mortality burden attributable to air pollution from landscape fires: a health impact assessment study
By Rongbin Xu, et al., The Lancet, Dec 14, 2024
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)02251-7/abstract
From paper, Methods: We calculated country-specific population-weighted average daily and annual LFS fine particulate matter (PM2·5) and surface ozone (O3) during 2000–19 from a validated dataset. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: How was the database for deaths from PM2.5 validated?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Giving Meaning to Life
By James Allan, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 17, 2025
New Study: Globally, 30% Of Modern Forests Have Not Warmed…50% Of Treelines Have Not Advanced
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 20, 2025
Link to paper: Dynamic treeline and cryosphere response to pronounced mid-Holocene climatic variability in the US Rocky Mountains
By Gregory T. Pederson, et al., PNAS, Dec 30, 2024
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2412162121
Weather Rant by Professor Art Horn, Meteorologist AMS
By Art Horn, ICECAP, Jan 20, 2025
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/weather_rant_by_professor_art_horn_meteorologist_ams/
Of course, predicably the media outlets are blaming climate change for the fires. But wildfires have always been part of nature’s balance between too much forest and too little. The “culling of the herd”, in this case old or weak trees, has historically been in part accomplished with what are called wildfires.
One of the most spectacular examples of this phenomena occurred on May 19th, 1780, during the revolutionary war. General George Washington noted in his diary that on that day darkness enveloped the sky. It was so dark during the morning that candles were lit to see their way about. People left their jobs and school children were sent home. Some prayed while others cried or went to taverns. Washington noted that the darkness varied and that the sun came out in the afternoon, perhaps indicating that it was entirely hidden by the smoke in the morning.
#LookItUp: US precipitation data
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
To hear the blame-the-fires-on-climate-change crowd, LA has been getting drier and drier for decades due to greenhouse gases and that’s why the place burned down. Alas, the data say the opposite.
Energy & Environmental Review: January 21, 2025
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Jan 21, 2025
After Paris!
Trump signs order withdrawing from Paris Agreement
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 20, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5096828-trump-withdraws-us-paris-climate
Bloomberg charity to cover UN funds revoked with Paris Agreement withdrawal
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 23, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5103697-bloomberg-philanthropies-paris-climate-agreement-withdrawal
UN regrets US exit from global cooperation on health, climate change agreement
By Staff, UN News, Jan 21, 2025 [H/t Tony Heller]
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159211
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Percent dry weight biomass increase for Yellow Birch under enhanced CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
From the CO2science archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Federal Reserve Withdraws From Global Climate Group as Trump Set to Assume Office
Five Federal Reserve officials, including chair Jerome Powell, voted for the withdrawal, while two officials did not vote.
By Naveen Athrappully, The Epoch Times, Updated Jan 19, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/federal-reserve-withdraws-from-global-climate-group-as-trump-set-to-assume-power-5794554?utm_source=RTNews&src_src=RTNews&utm_campaign=rtbreaking-2025-01-18-1&src_cmp=rtbreaking-2025-01-18-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=digital&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY%2B8gfwEs0MDA47xAvWpUyKDc724qoB4H4MMrPANDaQ%3D%3D
Link to paper: Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes
By Daniel Katz and Stephen Miran, Manhattan Institute, March 2024
The Fed’s focus on climate has come under criticism from Stephen Miran [one of the authors of the report], who has been nominated to chair the Council of Economic Advisers in the Trump administration.
[SEPP Comment: Strangely, the organization is called the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Apparently, it does not believe CO2 is causing global greening.]
Elite Europeans Losing Influence Resent Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal, Jan 23, 2025
If you don’t know what Davos is, don’t worry about it. It’s not that important, in some ways. I mean, it’s not doing a lot of good for the rest of us.
