Wednesday, June 12, 2024

L A Times Editorial Claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is Unsupported by NOAA’s Climate Data

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Guest Essay by Larry Hamlin

The L A Times published an Editorial claiming that the “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record breaking heat” and mandates that  a “climate emergency” must be declared but then fails to present any data graph or tables in its editorial.

The opening L A Times editorial paragraph claims that for California “the last few months have been more than 2 degrees hotter than average”. This claim is erroneous as demonstrated in the discussion below.

NOAA’s data for the maximum temperatures experienced in California for the month of February 2024 as well as all February months for years from 1895 to 2023 are shown below.

NOAA’s data shows the mean February maximum temperature over its base period interval of 1901 – 2000 is 55.6 degrees F compared to California’s February 2024 maximum value of 56.0 degrees F (0.4 degrees F above the mean) as indicated in NOAA’s data table below versus the Times distorted and false claim of “2 degrees hotter than average”.

More importantly, the February 2024 maximum temperature of 56 degrees F in California is only the 62nd highest out of 130 total February recorded highest values with the 2024 temperature clearly not representing “a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” as falsely hyped by the L A Times editorial.  

NOAA’s data for the maximum temperatures experienced in California for the month of March 2024 are shown below along with all other March temperatures for the years 1895 through 2023. 

NOAA’s data shows a mean March maximum temperature over its base period interval of 1901 – 2000 is 60.0 degrees F compared to the states March 2024 maximum value of 59.7 degrees F (-0.3 degrees F below the mean) as indicated in NOAA’s data table below versus the Times distorted and false claim of “2 degrees hotter than average”.

More importantly, the March 2024 maximum temperature of 59.7 degrees F in California is only the 57th highest out of 130 total March recorded highest values with this temperature clearly not representing “a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” as falsely hyped by the L A Times editorial.  

NOAA’s maximum temperature data for California shows that the temperatures experienced in February and March in 2024 are very close to “average” for these months (0.4 degrees above and -0.3 degrees below NOAAs base period interval 1901-2000 mean values respectively) representing only the 62nd and 57th maximum temperatures respectively experienced in California for these months out of 130 maximum measured temperatures for each of these two months.

The Times flawed claim that February and March 2024 (“the last few months” as noted in their article) are about “2 degrees above average” is based on their misrepresentation of the February and March 2024 monthly temperature outcomes by averaging these months with 9 additional previous months and then erroneously claiming these cherry-picked 10-month long intervals (May through February and June through March) mean values represent the February and March 2024 mean value outcomes which is of course incorrect.   

The Times comparison is meaningless in addressing changes occurring in February and March temperatures over time because year 2024 outcomes for these months are being determined for temperatures associated with 10-month-long cherry-picked interval averages instead of averages of NOAAs February and March measured temperature outcomes over its 1895 to 2024 historical tracking period.

Additionally, it is clearly obvious on inspection of NOAA’s February and March California maximum temperature graphs shown above that nothing remotely resembling “a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is occurring as so ridiculously hyped in the Times article.

NOAA’s monthly maximum temperature graph and data for the state of California for all months during the years 1895 through March 2024 establishes a mean maximum temperature of  70.0 degrees F during this period as shown below with by far the highest maximum temperature experienced in the state being in July 1931 during the “dust bowl” era of the 1930s along with many other year hot July and August months.

NOAA’s California maximum temperature data table (with the highest values shown below) establishes that the February and March 2024 temperatures are far below the mean 70-degree F value while representing only the 312 (56.0 degrees F) and 480 (59.7 degrees F) respectively out of the highest 1551 total data values respectively.

NOAA’s California maximum temperature data, including February and March 2024, clearly does not support the Times absurd alarmist claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat”

NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. Maximum Temperatures graph and data table for all months during the years 1895 through March 2024 are shown below with the mean maximum temperature of 64.0 degrees F during this period with the highest ever occurring in July 1936 and 1934 with four of the top ten occurring in the “dust bowl” 1930s era and many other year hot July and August months.

NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. maximum temperature data table (with the highest values shown below) establishes that the February and March 2024 temperatures are far below the mean 64-degree F value while representing only the 482nd (52.18 degrees F) and 618th (56.61 degrees F) respectively out of the highest 1551 total data values respectively.

NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. maximum temperature data clearly establishes that the Times alarmist claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is completely false.

Additionally, NOAA’s USCRN Contiguous U.S. maximum temperature anomaly data shown below for all months from January 2005 through March 2024 show no established upward trending signature for these monthly temperature anomalies during this period with the March 2024 maximum anomaly of 1.28 degrees F far below the March 2012 maximum temperature anomaly peak value of 7.72 degrees F.

The Times alarmist claims that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” are false and unsupported by valid and relevant analysis of NOAA’s California and Contiguous U.S. measured maximum absolute temperature and maximum temperature anomaly data as provided above.

NOAA’s Global Time Series provides monthly average temperature anomaly data for 16 global regions which demonstrate the trend of these anomaly outcomes for these regions over varying time periods. 

Shown below are results for 9 of these regions which demonstrate the significantly varied outcomes from these regions establishing the wide divergence of global climate behavior across the world that clearly illustrate global climate cannot be validly characterized by a single global average temperature anomaly value as frequently and erroneously attempted by climate alarmists.