Seeking a Common Ground
Margins of Error
By James D. Agresti, WUWT, Jan 24, 2025
Video and long essay
The Battle to Define Unreasonable Risk
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Jan 13, 2025
https://www.acsh.org/news/2025/01/13/battle-define-unreasonable-risk-49234
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Putting Us First in International Climate Agreements
Exlecutive Order, The White House, Jan 20, 2025
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements
(b) The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit written formal notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, or any relevant party, of the United States’ withdrawal from any agreement, pact, accord, or similar commitment made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
(c) The United States Ambassador to the United Nations, in collaboration with the Secretary of State and Secretary of the Treasury, shall immediately cease or revoke any purported financial commitment made by the United States under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
4 major climate, energy moves included in Trump’s Day 1 executive orders
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 21, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5099301-trump-day-one-energy-climate-policies-executive-orders
Another executive order Trump signed directs the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revisit its 2009 finding that climate change is dangerous, a key policy that underlies many agency regulations.
In 2007, the Supreme Court ruled that the EPA has the authority to regulate planet-warming gases if it determines they pose a threat to public health. In 2009, it did just that, saying that greenhouse gases “endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.”
Amendment 109: Removing DEIA Requirements from ROSES-2024
By Staff, NASA, Accessed Jan 24, 2025 [H/t Willie Soon]
https://science.nasa.gov/researchers/solicitations/roses-2024/amendment-109-removing-deia-requirements-from-roses-2024
Link to: NASA Release of Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES)-2024
By Staff, NASA, Feb 14, 2024
https://astrobiology.nasa.gov/news/nasa-release-of-research-opportunities-in-space-and-earth-science-roses-2024
On January 20th, 2025, the President of the United States of America signed an Executive Order entitled “Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions”. This Order repealed Executive Order 14035, “Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility in the Federal Workforce.” It also directed agencies to take immediate action to identify and terminate DEIA initiatives and programs.
A National Energy Council Is the Right Direction for the Environment
By Alina Clough, Real Clear Energy, Jan 17, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/17/a_national_energy_council_is_the_right_direction_for_the_environment_1085433.html
Trump Admin Taking Out the NASA Trash
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 23, 2025
U.S. Climate Policy: Turnaround Time for Trump
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 22, 2025
Climate Change Weekly # 532 — Energy, Climate Top Agenda Items for Trump’s Busy First Days: Pt. 1
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Jan 24, 2025
Changing Weather
Historic’ Snowstorm Impacting Southern States
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 21, 2025
It is ironic that the day after President Trump essentially moved to nullify U.S. Climate Policy, the coldest and deepest winter storm in over 40 years descends on the country.
New Arctic Climate Discovered
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2025
First Tracks In The Snow
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 22, 2025
Empty beaches in Florida this morning, a great opportunity to make first tracks.
Oh, that winter
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
The problem in Britain, and much of Europe, is also that cold days are often not windy, so ruining Brontë country doesn’t save Miliband country. Nor can you heat your home or cook your food with empty rhetoric from #10 Downing Street:
“Our mission to deliver clean power by 2030 will replace our dependency on unstable fossil fuel markets with clean, homegrown power controlled in Britain, which is the best way to protect bill payers and boost our energy independence.”
The Highest Pressure in Ten Years
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 23, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-highest-pressure-in-ten-years.html
My group has done regional climate simulations assuming aggressive increases in CO2. … global warming generally leads to lower pressures. This makes sense: warmer air is less dense, which leads to lower pressure below.
[SEPP Comment: High winds are driven by pressure gradients, a hole in the arguments that “climate change” causes strong Santa Ana winds.]
Visitech.ai – Data Made Simple – Weather History
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2025
Video of Heller explaining a commercial app
Flooding Of January 1862
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2025
117 MPH Winds In Ireland
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 24, 2025
Changing Climate
Central Japan Was 3°C (And Up To 7°C) Warmer Than Today Throughout The Early To Mid-Holocene
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 24, 2025
Link to paper: Holocene Temperature Trend Inferred From Oxygen and Carbonate Clumped Isotope Profiles of a Stalagmite Collected From a Maritime Area of Central Honshu, Japan
By Akira Murata, et al., Island Arc, 2025
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/iar.70002
Changing Seas
Surprise! The North Atlantic Current is Stable
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 19, 2025
Link to paper: Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
By Jens Terhaar, et al., Nature Communications, Jan 15, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55297-5.epdf?sharing_token=ncQv7sy98OLw6x01mk2TbNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OUccky7MCLb6P7hOMxu_R9GbpPfrEii213wNlOsR_VCqlDRHfeW6rb-kwfx9CySqDwRttJ0hNHoaUmC9ozzTWfdehHykOvN1l5amMOTAy_bYBdI8HZAtnWW2OZTfYX8_A%3D
From the abstract: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for global ocean carbon and heat uptake and controls the climate around the North Atlantic.
Based on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products, the decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5°N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017 although substantial variability exists at all latitudes.
AMOC Alarmism Doesn’t Stick (Wunsch caution)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 23, 2025
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Your cappuccino is safe despite climate fearmongering
By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Jan 13, 2025
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/01/your_cappuccino_is_safe_despite_climate_fearmongering.html
Lowering Standards
Add World Health Organization (WHO) to your List of Dishonest Climate Crisis Propagandists: Ebola hype.
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 23, 2025
The WHO propagandists want to convince all the gullible people that a 0.4 C rise in temperature and a 1.5 mm decrease in dry season precipitation over 120 years is a climate crisis increasing deadly diseases like Ebola.
[SEPP Comment: Another UN agency that is not to be trusted.]
The frights of climate catastrophe in the disco era
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Examiner, Jan 19, 2025
I was an undergraduate student of meteorology at Penn State in the mid-70s and, even with published papers to the contrary, there was a real concern about the emergence of a new ice age.
Storm Eowyn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
Well, the Met Office got the headline it wanted!
What they forgot to tell us is that Drumalbin is at the top of an 800 ft hill in Lanarkshire:
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Forget About Nuclear War, Hot Weather Is Biggest Disaster, Say Standard
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 18, 2025
The End Of Snow
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 24, 2025
Every ten years the New York Times announces the end of snow, or the endless summer.
Latest one, Jan 2, 2024
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
Will the ravages of global warming never cease? The latest is that the inauguration of Donald Trump had to be moved indoors due to… hurricanes? Drought? Wildfires? Heat waves? No um heh heh that is “because of a frigid weather forecast in the nation’s capital Monday”. However, NBC assures us that “Inauguration Day is often cold, but Monday looks to be especially brisk.” Brisk. Not cold. Drat that global brisking.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
And iffn they don’t?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
Which is of course that “a global mean temperature in the range of 1.35 °C to 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial value, meaning global temperatures in 2025 will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 12th consecutive year.” Interestingly, there seems to be a margin of error of 0.2 percent in what will happen in 2025… but a precision of 0.01 percent in what it was like in 1850. How does that one work? Well, see we have this computer…
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Are Weather Warnings More Frequent
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Government by Hysteria: The Climate and Covid Hobgoblins Begin to Fade
By Tilak Doshi, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 23, 2025
Questioning European Green
Twenty-five years of German energy transition: a way not to go
The German „Energy Transition” has failed and its interventions in the economy and nature will burden the country for generations to come: disposal of obsolete wind and solar plants, restoration of the landscape and development of a reliable electricity supply. How could it be that this costly mistake has remained unchallenged to this day?
By Dr. Hans Hofmann-Reinecke, Cape Town, CLINTEL, Accessed Jan 22, 2025
Germany’s Industry Is Being Destroyed By Constitutional Tampering And Judicial Trickery
By Fred Mueller (EIKE) Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 22, 2025
Lord Frost joins Net Zero Watch
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 19, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/lord-frost-joins-nzw
Net Zero Watch, founded by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Lawson, highlights the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. Lord Frost has long been a critic of the UK’s current energy policy, and his appointment reflects the importance that he ascribes to this issue. He will not be remunerated for this role.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Free Our Energy Sector From Crippling Regulations and Inflationary Spending on So-Called “Green Energy”
By John R. Hays, Jr., Real Clear Energy, Jan 23, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/23/free_our_energy_sector_from_crippling_regulations_and_inflationary_spending_on_so-called_green_energy_1086551.html
Funding Issues
The Tide of Accountability is Finally Rolling In
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 24, 2025
Both Nature and Science magazine lament the “unprecedented” decisions to halt NIH grant-review meetings, travel, and non-emergency communications. A chorus of voices within the research community describes these measures as “devastating,” “unfair,” and even a “cataclysm.” What’s actually happening? The Trump administration is simply pressing the pause button to evaluate how $47 billion of taxpayer money is being spent by the NIH.