The Times discusses NOAA global average temperature anomaly data updated through March 2024 but conceals that the global average temperature anomaly data values vary significantly throughout the world’s many differing climate regions.

Even though global CO2 levels are ubiquitous in the atmosphere the average temperature anomaly values associated with world are not homogeneous but a highly heterogeneous patchwork across the globe completely contrary to the flawed claim by climate alarmists that the global average temperature anomaly value can be used to characterize all global climate.

This patchwork discrepancy clearly demonstrates that multiple nonuniform natural weather and climate causalities dominate the global climate behavior versus the data unsupported hype that man made climate change is dominant – a highly significant outcome unaddressed by the Times.  

The Times editorial concealed significant global average temperature anomaly data differences that are presented and summarized below.

NOAA’s Global Land area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome (shown by both graph and table presentations) is shown below for March 2024 revealing a decline from March 2023 (2.09 degrees C versus 2.19 degrees C respectively) with the year 2016 (with El Niño event year values of 2.52 and 2.46 degrees C in February and March respectively) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcomes

The starting year value for these average temperature anomaly graphs is selected as year 2005 so the detail of the monthly changes in the period 2005 through 2024 are clearly visible on the graphs so that the validity or lack of validity of the L A Times editorial claim that the “planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” can be readily observed and displayed

The Global Land area region is where Earth’s 8 billion people live. Based on NOAA’s global land area average temperature anomaly data the March 2024 anomaly value is exceeded by the prior February and March year 2016 El Niño driven outcomes which remain the highest global land average temperature anomaly values as clearly shown on the graph and table above.

The Times editorial flawed claim that the “planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Global Land region temperature data results with the year 2016 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Northern Hemisphere Land area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (2.39 degrees C versus 2.62 degrees C respectively) with year 2016 (an El Niño event year values of 3.17 and 3.12 degrees C in February and March respectively) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcomes.

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Northern Hemisphere Land region results with year 2016 highest average temperature anomaly outcomes exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Asia Land area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (2.52 degrees C versus 4.01 degrees C respectively) with year 2020 (4.26 degrees C in February) remaining the highest average temperature anomaly measured outcome.

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Asia Land region results with year 2020 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Oceania Land area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (0.93 degrees C versus 1.10 degrees C respectively) with year 2019 (2.61 degrees C for December 2019) remaining the highest average temperature anomaly measured outcome

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Oceania Land area region outcomes with year 2019 highest average temperature anomaly results exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s East N Pacific Land and Ocean area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (0.87 degrees C versus 0.35 degrees C respectively) with year 2015 (1.76 degrees C in October) remaining the highest average temperature anomaly measured outcome.

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s East N Pacific Land and Ocean area region results with year 2015 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Gulf of Mexico Land and Ocean area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (0.95 degrees C versus 1.51 degrees C respectively) with year 2020 (1.73 degrees C in April) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcome

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Gulf of Mexico Land and Ocean area region results with year 2020 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding year all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Hawaiian Region Land and Ocean area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (0.31 degrees C versus 0.61 degrees C respectively) with year 2015 (1.85 degrees C in September) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcome.

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Hawaiian Land and Ocean area region results with year 2015 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Arctic Land and Ocean area region average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (2.42 degrees C versus 2.85 degrees C respectively) with year 2016 (an El Niño year 4.99 degrees C) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcome

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Arctic Land and Ocean area region results with the El Niño year 2016 highest average temperature anomaly outcome exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s Antarctic Land and Ocean region area average temperature anomaly measured outcome is shown below for March 2024 revealing the decline from March 2023 (0.24 degrees C versus 0.50 degrees C respectively) with the year 1996 (2.23 degrees C – not shown the graph time line below) remaining the highest measured average temperature anomaly outcome.

The Times editorial flawed claim that “The planet is experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s Antarctic Land and Ocean area region results with the year 1996 highest average temperature anomaly outcome (some 28 years ago) exceeding all years from 1895 through March 2024 as provided in both NOAA graph and table values.

NOAA’s graphs and tables presenting its average temperature anomaly data outcomes over the 129+ year long period from 1895 through March 2024 demonstrate that the “planets” Global Land region, Northern Hemisphere Land region, Asia Land region, Oceania Land region, East N Pacific Land and Ocean region, Gulf of Mexico Land and Ocean region, Hawaiian Land and Ocean region, Arctic Land and Ocean region and Antarctic Land and Ocean region are not experiencing “a horrifying streak of record breaking heat” outcomes.

These NOAA global regions highest ever measured average temperature anomaly results are in years 2016, 2020, 2019, 2019, 2015, 2020, 2015, 2016 and 1996 respectively.         

Therefore, NOAA’s Global absolute temperature and average temperature anomaly measured data establishes that the planet is NOT “experiencing a horrifying streak of record-breaking heat”. 

This L A Times hyped claim of global “horrifying streak of record-breaking heat” is falsified by NOAA’s 129+ yearlong measured climate data outcomes as measured over 9 of 16 NOAA’s global climate regions, the Contiguous U.S. and California as presented in detail in the analysis provided above. 

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