The Political Games Continue
Captain of a ghost ship
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
The eyes of the world are currently not fixed on Canada, as so often. But some of the eyes in this country, and even outside it, are fixed on the race to see who will become captain of the shipwrecked HMCS Liberal as Canada’s former “natural governing party” goes under for what may be the last time.
He did that
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
Speaking of Glasgow and trendy climate policies that haven’t aged well, and of international man of progress Mark Carney, what about GFANZ? For it was also in November 2021 at Glasgow that, with exquisite timing, he launched the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero that aimed to unite the capitalists of the world to finance only Net Zero by 2050 projects. And the collapse of his vaunted GFANZ is so spectacular, and ignominious, that it deserves its own separate item. Banks rushed into its Net-Zero Banking Alliance subsidiary, trailing clouds of shiny green virtue.
Can the Coalition unwind Labor’s disastrous economy [Australia]
By Alan Moran, His Blog, Jan 24, 2025
https://amoran.substack.com/p/can-the-coalition-unwind-labors-disastrous?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1824724&post_id=155660715&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Litigation Issues
Which Time Was DoE Lying? GAO Asks Court
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Jan 23, 2025
Elephants are not people, Colorado Supreme Court rules
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Jan 23, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5102560-colorado-supreme-court-decision-elephants-habeas-corpus
Responding to a petition from an animal rights group, the Colorado Supreme Court decided that although these female African elephants are “majestic,” the “interests protected by the great writ of habeas corpus does not extend to animals.”
[SEPP Comment: What about cockroaches?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Don’t Turn Back: The Great Debate on Energy Subsidies
By Andrea Clabough, Real Clear Energy, Jan 21, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/21/dont_turn_back_the_great_debate_on_energy_subsidies_1086180.html
Beginning in the 1970s, the Department of Energy acknowledged the vast potential of horizontal drilling techniques – then expensive, difficult and uneconomic – with a $92 million research investment.
A vast array of emerging energy technologies gained a tailwind through the IRA, including carbon capture and removal, hydrogen production and its end use opportunities, biofuels, battery innovation and production, geothermal, offshore wind and advanced nuclear. More mature technologies, such as solar and onshore wind, gained clarified and extended incentives as well as new credit mechanisms designed to grow their supply chains within the U.S. while employing unionized workers.
[SEPP Comment: DOE subsidized technical research for the energy industry on the belief that the US was running out of oil and natural gas. RESEARCH in directional drilling greatly helped in keeping costs down and proved to be a great advancement when applied to hydrologic fracturing coupled with using sand to keep the fractures open. A process developed independently by George Mitchell. Today, the misleadingly named Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is subsidizing DEPLOYMENT of wind and solar even though they are unreliable and have limited use. Deployment is not technical research.]
White House budget office narrows scope of executive order restricting IRA funds
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 22, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5100846-white-house-budget-office-guidance-ira-funds
In the Wednesday memo, the Trump OMB clarified that the pause “only applies to funds supporting programs, projects or activities that may be implicated by the policy established in Section 2 of the order,” which includes funding related to climate change mitigation and incentives for electric vehicle charging.
Biden’s DOE Finalizes $15 Billion Loan Guarantee to California’s PG&E
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 17, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/bidens-doe-finalizes-15-billion-loan-guarantee-to-californias-pge/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Energy Issues – Non-US
Iran’s Energy Crisis
By Brenda Shaffer, Dalga Khatinoglu, Real Clear Energy, Jan 20, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/20/irans_energy_crisis_1085448.html
The energy crisis is having a huge impact on Iran’s economic output. Between 30-50% of Iran’s factories are currently idle due to lack of regular power. The crisis also affects Iran’s oil production, since gas for injection into fields is lacking. Iran’s steel production declined in half over the last year due to the energy crisis. Several of Iran’s refineries are not operating due to the lack of power, adding to the refined fuel shortage. This creates a shortage of refined products for the domestic market as well as cuts into export revenue. Due to the energy crisis, some 22 cement plants are idled, and pharmaceutical production has declined.
[SEPP Comment: A poster child for the goals of the IPCC?]
NESO In Wonderland
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
UK National Energy System Operator (NESO)
Net Zero Watch welcomes NESO audit
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 22, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/neso-audit
Calls for results to be made public
Winning back the Net Zero billions
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 20, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/making-plans-for-rachel
The Chancellor is short of money – alarmingly so, after her botched budget and Ed Miliband’s eco-posturing managed to wreck investor confidence. Ms Reeves therefore urgently needs to save money, and let’s face it, a ‘war on waste’ is no more likely to deliver under Labour than it did under the Conservatives. Until we get a grip on the bureaucrats, it’s not going to happen.
However, it’s still interesting to consider how much we could save by cancelling Net Zero.
Net Zero Is Unstoppable–Says Ed Miliband
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change of the United Kingdom
Energy Issues — US
Chris Wright: An Advocate for Human Prosperity
By David Avella, Real Clear Energy, Jan 21, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/21/chris_wright_an_advocate_for_human_prosperity_1086182.html
Trump 47: Drill, Baby, Drill 2.0
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 24, 2025
EIA’s current forecast already has US oil production increasing by nearly 2 mmbbl/d relative to Peak Biden.
Trump issues orders aiming to drill in contentious Alaska areas, revisit Biden climate rules
By Rachel Frazin and Zach Budryk, The Hill, Jan 20, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5097241-trump-executive-orders-oil-drilling-climate-electric-vehicles
How Trump Can Unlock America’s Energy Options
The U.S. should conduct a sweeping scientific survey of offshore oil and gas resources.
By Mark Mills, City Journal, Jan 14, 2025
https://www.city-journal.org/article/biden-oil-gas-ban-trump-exploration
Not since the presidency of James K. Polk, circa 1845, has a single president made such a large change as Joe Biden in the territorial scale of the United States. Polk, however, expanded America’s domain by 768 million acres, adding Texas, Oregon, and Mexico’s ceded territory, while Biden has contracted it—at least in terms of useful access—with his “sweeping” January 6 order banning oil and natural gas exploration or development on 625 million acres of offshore territory.
Trump declares energy emergency
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 20, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5096946-trump-declares-energy-emergency
Hochul’s fracking foolishness locks $1 TRILLION of energy underground — and hurts New Yorkers
By Jonathan Lesser, New York Post, Jan 2, 2025
https://nypost.com/2025/01/02/opinion/jonathan-lesser-hochuls-fracking-foolishness-locks-1t-of-energy-underground
Lost in New York’s green energy quest and environmental hysteria is any concern about the economic well-being of its own citizens — especially Upstate residents whose communities have suffered decades of economic decline.
Fracking has for years offered an opportunity to reverse that trend by creating thousands of new jobs, just as it has in Pennsylvania.
Still, New York Democrats, led by Hochul, choose to waste that chance.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
UK Worse Place In World To Put Solar Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
Link to: Solar Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country
By Staff, World Bank Group, July 23, 2020
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-photovoltaic-power-potential-by-country
[SEPP Comment: UK is worst [despite Homewood’s headline] among the areas considered. Not considered are the Sahara, Congo, and Amazon.]
Trump freezes new outer continental shelf offshore wind leases
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 20, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5097255-trump-freezes-offshore-wind-leases
Trump pauses renewable energy approvals on public lands, waters
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 24, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5105492-trump-administration-pauses-renewable-energy-approvals-public-lands-waters
Confusion grows over offshore wind controls
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 24, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/01/24/confusion-grows-over-offshore-wind-controls
Bringing offshore wind under control will be a complex process under administrative law, which few people know much about. As a result, there is likely to be a lot of confusion and misunderstanding. Some of this will be seriously funny.
Western offshore wind EIS is MIA
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 22, 2025
https://www.cfact.org/2025/01/22/western-offshore-wind-eis-is-mia
Link to press release: DOE West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission Action Plan Charts Path to Increase Domestic Energy Production, Provide Cost Savings, Improve Grid Reliability and Local Energy Resilience, and Create Jobs
By Staff, DOE, Grid Deployment Office, Jan 16, 2025
https://www.energy.gov/gdo/articles/doe-west-coast-offshore-wind-transmission-action-plan-charts-path-increase-domestic
Link to faulty study: West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission Planning
By Staff, Department of Energy and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) [part of the Department of the Interior], Jan 15, 2025
https://www.energy.gov/gdo/west-coast-offshore-wind-transmission-planning
From Wojick: Instead of the just five leases considered in the present draft EIS the Action Plan includes about one hundred leases by 2035. These typically occur in clusters of from 5 to 20 leases. Moreover, while the total generating capacity for 2035 is 15,000 MW this grows to 33,000 MW in 2050.
Each lease contains numerous huge floating turbines each anchored to the sea floor thousands of feet below with multiple mooring lines. So, the environmental impact of each cluster is potentially enormous.
[SEPP Comment: Where is there a rigorous study showing the feasibility and cost of such a project in storm-tossed seas?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
‘Miracle’ of Green Hydrogen Becomes Fading Mirage
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Jan 20, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/20/miracle_of_green_hydrogen_becomes_fading_mirage_1085305.html
Fanciful dreams of green hydrogen powering the future have met reality. The cost of producing this much-hyped fuel will remain prohibitively high for decades to come, crushing hopes of its rapid adoption across industries.
Oops: Climate Rescuer Hydrogen 12 Times Worse For The Climate, Researchers Find
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 19, 2025
Link to paper: A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen
By Maria Sand, et al., Communications Earth & Environment, June 7, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00857-8
Plug Power Gets $1.7 Billion Loan Guarantee From DOE to Produce Hydrogen Fuel
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 19, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/plug-power-gets-1-7-billion-loan-guarantee-from-doe-to-produce-hydrogen-fuel/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
[SEPP Comment: On Earth hydrogen is not a fuel. See three links immediately above.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Implications of the Moss Battery Plant Fir
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Jan 18, 2025
The alleged impacts of air pollution from peaking power plants pale in comparison to the disastrous direct and indirect impacts of a battery energy storage fire. Those risks must be considered as the energy transition implementation plan is rolled out. Crossing fingers and hoping that a fire will not happen is a prescription for disaster.
Link to PEAK Coalition website: Bringing Renewable Energy & Equity to New York City
Accessed Jan 23, 2025
https://www.peakcoalition.org
The PEAK coalition—UPROSE, THE POINT CDC, New York City Environmental Justice Alliance (NYC-EJA), New York Lawyers for the Public Interest (NYLPI), and Clean Energy Group (CEG)— has come together to end the long-standing pollution burden from power plants on the city’s most climate-vulnerable people.
California Battery Storage: Continuing Fire Problems
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Jan 24, 2025
In Conservative Texas, Energy Storage Systems Deliver Major Cost Savings to Consumers
By Greg Brophy, Real Clear Energy, Jan 23, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/23/in_conservative_texas_energy_storage_systems_deliver_major_cost_savings_to_consumers_1086788.html
Link to report: Significant Energy Storage Capacity Additions Keep Costs Low and Power Reliable in Texas
The addition of 5 GW of energy storage in Texas over the last year helped the state avoid
energy conservation appeals and contributed to $750 million in energy cost reductions.
By Staff, American Clean Power Association, Accessed Jan 24, 2025
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of the costs of the 5 GW, nor the difference between stored energy GWh and nameplate power capacity in GW. (how many hours can the storage system produce 5 GW?) The ERCOT grid is constrained by foolish wind requirements. Would wind and battery storage exist without Federal and state subsidies that are not included in the calculations?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
5 electric school buses burst into flames in Wilbraham, Mass while charging overnight.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Some reports put the number at 4.]
BVRLA warns of coming EV residual value storm
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
Link to: BVRLA warns of coming EV residual value storm
By Gareth Roberts, Fleet News, Jan 15, 2025
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/bvrla-warns-of-coming-ev-residual-value-storm
But, the BVRLA says in its latest quarterly report, this has only been possible because EVs constitute barely 10% of their de-fleeted vehicles.
Looking ahead, EVs now represent 37% of BVRLA members’ total lease fleet and 44% of new additions, with some companies already well above the 50% threshold.
Oh, those EVs
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 22, 2025
So, to review the bidding, the Canadian government is no longer subsidizing consumer purchases of EVs but still requiring us to buy them from companies who scored billions in subsidies to make unwanted batteries for a market that just vanished.
Nissan’s New Expensive Electric Toy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2025
Electric cars will be unaffordable for anybody without their own driveways.
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Capture & Property Rights: There Is No Justification for Using Carbon Capture and Storage Projects to Abrogate Property Rights
By Jack McPherrin, H. Sterling Burnett, Daylea DuVall Camp, The Heartland Institute, Jan 21, 2025
California Dreaming
The Origin of The Los Angeles Wildfires
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 19, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2025-01-21T19:53:00-08:00&max-results=2
Scapegoating Climate To Hide Callous Government Malfeasance – OpEd
By Paul Dressen, Eurasia Review, Jan 20, 2025
Abject failures from Biden, Newsom, LAFD and others can no longer be ignored
California has 33,000,000 acres of federal, state and private forestland – equivalent to Wisconsin. As the state’s population expanded, forests and wildlife increasingly merged with human habitats. And yet federal and state land managers – compelled by ideology, activists, legislators and judges – have steadfastly refused to permit timber cutting, tree thinning or brush removal, or take other actions that would reduce the likelihood of conflagrations.
Quantifying the Upside of More Lawns
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Jan 22, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859763?e=cd9fa89d1e
The biggest mistake farmers and urban more-water activists can make is to succumb to the divide and conquer strategy so effectively waged by California’s scarcity lobby. Constructing desalination plants could be paid for by simply canceling SB 1157, a water rationing annoyance that will cost an estimated $7 billion, saving about 400,000-acre feet of water per year, while turning otherwise lush urban environments into micromanaged deserts.
Health, Energy, and Climate
The Hidden Renewable Energy in Central Asia
By Brenda Shaffer, Svante Cornell, Real Clear Energy, Jan 22, 225
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/22/the_hidden_renewable_energy_in_central_asia_1086449.html
One of the biggest threats to human health, and a major source of air pollution, is regularly hidden in statistical reports as “renewable energy:” the burning of dung, wood, and lump coal. While most of the world receives its energy from fossil fuels, over two billion people on the globe do not have regular access to modern energy and rely on traditional burning of gathered materials.
Red Dye #3: Bad Law Defeats Fact
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Jan 20, 2025
https://www.acsh.org/news/2025/01/20/red-dye-3-bad-law-defeats-fact-49251
More importantly, the Delaney Clause is based upon old, incorrect science surrounding the “cause” of cancer. In 1958, when the Delaney Clause was written, it was widely viewed that cancer was caused by a “single hit” mutation that caused changes in DNA. Subsequently, we have found that DNA repair enzymes routinely repair damaged DNA and that different mechanisms, including enhanced cell replication, can result in cancer. Today, scientists believe that cancer is unlikely to be caused by a single mutation and is a complex, multifactorial disease.
[SEPP Comment: Another example of the absurdities caused by the Linear No Threshold model.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
MPs to Consider Bill Likely to Cause Mass Starvation, Death, Disease and Societal Collapse in Near Future
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 21, 2025
The bill is a thinly disguised attempt using meaningless climate and nature crisis verbosity to ration and control almost everything that citizens consume.
See link immediately below
Can The CAN
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 19, 2025
The Climate and Nature Bill [CAN] has its second reading this week.
Airport Runways Cause Bad Weather
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 23, 2025
About Those Blue Zones
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 22, 2025
“People in Blue Zones live long lives by following habits that promote physical health, mental health, and social connections. These habits include:…”
Justin Rowlatt [Climate Editor BBC] Thinks China Will Save The Planet
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 23, 2025
Notable & Quotable: ‘Oral Health Justice’
‘We cannot have oral health without reproductive health, without mental health, without gender-affirming health, or without physical health.’
WSJ, Jan 24, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/notable-quotable-oral-health-justice-progressive-gender-dei-trump-executive-order-d022dac4?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s
From a Jan. 22 statement posted on social media by the American Institute of Dental Public Health:
ARTICLES
1. Sensible Strings for California Fire Aid
How to help the state prevent worse wildfire damage in the future.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 23, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/california-fire-relief-congress-conditions-donald-trump-gavin-newsom-9f7ffc52?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“President Trump visits California on Friday to survey the wildfire damage, and no doubt he’ll hear requests for federal aid. A relevant question is whether this aid should be conditioned on policies that will reduce future damage.
Democrats want a blank check, and they’re comparing the fires to hurricanes. The fires are horrific and the damage in property and lives enormous. But the fire damage is worse than it would have been if not for the policy mistakes in Los Angeles and Sacramento on water and forest management.
Washington has in the past tied aid to financially troubled cities and Puerto Rico. New York state established a financial control board to impose fiscal reforms on a city that couldn’t muster the political nerve to make changes without outside pressure. The California fires are both a natural and man-made disaster, but California’s political leaders seem incapable of reform. What then should Congress and the Trump Administration ask for?
One bad idea is tying a debt-ceiling increase to wildfire relief. Democrats would accuse Republicans of holding suffering Californians hostage for an unrelated GOP priority, and they’d do the same to GOP states after the next disaster. A financial control board to manage state fiscal policy is desirable if probably a political bridge too far.
But reforms directly connected to the wildfires and their severity make sense. Take the bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act, which the House passed Thursday, 279-141. Its co-sponsors include California Democrats Jimmy Panetta, Jim Costa, Ami Bera, John Garamendi and Scott Peters. Their districts have been damaged by wildfires caused in part by decades of fire suppression that have led to a buildup of combustible vegetation. Sixty-four Democrats voted aye.
A permitting thicket impedes proper management on federal lands, including in the Santa Monica Mountains and Angeles National Forest where fires have burned. It takes the U.S. Forest Service on average 4.7 years to begin a prescribed burn—9.4 years if an environmental impact statement is challenged in court—and 3.6 years for tree thinning and brush clearing projects.
The Fix Our Forests Act would clear some of the regulatory overgrowth by prohibiting courts from blocking fire mitigation projects because of technical flaws in environmental reviews. Federal agencies wouldn’t have to redo land management plans every time a new species is deemed to be threatened.
The bill would also let utilities clear trees within 150 feet of electric lines on federal land (the current limit is 10 feet), so they’d be less vulnerable to catching fire in heavy winds. Utility vegetation management plans would be automatically approved after four months.” [Boldface added]
The editorial discusses that extension of the current clearing limit will help utilities, but it will also help protect residential communities. The editorial concludes with:
“Donald Trump and Congress could also roll back national monuments designated by previous Presidents for ‘preservation’ under the Antiquities Act. Democrats have used such designations to limit logging and mining, but they can also interfere with forest management.
President Biden in his final days established the Sáttítla Highlands National Monument on some 224,000 acres of federal land in northern California close to where several forests have recently burned. Last year he expanded Barack Obama’s San Gabriel Mountains monument to include areas above Altadena that have been burning.
Mr. Biden cited the need to protect supposedly sacred features such as indigenous artifacts, some five dozen species of plants, trees and critters, ‘rare anorthosite complex rocks that are 1.2 billion years old,’ ‘ruins of grand recreation resorts’ (burned by a fire in 1896), and ‘a missile unit built during the Cold War.’ Yes, a sacred missile site.
The way for Mr. Trump to present this when he visits California isn’t to tell the state the feds will make Los Angeles suffer unless it toes his line. The way to do it is to offer sympathy and help while explaining that the goal should be make the state more resilient to fires and a variable climate. Voters will get that.
Mr. Trump can explain to voters what the state’s policy failures are, even if he can’t force Sacramento to change them. But Republicans in Washington can at least fix the federal government’s blunders that make wildfires more damaging than they need to be.”
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